wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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They aren't headed back...I now have 9 plane reports and they are travelling a normal invest pattern. Not finding much of interest yet, however....
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Actually there was one 55kt reading...
sc 
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Visible sat. shows good deal of westerly shear intruding, and ahead of the storm...that's why all the comvection was Left Behind...oddly the blow off over Jamaica is from the east, but is still pretty strong...looks like lots of strong wiinds aloft effecting this thing...that has to lessen or it will not go.
Not as promising as earlier today. EDS.
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doug
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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55kt on the QS, not from recon.
sc
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bobbi
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/...tl-wv-loop.html
Do not tell me that you can see more on the visible because in this case you can see more on the wv..especially where you can zoom in..
First off..
The storm has two centers.. looks like I came back from lunch and had a bad case of double vision.
The ULL to its NE is pulling clouds away from the wave mass. The small shear off of SW Carib/Columbia is pushing clouds away on the bottom to the E..even ESE. What I believe is the influence of an ULL in the straits is tugging it more NW pulling part of it off to the NW towards the Gulf.
On one hand that is helping it twist or giving it the illusion of an overall better appearance than it deserves..without one defined center.
I think.. believe the ULL in the straits near Florida has pulled at it ..wants to steer it faster to the NW than it can go. The one center is racing a bit off to the West and has become exposed. Visible easily on the WV loop more than the others where white obscures the true picture.
Oddly the east side of the cloud ball (can we call it cloud ball or wave ball?) has maintained circulation yet is not circulating around within the system. Something I thought..or still think might be about to happen. The area racing west cannot maintain convection..without convection it will only be a mid-level swirl and not worthy of note.
The part hanging back and convecting looks as if it wants to loop around and form some sort of LCC however... its has to move too far west to wrap around where it was..
Either it will collapse again from this push me, pull me process or ... it will find its center?
Beats me..
Oh my gosh..look at that purple ball over interior S. Florida.. boy did it get dark in here fast, its pouring outside.. grumbling and pouring..
Think its impt to watch the ULL forming at the tip of S. Florida.
It's a new player and because of that deserves attention.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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One thing to remember however when you look a vapor image or loop, is that by defination you can't see the low levels...vapor is centered at about 600-500 millibars...so the low-levels are obscured. You can see some midlevel swirls, but you aren't seeing anything that reflects the surface activity on vapor.
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Jason Kelley
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA SEEMS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS RAPIDLY TRACKING WESTWARD. ALL MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN NOT SUGGESTING MUCH DEVELOPMENT...BUT INSTEAD STRETCHING/ELONGATING IT NORTHWARD TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Jason,
According to a thread on another site, Obs 6 had it at 20.1, 84.8, 7 had it at 22.5, 86.7, 8 had it at 24.5, 87.4 and now 11 has it at (Damnit if I can ever figure out those Supplimentals). Is it that they're flying the "X" pattern?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Thanks Steve for your quick answer, I for some reason wasnt aware the Recon was goin in today. Looking at the latest sat. it is loosing its convection again, like most tropical waves do this time of day. Wouldnt be surprised to see it get going again late tonight and early tomorrow like its been doing for days. I think in the next 48 hours we'll have Alex or at least TD 1. Unless the wave never gets a chance to develop it'll just run into the Yucatan. Oh well, I'll be watching, Im lookin forward to everyones input on this one. Have a great day ya'll.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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TWC said recon plane was headed back because of mechanical trouble about 20 minutes ago
also, the surface low is well west of all the convection and there are more outflow boundaries to the north, indicating that this system will never develop and will indeed dissipate within 24 hours
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
Edited by Rabbit (Wed Jul 21 2004 05:01 PM)
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Trust me.. there are few people who know the water vapor as well as I do. You can't see the top of the ocean.. or far down as you said surface activity but when you have spent a lot of time with it..like I have there are subtleties that you can read which cannot be seen on the other two mediums.
You can also tell when something is as I call "anchored" into the general atmospheric environment.
It's not perfect but in a case like today if you know what you are looking at...you can see more whats going on with the storm and around the storm and even into the storm than the visible lets you see. And..the IR can sometimes be misleading or.. old news.
I know what you mean.. trust me, but takes a lot of experience and a lot of hours to really appreciate the worth of the water vapor. And, may I say things show up quite fast..faster than people realize. It's not just a forecasting tool for the future.. shows you many things.
Sometimes..it is like an xray if you will of the backbone of the system as... they are all a matter of moisture being transfered when you come down to it.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 21 2004 11:04 PM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Bingo...they are (or were) flying the "X".
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The plane made it to near the western tip of Cuba and had to return for mechanical problems.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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if wishing were to make things so.. it would have evaporated and been gone by daybreak
really annoyed me last night, was like the final touch on a hard day
would have bet money last night we wouldn't be talking about it today
visible shows the old circulation well... the new circulation might be trying to catch the convection.. not saying it will, just saying it might..
really.. i do watch more than the water vapor 
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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TWO released a little early, and they did have issues
"Thunderstorm activity with the tropical wave south of Haiti has
changed little in organization this afternoon...and there is no
evidence of a closed surface circulation. Upper-level winds have
become somewhat more favorable...and there is the potential for
slow development during the next day or so. Even if this system
does not develop into a tropical cyclone...locally heavy rains will
affect portions of Hispaniola tonight and likely reach Jamaica on
Thursday as the wave moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides in mountainous areas.
The reconnaissance aricraft scheduled for this afternoon was
cancelled due to mechanical problems. Another aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system Thursday morning...if
necessary.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday."
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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You are absolutely right...they never made it to the invest area before turning around. My bad....I'm out of practice of plotting in my head!
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Jason Kelley
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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this wave is doing today the same thing it did the last two:
1) weak early morning
2) flare up mid-morning
3) mesoscale thunderstorm circulation in afternoon, everyone wrongly assumes it will be a TD at 5pm
4) daytime heat lessens, storms collapse, outflow boundaries race away in late afternoon, wave again falls apart
step 4 is now happening
although the shear has lessened, it does not seem to have lessened enough. this wave is only producing convection because of daytime heating and the upper low to the northeast
with winds racing away like that, this system never really did and never will have more than a 15% chance of developing
i am going to stick with that, and any other system that does what i have just described above, because it is more characteristic of a mesoscale thunderstorm blowup than a tropical depression. We will not see a storm this month, and I fully expect TD1 not to occur until August 12 or later.
for a comparison, this system looks like Lili did in 2002 before dissipating (winds ahead of the disturbance are not favorable like they were in 2002 though)
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caneman
Unregistered
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I disagree. There was a nice flare up last night which is typical for Tropical entities. I expect another tonight. These systems take time to come together.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Jason,
If you're still on line, and obviously a pro, what do you foresee for 97L? TD tomorrow as some are predicting or a complete fizzle ala Bugs? Alex at some point?
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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On the WV. Yeah, you get the moisture channel from it, but it's not that useful to me as far as a specific system. It shows some of the upper players, moistness of the air, windflow et al, but I'm not sure it's showing a ULL over South Florida. The spinning down there is definitely anti-cyclonic. I think it represents teh ass-end of the surface trof and the return flow coming back with the liftout.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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