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General Discussion >> Other Weather Events

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
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A New Forum
      #14997 - Sun Jun 06 2004 11:02 AM

Welcome to the new "Other Weather Events" Forum. Based on your inputs and suggestions, we have decided to give this type of forum a try. Use it for discussions on significant weather events that are not directly associated with a tropical system.

The keyword is 'significant', i.e., don't clutter the Forum with comments on your average 'garden variety' thunderstorm or any other event that is really not unusual. Good examples would include analysis or observations associated with severe weather or extreme conditions. Events like droughts, floods, a tornado or a tornado outbreak, hail, extreme winds or temperatures or rainfall or snowfall or other unusual phenomenon all have a place here.

Remember that this is a Forum under the General discussion Group, so the same site rules apply. It is not a Chat Room, so please attempt to limit your 'one-liners' to a heads-up on a pending event or a 'thank you' for information provided by another user. The intent was to give these types of discussions a 'home' where those that were interested could visit the forum and those that were not could bypass it.

Let me know if I've forgotten something or if you have any questions or thoughts on this.

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global warming or some other reason? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #17029 - Fri Jul 30 2004 09:45 AM

Disaster at sea: global warming hits UK birds
By Michael McCarthy Environment Editor
30 July 2004

Hundreds of thousands of Scottish seabirds have failed to breed this summer in a wildlife catastrophe which is being linked by scientists directly to global warming.

The massive unprecedented collapse of nesting attempts by several seabird species in Orkney and Shetland is likely to prove the first major impact of climate change on Britain.

In what could be a sub-plot from the recent disaster movie, The Day After Tomorrow, a rise in sea temperature is believed to have led to the mysterious disappearance of a key part of the marine food chain - the sandeel, the small fish whose great teeming shoals have hitherto sustained larger fish, marine mammals and seabirds in their millions.

In Orkney and Shetland, the sandeel stocks have been shrinking for several years, and this summer they have disappeared: the result for seabirds has been mass starvation. The figures for breeding failure, for Shetland in particular, almost defy belief.

More than 172,000 breeding pairs of guillemots were recorded in the islands in the last national census, Seabird 2000, whose results were published this year; this summer the birds have produced almost no young, according to Peter Ellis, Shetland area manager for the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB).

Martin Heubeck of Aberdeen University, who has monitored Shetland seabirds for 30 years, said: "The breeding failure of the guillemots is unprecedented in Europe." More than 6,800 pairs of great skuas were recorded in Shetland in the same census; this year they have produced a handful of chicks - perhaps fewer than 10 - while the arctic skuas (1,120 pairs in the census) have failed to produce any surviving young.

The 24,000 pairs of arctic terns, and the 16,700 pairs of Shetland kittiwakes - small gulls - have "probably suffered complete failure", said Mr Ellis.

In Orkney the picture is very similar, although detailed figures are not yet available. "It looks very bad," said the RSPB's warden on Orkney mainland, Andy Knight. "Very few of the birds have raised any chicks at all."

The counting and monitoring is still going on and the figures are by no means complete: it is likely that puffins, for example, will also have suffered massive breeding failure but because they nest deep in burrows, this is not immediately obvious.

But the astonishing scale of what has taken place is already clear - and the link to climate change is being openly made by scientists. It is believed that the microscopic plankton on which tiny sandeel larvae feed are moving northwards as the sea water warms, leaving the baby fish with nothing to feed on.

This is being seen in the North Sea in particular, where the water temperature has risen by 2C in the past 20 years, and where the whole ecosystem is thought to be undergoing a "regime shift", or a fundamental alteration in the interaction of its component species. "Think of the North Sea as an engine, and plankton as the fuel driving it," said Euan Dunn of the RSPB, one of the world's leading experts on the interaction of fish and seabirds. "The fuel mix has changed so radically in the past 20 years, as a result of climate change, that the whole engine is now spluttering and starting to malfunction. All of the animals in the food web above the plankton, first the sandeels, then the larger fish like cod, and ultimately the seabirds, are starting to be affected."

Research last year clearly showed that the higher the temperature, the less sandeels could maintain their population level, said Dr Dunn. "The young sandeels are simply not surviving."

Although over-fishing of sandeels has caused breeding failures in the past, the present situation could not be blamed on fishing, he said. The Shetland sandeel fishery was catching so few fish that it was closed as a precautionary measure earlier this year. "Climate change is a far more likely explanation."

The spectacular seabird populations of the Northern Isles have a double importance. They are of great value scientifically, holding, for example, the world's biggest populations of great skuas. And they are of enormous value to Orkney and Shetland tourism, being the principal draw for many visitors. The national and international significance of what has happened is only just beginning to dawn on the wider political and scientific community, but some leading figures are already taking it on board.

"This is an incredible event," said Tony Juniper, director of Friends of the Earth. "The catastrophe [of these] seabirds is just a foretaste of what lies ahead.

"It shows that climate change is happening now, [with] devastating consequences here in Britain, and it shows that reducing the pollution causing changes to the earth's climate should now be the global number one political priority."

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Weather Hobbyist

Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: A New Forum [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #46510 - Thu Aug 04 2005 05:00 PM

Thanks, Ed! For the past couple of days I've noticed at least one 'micro-cyclone' form just south and perhaps a little west of the Head of Passes - and then stealthily head towards Shreveport, Louisiana, rapidly dissipating over land. I'm guessing that what currently seems to be forming south the Delta is going to be doing pretty much the same thing (if slightly more obviously this time around).

Anyway, I'm also guessing that virtually all factors relevant to the formation of similar weather in the same general location (even if only temporarily) are already detectable by modern science. In a nutshell, I'm hoping that the NOAA, NWS, NHC, and friends would someday be providing 'cartoons' tracking that sort of activity too - in addition to their wonderful 'cartoons' featuring IR, WV, etc. And thanks again!

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Weather Hobbyist

Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: A New Forum [Re: Spoken]
      #46534 - Thu Aug 04 2005 07:51 PM

Also, with TD8 seemingly extending from the North Atlantic to Puerto Rico - at least for the moment anyway - I'm wondering if all that weather apparently forming over the Great Plains has a more exotic destination in mind, even if it required a few 'connecting flights' to get there. Basically, I'm visualizing much of that warmth and moisture somehow being conveyed to an area generally south and east by a couple of major if hopefully short lived systems. Sort of like getting handed off from one system to another. As with major airlines however I'm guessing the eventual route taken might end up seeming a bit circuitous.

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Weather Hobbyist

Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: A New Forum [Re: Spoken]
      #46764 - Sat Aug 06 2005 05:21 PM

Actually, what moisture isn't being pulled from the Great Plains into the Gulf of Mexico seems to be finding its way although initially northwest, obviously to TD9 in the Atlantic. Or at least into what I understand is a large trough to the north of TD9. And with a little help from Franklin perhaps.

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Weather Master

Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: A New Forum [Re: Spoken]
      #47941 - Sun Aug 14 2005 04:09 PM

I hope this is the correct place for this but the weather is kind of odd right now. We have that upper low convection coming in from the gulf side and the afternoon thunderstorms coming from the east coast and they are going to meet over central florida again. The wind is unusal. I know that we have wind every time we have a thunderstorm but this is odd in that it seems to be more into the tree tops sort of like a cyclone does. Just noticing it. I hope it is no big deal.

God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

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Weather Watcher

Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Loc: W.Coast Fl.
Re: A New Forum [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #67428 - Sun Jun 25 2006 11:06 AM

Weather modification?What weather modification??

Edited by Ned (Sun Jun 25 2006 11:08 AM)

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