Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
|
|
Steve, did he explain the "B" north solution? Is he still going with 3 possibilities today? YOu mentioned that the "B" north solution opens up the SE States; But does it really mean "B" - line north and out to sea?
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
hmm, lets see. rob m took care of the scenarios for 97L, so i'll just tack on that i favor the weaker-westerly solution, even though the overall movement of the system so far has been noticeably north of west. w/wnw movement for the next 2 days.. slowing. it isn't anywhere near as far along as i'd thought (movement not the speedy 25mph of yesterday), and convection is holding on. don't expect anything to kill it outright, so it should keep poking along.. maybe doing nothing and maybe finding an opportunity to develop. 1000-800 mb easterlies probably causing a good bit of low-level shear and preventing anything well defined at the surface for the time being.
more interesting look in the far east atlantic (evidence of cross-equatorial flow convergence picking up). may just be a momentary thing, but sure to help any waves organize if it persists.
NAO is good and positive right now, so the trough near the east coast will snag and split. i'm not so sure about any reinforcing shots keeping it in place, globals keep pointing to the mid-layer ridge holding pretty much in place off the east coast. the shortwave zipping by the northeast fri/sat shouldn't do more than yank out anything that is brewing off the east coast.. as always whatever is hanging underneath near the bahamas/off hatteras will be of interest. globals suggest there may be a low trying to form, and a good deal of surface convergence/upper support will remain in place even after the next shortwave passes by.
chances of development are still mild at this point. it's just watch and wait on the carib system.
HF 2206z20july
|
bobbi
Unregistered
|
|
If..there is the most basic rudementary rotation up in that region breaking off from the lower part of the wave http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
how does mr. bastardi explain how in that area just south of the shear from the big ULL could form into something but in reality would be more hostile conditions than those in the E Carib where the general part of the wave is now
Just seems to me that the area n-nw of the wave is currently
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Bobbi...did you lose half your post?
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
|
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
You will have to click the zoom button 3 times.
Just off the Coast and South of Tampa.
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
Agree with you HF it is a watch and wait situation with this wave.By the way here in Puerto Rico and also in the Virgin Islands we got pretty high gusts from a squall line that passed thru this afternoon.Gusts that ranged from 25-35 kts were felt in St Croix and in San Juan a gust of 34 mph was felted at the station at the international airport.My anemometer recorded data from 30-36 mph in gusts here at my house.That was the northern part of the wave that passed thru Puerto Rico and it was the first squall line from it.Tonight we can expect more but not as strong as the first line.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Tue Jul 20 2004 11:14 PM)
|
JasonM603
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 24
|
|
Quote:
Enjoyed the post Supercane/Rob Mann, it's a lot of common sense stuff, but you hit it all. There is a 3rd possibility. Bastardi mentioned in yesterday's Long Ranger [tm] that the classic "B-North" pattern is setting up. Often that opens up the SE Coast. However, because of a very cold surface high pressure scheduled to be in the Great Lakes, you can't discount anything to its south. He thinks there's an equal possibility that the wave can split with energy ending up off the Carolina Coast and also something in the Gulf with a front expected in the Gulf (again!) by the weekend. Wave energy (if not wave-origin stuff) could then ignite whatever is in those respective areas.
Steve
Rob and I have been discussing the possibility of the wave interacting with the front down the road. It would certainly make things more interesting in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, if the wave took that path. This is beyond the 120H period so there is still a lot of uncertainty. As you said, some energy along the northern edge of the wave axis could get drawn northward. But most of the wave's energy should continue on a westward heading.
--------------------
Independent Wx
Seasonal Forecast
|
bobbi
Unregistered
|
|
a twist, you can see a twist
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
nah... a girl of a few words right now phil
wanted to know how bastardi explains anything south of that shear zone from the ULL would develop
thats all folks
|
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
|
|
Nothing there live on St. pete beach sky is now clearing after 3 days of storms and 9 inches of rain. 97L doesn't look very good tonight, thunder storms are bein gpulled up n orth east of the mid level center and trade winds are keeping it from getting forming, if it holds together and a big if, may have a TD after 75W as the trade winds die down.
|
JasonM603
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 24
|
|
I might add that the remaining global models that have been holding out now indictae that most of the energy associated with the wave will traverse the central and western Caribbean, possibly even the Gulf.
--------------------
Independent Wx
Seasonal Forecast
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Hopefully this post won't get me banned from accuwx, but here's JBs rationale:
"The strong wave near 15 north and 65 west is heading in a body and soul type idea northwestward and will have to do battle with Hispaniola. That means that until it gets by there, there is little chance for development. The question is what becomes of it. An interesting side possibility is that energy shooting out to its west now continues westward for the Gulf and is something that can throw a spark on whatever is going on with the front in the western Gulf this weekend. That is something that will have to be watched. The other is that the other part that emerges from the battle with Hispaniola heads north-northwestward into the waiting mish mosh of events near the coastal Carolinas this weekend"
Haven't really checked any radars/sats tonight, but earlier, the idea that was thrown out that this wave will "split" with the northern section perhaps interacting with Hispaniola and the Bahamas and the southern section entraining into the GOM seems to have some merit. Will need to watch tomorrow, starting to get real ragged tonight.
Cheers,
LI Phil
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
Thank you Phil. Sounds like Joe is beginning to accept the more likely scenario that it travels west and maybe that from interaction on the south side with south america it is dying out and might not be much left..well maybe
that ULL moved down deep on it today (started yesterday) and its real visible on the WATER VAPOR and slammed it to pieces.. if those pieces can rise from the dead zone of shear.. more power to them
anyways.. still worth watching, besides its become a habit
hope they dont ban u
body and soul.. nice line
bobbi
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
(duplicate post removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 21 2004 09:37 AM)
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
ABNT20 KNHC 210907
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAVE INCREASED JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. EVEN IF DEVELOPMENT
DOES NOT OCCUR...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
This advisory seems to give the system a little more potential for development. The previous one said that development is not likely for another couple of days. That convective flare up is quite impressive - it just needs to stay far enough away from the mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic.
|
h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
|
|
Looks a little better this morning, but we have said that before haven't we! Anyway, on the loop, it looks like the circulation may be a little better, but we really won't be able to tell until the sun is up and we see the visibles.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-bd-loop.html
--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
Late yesterday before he found his groove again if you covered the bottom half of the wave and only looked at the top half of the wave. Really stared at it w/o the associated lower fast moving convection ...you could see there was a twist/center/something going on but it looked like it was totally running out of steam and around 8 you could barely see anything left.
System like most waves has had a few centers. In various levels of the atmosphere though never at the surface. Had a real good mid-level center a while back. If you covered the top of the wave (this is by the way a very good trick and works well when disecting waves and canes) you could see another twist that suffered greatly from friction with South America.
Wave regenerated around the point I was watching yesterday and it looked pretty dead.
Who knows. Almost had it going on a few days back..looked real good and yet was right with that 5 and now think they are reticent to write it off yet as momentary development.
Like I know or any of us do but only my question would be ... is it still heading west?
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
Whatever the case I think 97L is currently at its most impressive yet! As long as it maintains convection, it should have a chance. I have to admit though, a flare up this big was rather surprising. Let's just see if a LLC will form today.
|
javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
|
|
Yea looks like some circulation at about 13N and 68W south of the main convection.The area to the N just cannot tell if there is a circulation with it.What does look might happen is that activity to the N might catch the area off of South America.Then maybe the circulation might pull it in.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
