HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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have a commentary on , gonna toss it on one of the forums to appease the moderator gods. it can be greatly expanded upon if anybody is willing to make the effort.. check it out if the spirit moves you. should be there in a while.
today is the climatological date of named storm #1.. it was also my second try at tagging the first named storm. no dice there. i was really pumped about things going off last week, when arrived and started coughing up phantom storms.. still waiting for some verification. it is interesting that the late-organizing wave in the bay of campeche got the 'go' signature (96L did also earlier this week).. that's all eastpac fodder now. speaking of which they have one system looking very perky (mentioned by several) and another disturbance near costa rica that models are picking up on too.. blas and celia if both decide to form. it works better in the core of the atlantic season.. but there is rather frequently a five-nine day lag between eastpac and atlantic formation. don't see a very good reason for it to work this time, but you never know. models losing 95L, following a wave in the east altantic (gfs has been suggestive, but not with great conviction). translates to, don't expect anything next week, just keep a lazy eye out.
gonna stay with a first storm as a mid-latitude cutoff, but have to admit mann's mdr breakout system may be our 2004 season christener. i may get a candidate in a week or so, northeast atlantic.. as if anybody cares.
HF 0224z12july
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Thanks Ed for picking up on that, I noticed that too, in fact, there still seems to be a circulation center, just inland. I blew the forecast, but only because the system ran out of space.
Here's an odd thing: I noticed this am a very small swirl embedded in the edge of convection east of sc; that SAME swirl, looking just as it did earlier today, is now over Daytona Beach on the edge of an area of convection that is moving in my direction, and across Fl into the Gulf. You should see the lightning display just to our east...some severe ww in the ara too. It may be a stormy night.
Curious to see if the swirl survives into the Gulf---hard to imagine, just neat that it is still there and looks EXACTLY as it did 12 hours ago.
sc
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Here is another interesting link pertaining to the ....
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/mjo_iso.html
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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bobbi
Unregistered
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we all care..
and dont laugh at me but there's a wave off of africa and i like it, not like will develop but well best ive seen in a while
there is a wave
wow
have a good day guys
bobbi
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LI Phil
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Rob Mann posted this in the storm forum, but Ed said it's ok for the main board. Here is a great post explaining :
"At the moment, a negative pulse stretches from the EPAC through the African continent. Obviously it's not enough to bring our basin to life right now...the mid-latitudes have pretty much shut off as we move deeper in summer, so less chance of a frontal originating system in the GOM or W ATL like we often see in June. And in the tropical Atlantic, the strong subtropical ridge and SAL are still choking our tropical waves...not as badly as earlier, but still enough to keep anything from forming. Typical for this time of year regardless of . With all that being said, and no real system being shown by the models in the next week...it looks like this negative will come and go with no TC forming in the ATL.
But that brings me to another point. This means that we'll probably have a positive set in the region beginning sometime in the next 1-2 weeks...which then favors the next negative moving into the ATL around the Aug 15-20 period. If this timing is correct, it's PERFECT timing for a burst of strong activity in late Aug through early Sep. Going far far in the range here, but this burst could be followed by a calmer period in mid Sep...then another (somewhat smaller) burst of activity in the end of Sep and early Oct. This is all assuming the sticks on its extraploated schedule...as seen in the past, pulses can slow or speed up unexpectedly, which in that case would lead to completely different timing than I described above. BUT, if it does happen that way...as you may have already noticed, it's basically the same pattern seen in 1998.
It also means there's a small chance we may not get our first named storm until mid Aug, as Phil pointed out. Though a positive doesn't mean a named storm CAN'T form...just makes it harder. Based on analogs and climatologically alone though, I'd be a little surprised if we don't see Alex by the end of the month.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast "
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Here's the link to a story on CNN about the worst monsoonal flooding in "years" in South Asia. If you looked at a sat map of Africa today, you can see some of the downstream results. If it keeps productive overall (and in the means), this is another component to the 2004 season that would be viewed as a positive as far as net activity and available moisture.
Story on Monsoonal Flooding in South Asia
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Steve, you may want to try to correct that link...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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So, whats up in the NE Gulf?--that impulse I noted last night seems to have bloomed.....odd.
sc 
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG AND DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER OUR
OUTER WATERS MOVING S. SURFACE DATA SHOW A TROUGH EXTENDING W-SW
INTO THE GULF FROM NEAR THE SUWANNEE RIVER. CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH AROUND 10-11Z IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
VORT MAX MOVING SW INTO THE AREA.
it sure did seem to grow fast. don't know if it will amount to anything though
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Bobbi
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You just never know about these things. Sometimes something just POPS up from nowhere and demands your attention.
Similar going ons in SW Carib tho more curious about the NE Gulf. More friendly environment closer to home these days that far out at sea. Then again IF a wave could make it intact still wet enough.. maybe something powerfully exciting would happen around here. Maybe..
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CocoaBeach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Seems to have some circulation. Is it going to move into the GOM or crose into Mexico?
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LI Phil
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Cocoa,
Yeah...I was just looking at that. Right now there are three areas of interest, but probably very doubtful for development.
1. The explosion of showers that came off the Florida peninsula earlier today and is currently in the GOM. I don't even know if you could call it "tropical" but it sure is a rainmaker.
2. The area of convection that came north off of South America. Looking at sat loops, it sure looks like it will try to come north, possibly getting into the BOC tonight/tomorrow. This could be one to watch.
3. The VERY impressive wave that came off of Africa. Has held together reasonably well. Also appears to be at a more northerly lattitude than it's predecessors. Could be a player down the road.
Probably nothing develops, but at least we've got something to watch...and we will soon have Blas and possibly Celia in the EPac.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
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For lack of a better name--that feature I remarked about last night is STILL there, just off Cedar Key!!
Take a look (soon)....
seem to be some other swirls too.....
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
sc
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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LOL. For anyone who clicked on the prior link, it's worth the time to load. It's Kerry & Bush singing "This land is your land." The actual CNN story (sans the 3 purple hearts) is as follows:
Millions Flee South Asian Floods
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Bobbi
Unregistered
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First off... close to home... I would say that the system nearing the Yucatan will most likely move into the BOC and give us something to look at.. a possibility anyway. After the last fast moving system that had a very real signature this one should look tropical enough as well to ponder over. Pondering is good, we've been so long without anything to ponder its been silly. But.. its also par for the course. You do remember par don't you? Just hang in there a little longer and something will go bump in the tropical night.
I like the wave but think there is more immediate potential close in. I also keep wondering if some upper level low in Atlantic is going to take tropical soon.
Lastly regarding the Carib possibilities .. I think we have to keep an eye on upper level low hanging round eastern cuba to make or break it as well as upper level conditions.
Nextly 
Not to annoy anyone around here or to bring up a bad subject I just wanted to post a link for anyone who was wondering how the poor people of Nepal were doing. The trick seemed to work and its raining the proverbial cats and dogs over there too. Monsoons have started, late but started.
Maybe something like that will happen here soon.
Rain I mean.
Thank you for your patience. Bobbi
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/fromthefield/108964667354.htm
and just remember everything in weather has to do with patterns, monsoons started.. think our systems will begin to get their stuff together soon too.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i've got some vague, but useful related-stuff over on the forum ed posted the other night. it really poses more questions than answers.
the basin today has a tamer, less interesting look. nice convection is blowing near the brink of central america, useless stuff for development this time of year (low level easterlies send it off). the old 95L wave is looking junky now. new one near 25w is embedded (though otherwise not too bad).. days to be something, probably not at all.
that powerful negative is around two weeks gone, growing warm SST patch in the central pacific appears to have stopped surging. based on the plots, i'd say will be tapering down and keeping us in neutral this fall. that means, if i had a season forecast that i was considering changing, i wouldn't change it (don't anyway).
aside from the stuff i mentioned above over in the other forum, i think i've found some more info on the 1953 pattern.. going to see if there's anything to it.
blah, i'm just rambling. another quiet week (blas notwithstanding).
HF 0046z13july
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LI Phil
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HF,
We're all probably sick of hearing this, but GREAT POST, as always.
I guess we were all kinda hoping 95L might materialize in some form, guess now that's not happenin'. Tried to hang on, might actually affect the cold front dropping down from Canada/East Coast later this week, but not developing in and of itself. A noble soldier.
Quick question, you don't think anything will come of the blob just emerging off of SA, possibly to make it to the BOC? Seems like it has/had? a chance earlier this evening.
BTW, read your little piece on . Thanks to guys like you and Rob Mann who can take some of the science out of this stuff and put it all into "English" so guys who are trying to learn can understand it better. I think we'd all agree that is still one of the lesser understood predictors but one which can definitely have an effect on seasonal development.
Have a great evening,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Bobbi
Unregistered
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It's still there but it's too low. The fact that its there is good..the fact that its alive is because its too low because to the north is of course dust. Just because the is in operation doesn't mean we have storms.. we need moisture.
So..where is the moisture?
In the Carib is still a rich moisture supply but then theres theres action in the pacific.
Still something to watch.
Not convinced we won't have some system develop close in of east coast from some sort of nontropical origination. Someone here suggested that...can't remember who (sorry about that) but think they were right.
Have a great day guys, take care Bobbi
ps..Phil and ED..you still talking to me
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The area in the western Caribbean (near the Bay of Campeche) looks like it may have the beginning of a little spin to it. I say that with a grain of salt because it may just be the last few frames that I see this, but it will be interesting to see what it does in the next 12-24 hours.
Colleen :-)
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Sorry to nit pick guys and gals, but the Bay of Campeche is in the gulf of mexico not the carribean just noticed it been refered to as being in the carribean a few times.If its in the carribean its said to be near belize,hondurace, costa rica ect....
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