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James88
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New E. Pacific Invest
      #16222 - Sun Jul 18 2004 01:23 PM

92E is currently off the Mexican coast, and looks quite good on satellite imagery. There definately seems to be a turn in the clouds and there is convection building up over the centre. Maybe it will be christened TD #4E later today if it holds together. It is in a good spot - there are favourable conditions and it is over warm waters. Perhaps it will become Celia. Anyone have any thoughts?

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Anonymous
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Re: New E. Pacific Invest [Re: James88]
      #16238 - Sun Jul 18 2004 07:25 PM

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has a alert which says that an area of distrubed weather a few hundred miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas has reached tropical depression strength. I don't think this is the same invest just off the Mexican coast, but could also become TD4-E.

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LI Phil
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Celia [Re: Anonymous]
      #16285 - Mon Jul 19 2004 02:53 PM

Just released T-numbers for 04E: 3.0/3.0. Yep, about to become Celia.

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James88
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Re: Celia [Re: LI Phil]
      #16349 - Tue Jul 20 2004 03:29 AM

The last discussion forecasts Celia to peak just shy of hurricane strength. However, it looks to have become better organised since the last advisory with deep convection maintaining itself over a larger area. It has 24-48 hours of warm water left (notice that the E. Pacific has cooled somewhat over the past week), and I wouldn't be surprised to see it make minimal hurricane status.

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LI Phil
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Re: Celia [Re: James88]
      #16361 - Tue Jul 20 2004 10:52 AM

James,

Sustained winds now at 60 MPH with gusts to 70+, and forecasted to strengthen over the next 24 hours before she hits cooler waters. She's only moving at about 7 MPH, so she'll spend plenty of time over warmer waters. Will she make it to Hurricane? It's going to be close, real close.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Celia [Re: LI Phil]
      #16391 - Tue Jul 20 2004 05:55 PM

I may be wrong, but if you look at the storm floater visible image and loop, it kinda looks like Celia is developing an eye. It could be just a transient feature, but it is an interesting development.

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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Celia [Re: James88]
      #16393 - Tue Jul 20 2004 06:09 PM

I don't think she's developing an eye, but circulation does appear to be tightening a bit. Winds are down to 50 MPH, and although some additional strengthening is possible, it doesn't look like she'll ever make it to Hurricane Strength. Although latest Dvorak #s are listed at 3.0/3.0, I wouldn't be surprised if they are a shade lower than that, probably on the order of 2.5/2.5.

She's still only moving at 7 MPH, and will be over warm waters for about another day, so it's not impossible to reach H-strength, but highly unlikely.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Re: Celia [Re: LI Phil]
      #16410 - Wed Jul 21 2004 03:49 AM

She doesn't look any better on satellite imagery this morning, so she has probably not strengthened. She's probably peaked as a 50kt storm. Obviously you were right about the 'eye', Phil. The latest discussion on Celia says that it was just a "SHORT-LIVED EYE-WANNABE". Oh well. She's giving us something to watch while we wait and see what becomes of 97L.

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LI Phil
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Re: Celia [Re: James88]
      #16471 - Wed Jul 21 2004 03:44 PM

Dvorak #'s up to 4.0/4.0. We might have Hurricane Celia at 5:00!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Celia [Re: LI Phil]
      #16474 - Wed Jul 21 2004 03:57 PM

There does seem to have been an eye embedded in the convection for the last several hours, so you're probably right Phil. Remember last year - it took until Ignacio to get a hurricane!

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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Celia [Re: James88]
      #16485 - Wed Jul 21 2004 04:39 PM

The latest discussion places Celia just shy of hurricane strength at 60kts. It says that Celia may become a hurricane in the next 6-12 hours. Nearly there, and it's going to be a close call.

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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Celia [Re: James88]
      #16502 - Wed Jul 21 2004 05:24 PM

At 5:00, winds 70 MPH. Just shy of H status. It won't need much strengthening to become a hurric, but it's beginning to run out of time. Maybe at 11?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Reged: Tue
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Hurricane Celia [Re: LI Phil]
      #16537 - Thu Jul 22 2004 02:39 AM

Yep, Celia is now a hurricane. She is looking good on imagery, with plenty of deep convection. She is not forecast to get any stronger but I wouldn't be that surprised if it edged up to 70 kts before weakening (at least based on her current appearance).

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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Celia [Re: James88]
      #16545 - Thu Jul 22 2004 10:47 AM

Celia. She sure showed more 'stones' than 97L, but of course her enviroment is a lot better. On her current track, she may be able to hold together a bit longer than previously forecasted, and with the warm waters surrounding Hawaii, could be a playah for the Islands down the road. She'll need to be watched a while longer than I had expected.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Hurricane Celia [Re: LI Phil]
      #16707 - Sun Jul 25 2004 04:59 PM

Well, the last advisory (#29) has been issued on Celia. She was the longest lasting system of the season to date, and she unexpectedly reached hurricane status. Not a bad little storm. She certainly gave us something to watch during the quiet time in the Atlantic. Next up, Darby.

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