LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I can't access his tropical update video until I get home, but in his daily report, he has no changes to the thinking that there will be no development anywhere until conditions get more favorable 6/10 and thereafter, and that the development would be in the GOM. Several of the models are hinting at this as well.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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You're probably right Cyeye on that.The shear keeps weighing back and forth.The circulation seems to be at the mid-level if it's thier.You can see another set of clouds below high level clouds reacting differently in the enviroment(stationary).I said yesterday give it 48 hrs. see what happens tomorrow.
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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Sorry, I was the anonymous.
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CocoaBeach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg
It's a wait and see... 
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CocoaBeach
Unregistered
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Distrubance leaving Africa:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg
It's a wait and see...
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Just a quick note to all posters. Ed gave me the go ahead to let everyone know that one of the new updated features on this site is the "Calendar". It is an appropriate place to place your "first storm" guess. For those of you who've made such a guess, I'll be placing your predictions there. Also, if you update your profile ("my home"), another new feature is the "birthday" section. If you fill in your DOB, it will be noted on the calendar (don't worry, it only lists the day & month, not the year  ). So let the board know when your b-day is, so we can give you a shout on your special day.
Finally, I've compiled everyone's 2004 predictions (at least I think I have--if I missed you or you still haven't committed, post away), and I'll be putting them up in the Storm Forum shortly. Feel free to check them all out and add to them. Sorry Bobbi, I'm not trying to copy S2K...I just think it's handy to have everyone's guesses in one spot.
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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bobbi
Unregistered
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its a good idea... darn thought the calendar could help me organize my life.. figure i would use it here more than aol lol.
anyway... someone tell me what they think of the chances of something forming in bermuda triangle close in to bahamas or off florida coast however you see it
low low shear and very wet and climatologically correct
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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That system certainly warrants a look every now and again. Meanwhile, it seems the disturbance in the Caribbean has faded away. It hardly gets a mention in the Tropical Weather Outlook. 
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Ok Phil , Got mine There.... C-YA... 
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jun 09 2004 02:48 AM)
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Hint of rotation at 44/8? Just to get some sense of excitement. Cheers!
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Didn't work Steve.. no one around here is going to get real excited without the real thing showing up. Sorry Steve, know you're trying here. Appreciate you for it.
I couldn't even shout out "look the SW Carib" today.. itz is showing signs of life though and it rained in Miami today.
Good try though
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bbadon
Unregistered
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What about the MLC coming off of Mexico. If it were not for the shear in front of it, I believe it would be a good candidate for Alex.
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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It is an area that should be watched though. Things may get perculating soon though when the UL winds ease. I think we'll see a June storm> Cheers!!
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Things seem to be firing this afternoon down off of the South American Coast:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Any real chance this will get off the ground?
Seems to have some circulation associayed with it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html 
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Carl
Unregistered
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Check out visible pics just north of Tampico--looks kind of interesting.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Shear still is too strong for development in that area at the Western Gulf but the spin neverless looks interesting.If the shear wasn't present then the area would be watched more closely.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Wed Jun 09 2004 06:13 PM)
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James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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How much longer is this unfavourable shear expected to last?
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
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It seems every now and then we get one of these disturban :?:ces right up against the Mexican coast that actually becomes a TD (and rarely) a storm, for a short time.
This system does seem to be getting better organized, but, it is right on the coast. Unless it really gets 'feet wet', it won't go.
sc
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
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And it also seesm a circulation may be at the mid-levels off the Nicarauguan coast....not as distinct as the circulation on the Mx coast, which does seem to be getting better organized as time goes by....
sc :?:
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