James88
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As you said Rich, it's certainly very well defined. I wouldn't be that surprised if it managed to become a TD, but I'm a little sceptical that it will develop before it reaches cooler waters. Even if it does get classified, it would probably be around for less than 24 hours. Still, any activity at all would be nice, and maybe it will develop. Despite my scepticism, I do think it has a chance to become TD #1.
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Steve
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I'm sticking with 97L's remnants OS. No way that sucker dies off that easily. It's been persistent. 98L has a pretty nice circulation. Let's see what happens when the trade wind surge energy gets entrained. I think both are possibilities for early next week . 97L would be an issue for maybe Texas or Mexico and 98L perhaps for the N.E. states or the Maritimes. I'm still shaking off the cobwebs so I'm not researching much this morning.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rich B
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Well the low-level circulation, small and tight as it is, located east of Cape Haterras is now begining to move into the area of deep convection in its eastern semicircle. This area of convection is slowly growing, and is wrapping in to the circulation, especially in the north and east quadrants. If this trend carries it may actually become our first classified system of the season. 
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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James88
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It may well do!  It is looking better than it did earlier, and even then it looked pretty good. Based on its current appearance, I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of classification. To be honest I didn't expect it to get better organised so quickly, but now that it has, I would give it a much better chance of development.
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LoisCane
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Seems to me that half the room believes the tropical wave split in two and like a dog refusing to give up its bone we are claiming victory either way because..
either something swirls in the gulf
or
it swirls off the E coast and
either way its from the old wave so..
we were right .. if something forms its from that wave
funny when you think on it
will concede that the system off of the Atlantic as Rich said may become our first coordinated entity .. maybe Alex, but will it be truly tropical or a rogue storm
either way may bring glancing rains to someone up the way
as for west bound wave part..not sure it didnt sweep up into yucatan area and might get something going in gulf i just dont think the gulf is going to be very active this season.. not this way
and... wave out in Atlantic that Steve Lyons is making fun of may not be very convectively exciting but its there and more so has a twist and held its own for a long distance so wouldnt write it off
area ne of PR is showers interacting with various upper level winds, hoping it will enhance showers in this area if it keeps going..
I dont need enhancement, need action and need the real thing
But either way we can all say energy from that wave got transported up into the atlantic and helped make a boring little alex
who knows.. alex could go north and stay close enough in to give everyone a messy vacation on Martha's Vineyard or whatever is at the tip of the Cape
Bobbi
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jul 25 2004 03:12 PM)
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Rich B
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Well say that development is not likely as the system is going to head towards cooler waters. Still think it has a chance though, all be it a short lived shot!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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LoisCane
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has its little arm up like its saying "charge" and trying to reach that moisture
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Kevin
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http://www.independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html
Nothing looks imminent at this point. The system east of the the US East Coast tried valiantly for a couple of days, but no cigar.
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James88
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Noticed that the seems a little less aggressive in its prediction of a tropical system in a few days. Still, as others have said, the models are quite unreliable with their long range forecasts. That's not to say nothing will happen, though. , AVN, UKMET and still want to bring an area of low pressure of the African coast in the near future, but then they all lose the system later in the period  . I really hope something does develop - it's been 7 1/2 months since the last Atlantic system. If we don't have a named storm by August 4th, that will be the first time since 1992. Oh well, time is ticking away, and we are slowly approaching the busy time.
Edited by James88 (Sun Jul 25 2004 05:12 PM)
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Steve
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IMHO, we've got a shot at 3 systems in the upcoming week. 97L will move into the Western Gulf sometime tomorrow. Then it's just a matter of seeing what it's got. As we were discussing last weekend, it will either be a classified system (which I've thought all along except right after it died off south of Cuba) or it will be a surge of deep tropical moisture. With the cold front (I don't think it gets into the coastal waters east of Texas except maybe the extreme NW Gulf) changing the wind direction and the 'cool' high pressure over the central MS Valley, an ultimate turn to north should feed in some action into Texas (original thought) or perhaps Louisiana & Mississippi (current thinking). FWIW, this isn't a wishcast. The tropical moisture will get drawn into the front which will be in my backyard. The key with this system has always been to wait (patiently or impatiently) until it got into the Gulf of Mexico. With the ULL diving SW in front of it and with the front on its way (currently the dry line runs SW-NE from AZ to IA), it's going to be a question of timing.
As for 98L, the transformation to potentially something tropical is underway. The LLC has seen some convection but it needs more energy which should be supplied via the P.R. wave/surge in trade winds. Bastardi likens the potential "surprise" to 1985's Henri which out of the blue popped off the VA coast. He's not saying look at the VA coast, but there should be tons of tropical moisture with the front to rain out several of the big cities and areas further inland. He thinks it will move NW then North down the line.
Finally, the wave N of Puerto Rico seems to be most active on its southern flank. With the easterly push from behind, it can only go W or WNW. We'll have to wait and see if it wants to turn into something on its own or if it only wants to impart energy into the other systems.
Steve
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LoisCane
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Okay I can deal with that..that's why we are all here. Trading opinons, would be a pretty boring discussion if we all agreed with eachother now...wouldn't it?
Looking all over for something worthy of discussion and not much to say except..waiting.
And... I want to say something about the wave entering the Gulf but I really can't. I don't see it yet. Steve posed the set up well ...still, just cause you give a party doesnt mean the guest of honor will arrive. But, I do keep glancing over to check.
And..all I want to say is that all that glitters isn't gold. And, just because you see reds on the IR doesn't mean there is something happening. System near PR fires up and so does southern edge of the trough where everyone is watching the northern edge for development.
And, out in the Atlantic. Nothing...nothing much but its as there ..as is Steve's remnants entering the Gulf.
This is the first season since almost 1992 w/o something on the maps.. not even some barely passable named system about ready to dive into Tex/Mex line.
Found notes from 2003 season, first early storm and well just shows you that an early start to the season does not mean a great season ..just an early season.
Think we are getting closer, much closer.. really don't believe we won't get through July without something, so holding on to that dream anyway.
Someone say something incredibly intelligent about some model or a new angle where we can view all the areas we are watching that don't have as much rain as Miami is having today.
Lastly.... want to say... 3 cities that are way overdue for a Florida Cane. No special reason, no analogs, no dreams, just the honest truth... overdue for a dead on hit.
Ft. Lauderdale
Tampa
Jax
thought that keeps hitting me over and over..
Ft. Lauderdale
Bobbi
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jul 25 2004 08:23 PM)
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HanKFranK
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interesting corollary, henri of '85... don't think this one will be classified, though. 98L is just far enough east so that the already drenched areas of north jersey don't get a great deal out of it, but southern new england could very well get soaked. SSTs fall off fairly rapidly north of hatteras/va capes, so should just be a tropical low/rainstorm for monday. if it is classified.. well, it'll just be a t.d. 4 of 2000 type system. not illiciting classifications so that's a doubtful outcome.
97L has to contend with a stronger easterly flow.. which has been inducing lower-level shear and pushing vorticity below 700mb or so out ahead of the convection being supported in the area. not sure about fallen heights to the north having much of an effect.. it probably won't develop.. so most of the moisture influx should stay to the south in mexico. i'm not for it developing.. looked good for it back on tue-wed.. kinda pissant now.
past these features, nothing on in the believable future that's worth mentioning. the stuff out there will need several runs of relative agreement on trouble before they have any credibility.
mjo is acting funny.. on the anomaly charts it did a backstep... it's wave seems to have split and given it a multiple phase. possibly had something to do with lingering in the negative, or the late but harsh arrival of the monsoon in south asia. it will be hard to time the arrival of the next wave, since the neat and regular propagation earlier this year has gotten mixed up.
nino 3/4 is in the warm phase now. 1/2 are hanging in the cold phase. this is similar to last year and the year before that (perhaps a compromise of the two). continues to hang negative, so the onset of el nino is becoming a likelihood.
HF 1835z25july
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LoisCane
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i agree hankfrank
its a definite possibility and something to think on..
been thinking on it for a while as we had no gulf season to speak of..none..and thats rare and can complain about a lot of various possible reasons but... still winds there have been as if an invisible el nino was out there messing things up..
and... negative tilt.. will see.. you know im not one to play with the tilt thing too much
and dont think its here unless its invisible but you have to watch the signs sometimes and wonder..
late afternoon and nothing looks better than it did this morning
"SOI continues to hang negative, so the onset of el nino is becoming a likelihood"
and yeah...andrew was in a relatively el nino year, wasnt it?
yeah yeah ..you only need one but whatcha gonna do if you get two at the same time?
could happen
its possible
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James88
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Forgive me for just briefly changing the subject to El Nino, but if it does materialise later in the year, is it possible to know whether it will have a supressing effect on the 2005 Atlantic season, or is it too far away to know? My guess is that it is too distant, but I'm not sure.
On a more related note, SSTs in the GOM have begun to warm again, so if the wave formerly known as 97L can make it there, it would have a good shot at development. Note the emphasis on 'IF'. The wave in the Caribbean is still holding onto its convection, but it seems to be weakening, and the convection may be disrupted if the system brushes the Dominican Republic and Haiti. We should probably look east for development during the coming days and weeks.
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danielw
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97L still hanging on!!
Still really hard to tell, but there appears to be a low level circulation off the NW cuban coast. Shows up best on the water vapor loops. Cuban radar is no help. Buoys all ok, stable right now. Nothing but the diurnal rise and fall. What about the mini-wave/trough moving westward across lower Louisiana. Any thoughts on this?
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 25 2004 08:32 PM)
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James88
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It isn't looking too impressive at the moment, but then as you said it probably has something to do with the diurnal rise and fall. It might look a little better in the morning.
The TWD has something interesting to say about a wave in the C. Atlantic:-
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NE AND A
TROUGH FORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE WAVE NEARS THE
LESSER ANTILLES.
Could be interesting in a few days. There are warm SSTs, the SAL is not too potent in that region, but there is a pall of dry air hanging throughout most of the Caribbean. Still, maybe this wave will be something to watch in a few days.
BTW, doesn't Dr Gray release his updated forecast next week? It will be interesting to see whether he leaves his numbers the same or not.
Edited by James88 (Sun Jul 25 2004 09:15 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Convective activity at the base of the west Atlantic trough, although on the wane at the moment, appears to have a weak circulation near 16.1N 67.9W at 22Z. Seems to be low-level and movement is slowly westward.
Cheers,
ED
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Justin in Miami
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Yes Bobbi....I actually live in Ft. Lauderdale...we have not seen a direct hit from a cane since probably the 1940-60 high activity period (King, Cleo, and the late 40s storms); then we saw a number of brushes, scrapes and hits. We shall see.
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LoisCane
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I think if El Nino forms it shouldnt have a big effect on the season. We are in late July... one or two good 's phases with the waves we have going and we should have an atlantic hurricane season..
yes, 1997 came on like gangbusters but really is pretty rare and believe that was referred to as the El Nino of all El Ninos so .. doubt it will effect the season which is coming up fast.
I mean height of the season is less than 2 months away, would have to be a bigger one that 97 to have that sort of effect..
dont you think?
closer to December... late November, thats my guess
something isnt being figured into this if you ask me, missing some factor here i think
as they say hindsight is 20/20
but its way too quiet
bobbi
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danielw
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97L Remnants. This one has 9 lives. You can still see the circulation just N of the NW tip of Cuba. Looks like a little drier air is being swallowed on the NW quadrant. I guess sunrise will tell us if it will remain together. A large NE to SW swath of dry air in ahead of the circulation, with some east to west shear, so I doubt it will make much northern progress overnite.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
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