Anonymous
Unregistered
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Yes, it has the 'look'.....
Noticed convection south of Cuba too, ULL it is, we will see if it can translate down..it will probably lift out.
Lightning storm like I have never seen here last night....
sc 
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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Hey Collen, How'd you find your password? Or did you re-register. For some reason it didn't recognize steve h. this year 
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LI Phil
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Been looking at IR loops of the disturbance south of Cuba, and it's not all that impressive. Doesn't appear to have much circulation right now, and the cloud tops aren't particularly cold. The wave just off Nicaragua, which unfortunately is going inland, has a much better signature. The wave south of Hispaniola is just moseying along on it's merry way...nothing doing there.
I still think our best chances are to the east, with the wave near 50W/10N looking much healthier and the much aforementioned wave that came off Africa yesterday near 30W/10N. That's one's got Alex written all over it.
Cheers,
LI Phil
Steve H. I'll PM Mike for you on the password deal. He should be able to fix you up...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Jul 16 2004 04:32 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Look quick, the link will change:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
sc
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Well no dice for the east atlantic wave as the SAL once again is doing it's thing of not letting things moist up sufficient to get the waves going.Another SAL area moving off africa is lowering humidity values to 20% and also the convection has raced well ahead of the wave axis which is at 23w per 2:05 PM discussion.So guys I think we will have to wait until early to mid august for Alex to form unless something appears suddenly on the pipe.Sorry Phil as you had faith this wave was Alex all written. 
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Fri Jul 16 2004 06:12 PM)
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Strong strong line going thru looks and sounds like Twister movie, lions and tigers and bears..
As for wave out by Africa.. wait a bit before declaring it dead and wait a bit before singing it's praises.
SAL is a major player right now..maybe more than .
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html
the ULL is over the Yucatan; there is a very weak surface low south of Cuba, because the IR shows the clouds south of western Cuba moving north, and the visible shows low clouds south of western tip of Cuba moving southeast (look very closely, and speed up the visible loop)
the Atlantic system is somewhat far south, but because of this, it may escape any signifigant shear, and does appear to be getting better organized
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Luis,
I'm not so sure this one is DOA. Models still track it thru the Islands in a couple of days. It's fighting the good fight, and this may be the one to finally 'splode. Maybe not Alex, but I'm not giving up yet. SAL is causing all kinds of problems, for sure, and the 2:05 TWD certainly didn't give any encouragement.
That would really 5u<k if this one gets killed off, cause mid-August is a long time to wait.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I agree with you Phil, I don't think that we should be so fast to write this one off. Let's see if it can make it to the western Atlantic and Caribbean in some form or another. It's gonna have to move a bit further north if it's going to avoid crashing into South America, though.
BTW, I know that a negative factor enhances the chances of development, but would an unfavourable prevent any storms forming whatsoever? Is there an albeit smaller chance of something forming before mid-August?
Edited by James88 (Fri Jul 16 2004 08:06 PM)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Steve H.
John C. posted this a while back, took me a while, but I found it:
If your having password problems Just email Mike or Myself with your current real email and we will change the email in your user profile and email you your new password.
john@flhurricane.com
mike@flhurricane.com
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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bobbi
Unregistered
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wave is staying together because it is so far south and further from the SAL
wave is moving too fast 
i want to change the password to one of my own making that makes sense that i can remember anywhere ...that was the question but thank you phil anyway... i keep getting new odd combos of letters..there must be a way i can just put in my password and change to a new one
in all years storms form no matter the conditions, just more positive conditions enhance the chance of forming
ok was more than 3.. sorry
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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It does allow you to change to one you like after the intial one, I chnaged mine....
sc
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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Not impressed with it right now...development appears very unlikely in both in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.
IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 16 July 2004 - 4:30 PM EDT
The one system that is worthy of even a mention is the tropical wave near 25ºW, which is producing scattered convection to the east of its axis. Although shear is currently low in the area, dry air due to the seasonably strong subtropical ridge remains present. Additionally, the Saharan Air Layer is moderate in the Mean Development Region. These two factors are keeping convection associated with this wave minimal, and therefore greatly reducing its chance to form into a tropical cyclone. The , which was showing some slight development yesterday, has backed off quite a bit. It was never in agreement with the other global models, so therefore as it stands now, no model does anything with this wave for the next 6 days. Once it reaches the Caribbean Sea, it will simultaneously reach a stronger shearing environment in part due to the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. No development is expected from this wave during its trek through the Mean Development Region and Caribbean Sea.
Elsewhere, the tropics are quiet.
On another note...I want to point out that in the past 55 years, there have only been 4 named storms to form in the Caribbean Sea during the month of July. These include Becky and Celia in 1970, Cesar in 1996, and Claudette in 2003. The first 2 formed in the W Caribbean...whereas the latter 2 were in the E. If you want to get technical about it, you could cross out Becky and Celia because they didn't become TSs until they were in the GOM...which would mean NO W Caribbean formations in July. But regardless of which to count and which to not, the point is it's a very uncommon occurrance...contrary to what is commonly thought to be a hotspot at this time of the year. Even funnier is those storms were all during an E QBO (not the case this year).
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hope can be a cruel thing. Looks like we may be in for a longer wait than many of us predicted at the beginning of the season. Still, Alex will form sometime and the sooner the better. There is currently something brewing over Africa which may give us something to watch in a few days.
While this slow start is not really unusual, and it has no correlation with the peak of season, it sure is dull. Since the upturn in tropical activity began in 1995, the only other year without a tropical system of any description by July 16th was 1998.
Edited by James88 (Fri Jul 16 2004 09:17 PM)
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LI Phil
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Rob,
If what you are saying is correct, and I have no reason to believe otherwise as you & Jason have nailed this season so far, would you think what looks like the final african wave for a while will be the last best hope for any development before mid-August? Or is even that a remote (at best) possibility?
Always enjoy your explanations as you put them in terms we all understand and you back up everything you say with sound meterological data.
Also, several posts ago, I believe it was Robert, questioned 's handling of two storms...others have also posted about it. His point was that failed to classify the Hispaniola disaster a TS, and he felt the Bermuda system a month ago should have been classified. His point was about analogs...were these indeed named storms (or at least TDs), we need to look at different years for our analogs. I was just wondering if you might have seen that post and if you had any thoughts on it. Thanks,
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I have found something fascinating and was wondering if anyone had any insight into this. Is their scientific correlation between a 'burning' Florida start to summer (all the dry season related fires) and the shape of the oncoming hurricane season?
I just wonder.... 
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Phil what did I posted before Rob posted his great outlook? Wave bites the dust and that is what is happening with it.It looked promising when it emerged Africa and some here including you Phil said that this is the one that may be Alex but I am afraid we will have to wait until early to mid august to see our first tropical depression however as we know some may argue that that low in late may that affected Haiti and the DR was a TD at that time.But the tropics sometimes offers surprises so have your hopes up because at any given moment something may brew somewhere.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Fri Jul 16 2004 11:06 PM)
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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Thanks for the registry info. Not sure I agree with the SAL factor here. Plenty of moisture in the east atlantic now so I wouldn't say the wave is dead I still like the wave at 50W as well. Unbelieveably strong troughing digging into the SE US right now suppressing the ridge axis way south into the FL Straits. Haven't seen one that strong plow that far south in mid July! Crazy pattern.
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LI Phil
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Well, my little engine that could is looking rather ragged ATTM. You can clearly see the convection firing off far in front of the wave. I'm not going to raise the white flag though, until this puppy reaches the Islands and encounters even more unfavorable conditions. Should it hold together until then, it may have a slim chance at further development. As Bobbi pointed out, it's pretty far south, so it's not encountering as much dust and dry air as if would if it were a few degrees further north.
It's so f---in' slow I guess we're all grasping at straws, hoping that each piece of convection will magically become Alex. We should know better. As a few have said, Alex will form when Alex will form, I'd just prefer that it's not August 14th. Starting to get more than a little frustrating.
Steve H., I think that your wave at about 48W is probably a goner, although as Spike would remind us, weather is unpredictable, so you never know...it needs to be watched.
Just a quick note about the "rogue" storm Joe B. has been pimping...the local mets up here are actually starting to pick up on it (maybe they learned how to read the models). JB thinks is going to explode, just off the coast, possibly as a lower than 1000 mb storm, while just about every model and met has predicted a storm further east. JB feels we'll have 40 mph+ gusts. I'm not so sure he'll get this one on the button, but at this point, everything is so dead, I'll root for the worst, even if it ruins the backend of the weekend. I am, however, pretty much guaranteed of a wet Sunday/Monday with the possibility of 1-3" (conservatively) or 6+" (as Joe feels a few areas will see).
Fortunately, unlike some areas in Jersey and Penna, we haven't had any flooding or saturated grounds/streams overflowing, etc., so that much rain won't be a problem. However, if it dumps that much on areas that flooded earlier this week, they could be in trouble.
Enough babbling for now. Keeping a lazy eye on the tropics, wishing it were mid-August out there...
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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