RBL
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 10
Loc: Miami Fl
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 WONT41 KNHC 231525
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2002
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RECENT SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SEVERAL
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT CUBA...THE
BAHAMAS AND POSSIBLY SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Well, I just looked at that area too, and all I can see is something that LOOKS like a big red blob of t-storms, but I don't see it moving north at all. More east. Of course, this may not be the one they are talking about.
Still, it's interesting already, and we're not even at June 1st. 
I guess we'll find out tomorrow if they are going to send in a plane. My computer is giving me problems, I can't get into ECTWC it keeps shutting me down...and kicking me off. I think AOL wants me to upgrade, because the last time this happened I had to go from 5.0 to 6.0. O well. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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iF the subsidence from the high building down the east coast doesn't kill it (check the WV loop), and the high builds to its north, it could be in stalemate for a while and get pulled NNW. Colleen check the vis INVEST loop at (hard to get in right now). The red blobs are the convection getting torn off. The low pressure isn't moving east, but pretty much stationary until the high moves into the western Atlantic . Patience!  !LOL Cheers!!
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BabyCat
Unregistered
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If nothing else, south Florida got some needed rain this week. Still, it is something to watch and so early in the season.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Can someone please take a look and see if our system is trying to maybe relocate its circulation to be moreless underneath the main convection and let me know what you find out?
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Never mind. I answered my own question. It looks like some of the convection is fading off and that is what was giving me the impression that the circulation was trying to relocate.
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scottsvb
Unregistered
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The weak circulation is centerd near 18.2N and 80.4W movement is near stationary and a drift to the NW is expected
later tonight or tomorrow. The lowest pressure is near 1009mb. The center is away from the area of convection as
the upper level wind sheer is still strong with the trough to
its ENE. As the trough weakens overnight into friday and the
low meanders NW it should start to get more established.
A recon will be sent possibly to the area on Fri,, hard to see
if it will be well defined by then,,but overnight Friday into sat
morning it should be well defined as it turns more to the N. In 60hrs it should be near TS strength and SW of Keywest by
early morning on Sunday. scottsvb
http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER web page
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Colleen check the vis INVEST loop at (hard to get in right now).
Got a link to that one?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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HEY! I'm a weather watcher now! I guess I can discard these pullups and get on to the business at hand 
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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PLease post link
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Caneman...go to "Storm Links" on the left hand side of the screen, and when you go down to DoD/Military it's the 3rd choice from the top. It's title is "Naval Research Laboratory". When you click on to that link, it will show you the visibles and any other pictures you want to see under the "Invest".
Now, if this doesn't mean I'm a Weather Watcher, I don't know WHAT it means. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I wonder if our system is in trouble.It looks as though the convection is dwindling away.All the convection is east of the circulation and caught up in the trough that is steadily moving to the east.I'm not quite sure this thing is going to survive.I guess time will tell.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Oh yeah...one more thing, LOL...when you GET to the site, click on "Tropical Cyclone HomePage"...that is what brings up the site with the information.
You're right...it's very hard to see the low. And my eyes are double crossing anyway from the cold medicine. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Thanks
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Sup Frank !!.....got them Crawfish and cold beers ready ?
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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I agree it's early but never to early to prepare!!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Get The surf boards out !!!!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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