LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
looks like there is a blow up in the center of the wave
Have to reread the various comments. Read them tonight .. just now.
Great discussion.
Not sure what Bastardi meant about splitting and which part gets into the Bahamas. I think my mind is at saturation point for details and need to go to bed...but its so early. Was waiting for the 11 though it has weakened enough for the 11 to be meeker than the 5.
A good wave.. maybe the slowing down hurt it. It has been crusing along so fast that slowing down might inhibit it as opposed to invigorate it like it would if it were a formed storm.
Will see in the morning. Do believe its in a rebuilding stage and no i'm not wishcasting.
Good discussion today, enjoyed it.
Think July still may have a named system.. pretty sure it will.
Bobbi
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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going to let you all duke it out tonight over the 11pm and check back in the morning and see how it all played out.
nite bobbi
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LI Phil
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First off, peace y'all. Sorry about the 'attack' on our soon to be of legal drinking age Bugs/Rabbit.
Part of my frustration has to be attributed to my piece of s--- home computer, which feels as though crashing every five minutes (not kidding) is good for character building. Not so. (In fact, I'm just waiting for it to eat this post before I can post...)
Tomorrow will dawn another day and yes, Virginia, there will still be 97L to track. Whether it amounts to anything more, only time will tell. If it doesn't, then it doesn't. There's more to life than wishing, hoping for the first TD of the season.
Haven't gone on line (an of course, when your computer crashes every five minutes, that's difficult) all evening...thanks Scottsvb & Ed for posting...
Patience is a virture I've never embraced...will need to employ it as the season continues.
Still...DON'T WRITE MY WAVE OFF. It might make it. Albeit a small window closing ever so quickly, but it does have a still slim chance.
The fact that both Florida teams beat both NY baseball teams should have tipped me off that this was just not my night not withstanding, everyone enjoy the evening and "'till the morning comes' lets enjoy the e'en.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Old Sailor
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Loc: Florida
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Phil, There is a upper level low north of PR at the Jet steam level , 97L may be pulled NW and or the wind shear caused by this upper level flow will keep 97L in check.
Dave
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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HF do not know how to take this and someone correct me if wrong.I think one of the factors in 69 was an unusual cool front dropping into the GOM in 69.Just a memory from my college days on reading of Camiille.Might be wrong just something that stuck.Just how we always say that history repeats itself funny.Not that it will just how fragments of the puzzle come to play.
Edited by javlin (Tue Jul 20 2004 12:44 AM)
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The convection on the north side of the wave looks like it's weakening. However, convection is beginning to flare up to the south, so maybe it will begin to reorganise as it passes through the Caribbean.
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Cycloneye
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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The caribbean graveyard as it is known in the area of the eastern caribbean sea is where the wave axis is this morning and I see no chance that it will be a TD south of Puerto Rico as the upper trough will keep it in check.However in the western caribbean we will see if it gets better conditions or not but for now only scattered showers and only a few gusts I can expect in PR from it.So Phil dont give up on your wave it yet.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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It seems as though every time this wave looks like it is falling apart, it suddenly flares up to keep us in suspense. This one deserves to become Alex for sheer effort! It definately looks as though July may get a tropical system.
Anyone noticed the 2 systems over Africa? Not saying they'll develop, 'cos they'll probably fizzle out when they reach water. Still, they look impressive.
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LoisCane
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Loc: South Florida
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Lots of Thoughts here.. want to mention them all in one post w/o doing multiple posts.
And..think the wave looks better this morning than last night, maybe its a daytime wave..not a night cruiser..
First.... Phil:
That was the best post you have written in ages. Really in so many ways. Open, honest fresh and good thoughts... Would love to have seen the original unedited that started all of this but I was handling my own stuff last night. Came back and read the posts. Great posts. Anyway... thanks Phil and agree with you though not a Florida Marlins fan..just a Fins.
But, I am a weather fan and think this system is going to somehow do it and think your advice on the wave is good advice to Rabbit... and to Old Sailor..
May I say to Old Sailor.. its really not about being Old or Young but how you play the game.
Its my hobby...not my career. If I'm not going to do it with passion then I may as well be doing something else.
And, how can you not get passionate about this wave... it doesn't promise more than it can deliver and right now I think its just promised us a good show..a good ride and maybe a TD or named Storm, later somewhere in the basin.
Need to go back again and look at Rabbit's old post on predictions.. I was sort of distracted by the july, august, september, october and november part.. made me do math and Im an english major.. but think your end tally may be right, which is why I hate to see you give up now.
Javlin's reference to Camille and this wave are interesting..this analogy year stuff... Well if you look at 69 you see there was a constant n/s pull on waves... and they didn't start far out.. No two years are the same but dont you wish we could see sats of the wave that became Camille in the way we watched Andrew putt putt itself across the ocean, barely keeping his head above the water.. yet hung with him.. even when they wanted to pull the plug
know when to hold them, know when to fold them
NHC did a good job yesterday at 5..have to give them lots of credit..
I agree with James...its hanging in there... its tenacious. Got rid of that strong competitive band like feature..sacrificed it to the dust queen and kept going.. a good move because the northern part of the system was being strongly affected by the ULL more than anyone around here talked about but was evident on the WATER VAPOR and with that sacrificed and gone..the wave started firing up dead center (southern center) again and looks good in what is usually the driest part of the Caribbean. Yes..good reference to last year's storm.. have thought about that a lot.
Have thought about a lot here and haven't posted it.. a little post shy these days and very distracted and spend most of yesterday staring at the wave on the computer like a good screen saver. Even some of the more interesting, strange library patrons came over to comment..good comments.
I mean around 4pm it looked like a STorm... but knew better and thats why they make the small government bucks but have the big titles. And, they did a good job.
So...Rabbit..dont give up on your numbers and Phil..hang in there..not giving up on YOUR wave yet either.
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Great post, Bobbi. What more can you say? This one is definately providing a good show. We're getting closer to TD #1 methinks. You know that it has good potential for development when a recon is sent out there, so maybe that is also something to watch for.
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LoisCane
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Loc: South Florida
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I was writing and missed that..
came on to post this...shows the battle its having better than other links..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Interesting weather down in the Islands.
Dominica: Wind Calm, Pressure 30.06
Roosevelt Roads Naval Station, Ofstie Field, PR: Wind ENE @13mph, Pressure 29.94
St. Croix: Wind E@20mph, Pressure 30.04
Aruba: Wind E@18mph, Pressure 29.91
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joepub1
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Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Our little wave has shown some signs of hanging around for a while longer. Looks much better than 12 hours ago, buts it's just in a rough area right now. It's only hope is to stay south for a while, the bigger islands will destroy it if it has to cross them. It's true calling is somewhere around the Yucatan if I had to guess, but I don't want to put a curse on the kid.
We all know it's been a slow start, so it's about time to get this thing rolling. I'm not sure I'd adjust my numbers just yet (mine are 13-8-4), but I figure if we don't have 2 named storms by Aug. 15, my numbers are toast. I wasn't counting on many november and december storms!!! 
Joe in Jax
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I really meant that IF they send down a recon it would have a better chance for development. I don't know if they've sent one down or not. Sorry for any confusion.
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LI Phil
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There's no recon scheduled for today or tomorrow, and #s still "too weak". Unless and until they get to 1.0/1.0, there's no need for recon.
97L's still not as well organized, and is currently just a strong area of low pressure still RACING thru the East Carib (aka, the graveyard). Also upper level winds are not conducive for development. However, it has held together through the night and will have another go at it today.
No JB post yet, he's on the road.
Let's see where MY wave is by later in the afternoon before we pronounce it dead or alive.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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(off-topic post deleted by Moderator)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 20 2004 06:49 PM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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I don't think we'll have any satellite images to look at for a few hours
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Some model have this system travelling up the East Coast in the near future. Perhaps unlikely, but an interesting scenario.
Also, the Ships model brings the system up to CAT 2 status by the C Caribbean. Somehow I doubt that 
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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Here is an excellent Sattelite web page it has 30 image animations and zoom animations all current and up to date http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
You will Need Java to play the animations if you have animations on any other website then you should be good to go,but if you cannot get the animations go here.
www.java.com
Download the latest free java. If you have an antivirus it will suspect something funny with it, dont let it scan while installing its just an eror and there is no virus i scanned my comp after instalation and all is good.
Edited by Robert (Tue Jul 20 2004 11:05 AM)
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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That ULL is playing havoc with the system now to much shear.I would venture to guess that if what ciculation is there can hold out to the 70>75W it might have a chance.That will be tomorrow.Almost looked like the center relocated maybe?
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