Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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I DO wish the would switch the floaters and put Celia on the right instead of the left, because I keep clicking the wrong one
btw, if this were really developing, a special disturbance statement would've been issued today
it peaked before entering the Caribbean and has continued to weaken (I hope I am wrong, I hate being right about this stuff)
too bad the upper high over the Florida Keys isn't moving SE
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>with winds racing away like that, this system never really did and never will have more than a 15% chance of developing
1) What are you willing to put down on that one?
>>3)...everyone wrongly assumes it will be a TD at 5pm
Wrong. I never said it would be. I expect it to be a little stronger tomorrow and then a bit stronger still on Friday. It's going to pulse.
Also, the shear isn't nearly as bad as you have painted it. The Stream Flow has very minor potential to inhibit the system. It's not about the shear this time. It's about the forward speed and other pertinent surrounding environmental issues. We've got easily another day until 97L is in a favorable position.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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caneman
Unregistered
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yep, and one of the main resons is that they usually wait til the Wester Caribb to devolop. Wish people would quit being up one minute and then down the next. For Pete's sake they take time to come together
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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my birthday is Friday, and there has not been a named storm in the Atlantic on July 23 since 1985
it would be a nice birthday surprise to see this as a storm on Friday, but I honestly do not forsee that happening
side note: I wish I had found this site and registered before last year (like in 1999) so I would have physical evidence of my former forecasts
(a few have questioned if I really forecasted that accurately; no one on this forum that I know of, but people I knew here)
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Last thought here at work is this...
The system really hasn't moved that much today. Not talking about circulation center or area once thought to be a circulation center.. the weather mass has not moved much. For those of you unsure of what I'm talking about.. IRENE.
There is a weather mass associated with this tropical wave and it hasn't moved much. IF anything the energy shifting east into the mass not west with forward movement. Surprised me that the wanted to look so far towards Jamaica.
Either way..as steve said.. it WILL Pulse..for sure.. on that we agree.
chow bobbi
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Post deleted by John C
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Black Cloud
Registered User
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The Old Sailor called it right back at 2:52PM.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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Post deleted by Rabbit
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Rabbit,
Ed gave my butt a whompin' back on Monday when I attempted to dispute some of your assertions, so I won't do it now. I will give you fair warning, another post like the one above and I'm pretty certain it will be your LAST one. I'll leave it up for now, but when Ed comes aboard later tonight, it'll be gone (along with this post as well).
Anon was absolutely wrong to post what he did, but do NOT respond in such a manner.
This thread was going great with some good dialog and differing opinions...that's what it's here for. Personally, I'm enjoying you and Steve go at it with your divergent opinions. Makes for good reading, and there's some valid points made by the two of you.
Keep it on the up and up!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Hmmm...
I don't have a definative opinion...on one hand 97L just can't get going with any real duration, which is a strike against it.
But...
It is persistant, and there is a LOT to be said for persistance...it has developed convection despite some pretty hostile conditions.
I'll give it a 70% chance of it making TD, 50% TS, and 10% Hurricane.
YMMV...
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Jason Kelley
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Quote:
The Old Sailor called it right back at 2:52PM.
The Old Swede/Old Sailor ain't half bad. But you got this from >moi< at 1:48:
>>I don't think they'll classify it today, but it's getting close. Put me in the blue state column that this (if not the trailing wave with the low pressure behind it) will probably be Alex by the time it's all said and done.
Old Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Southeast Texas
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At least we have something to look forward to tomorrow - another day of watching this way and discussing what it will or won't do?
Just glad that they the Hurricanehunter plane got back safety and will fly again another day.
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Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Hey guys, cut the profanity here. Let's relax a bit rabbit. Bobbi, I agree with you that the racing west has slowed considerably. Will not make it near Jamaica if that's where they're headed.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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if anyone wants to debate my opinion and forecasts, go ahead. If we all had the same forecasts, what would be the point in posting them?
also, here is the Lili-97L comparison I was talking about
Lili and 97L
Edited by Rabbit (Wed Jul 21 2004 05:50 PM)
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I think that Lili is comparable in some ways to 97L, but then no two storms are alike. I don't think this wave is ready to go out just yet. I wonder whether its current appearance has something to do with the multiple vortices that may be present, and its subsequent change in organisation. The shear 97L is experiencing is less than what it was last night, so I think the system has a fair chance. Just my humble opinion.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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message board got real slow all of a sudden, I assume alot of you are eating dinner
i guess I'll go and do the same
last post for a few days, unless I can get to a computer
just a quick note:
TWC is continually saying no storm has developed in E Caribbean July 21-31, but Hurricane Cesar did on July 24 1996, so it will be interesting to watch as this one enters the western caribbean
Still dont think it'll develop, but I'll wait and see what tomorrow brings
hopefully I'll get an early birthday present from the weather
I be here on Saturday, I'll be on a casino ship 
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Boy wouldn't a touch of humility be nice right about now. Come on folks this is the tropics, everybody will get humbled by season's end. Agree with Jason, this sucka is persistent. The apex of 97L is pretty clear on vis right now. Convection will re-fire later tonight. Where it goes? Well, if it stays a wave (which I doubt) it'll probably end up in Belize (hehe). But should it slow and get to become Alex, then bets are off. Trough still hanging around off the Keys, but ridging will be building behind the wave. Low still expected to develop off SE coast and may hang around a bit. If another shortwave rotates though this weekend, who knows where it might end up. But look at it this way, it'll keep us entertained until the next development
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Don't worry on people's opinion.. especially those posting anonymously. Maybe they got caught out in a rainstorm today w/o an umbrella..
Boy..leave this place for a half an hour and you miss all the fun
Okay...the reason I came on was to post that Brian Norcross talked about the wave.. reiterating it being a WAVE but also saying that he felt it would end up intensifying into what could be the first depression of the season. He might have even said storm but I don't remember. Point is.. he doesn't seem to think it is dead.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Bugs
Thank you for heeding my admonition. If you don't get to post again, have a GREAT 21st birthday. Don't remember too much of mine, only that an entire town in Wales (population 20) was buying me pints all evening long.
Yeah, it gets quiet around 5-7 pm here, pro'ly 'cause everyone's driving home from work and then having dinner. It will be interesting to see if your doom and gloom predictions for 97L come to the fore...at the very least you backed up everything you said, whether it's sound meterology or not I'm not the one to know, but it made for some good, lively discussion. THAT'S what the boards are for!
I'll be interested to hear HanKFranK's take on this wave, I am hoping later this e'en.
Peace out y'all,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys,
time for my usual evening post. Looking at the satellite imagery as the light begins to fade over 97L, there is definite evidence of a circulation in the southwest quadrant of the convection. Whether this is mid-level or surface i cannot say, and i dont wish to speculate. Convection has weakened a little, but is to be expected with a developing and weak system. However, what convection there is seems to be taking on banding features. I dont see this being classified at least until recon have been out on Thursday, but i will be very interested to see what they find if it holds together. With an improving upper-level atmosphere then this thing has a reasonable shot at becoming our first Tropical Cyclone of the season.
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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