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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Darby?
      #16717 - Mon Jul 26 2004 05:03 AM

Looks like the E. Pacific season is really starting to warm up:-

000
WOPZ41 KNHC 260800
DSAEP
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 AM PDT MON JUL 26 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 765 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...HAS BECOME
MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...THEN A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WOULD LIKELY FORM LATER TODAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

In fact, NRL have put a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on the system.

While the Atlantic remains starved of activity, at least the E. Pacific is giving us something to watch for a while.

Edited by James88 (Mon Jul 26 2004 05:08 AM)


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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Darby? [Re: James88]
      #16781 - Mon Jul 26 2004 04:37 PM

I'm probably posting a tad early (should wait for the 5:00 update), but I would bet this system is a TD. Dvorak #s at 2.0/2.0. Although NHC didn't classify 98L with the same numbers earlier today.

In a favorable environment for development, and forecasted to strengthen. If not a TD today, then definitely tomorrow.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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James88
Weather Master


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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Darby? [Re: LI Phil]
      #16784 - Mon Jul 26 2004 04:44 PM

Yes, you were right Phil, the first advisory makes it TD #5E at 30kts. It is forecasted to reach 60kts in 72 hours and then maintain that throughout the forecast period. I wouldn't be surprised if it got a little stronger though, since the first advisory is sometimes too low on intensity forecasts. Perhaps it will even become Hurricane Darby.

I wonder whether the E. Pacific will get any major storms this year, because they didn't in 2003. Maybe this one will reach that status, but I'm looking a bit far ahead. Time will tell.


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Darby? [Re: James88]
      #16818 - Tue Jul 27 2004 12:47 PM

Well, Darby is looking good today. It has been maintaining very deep convection, will be over warm seas for another 2 -3 days and there is little shear forecast. This seems to have a good shot at becoming a CAT 3 or more. Anyone have any thoughts?

3:35pm - Wow, Darby is developing an eye, so it will probably be a hurricane at the next advisory.

Edited by James88 (Tue Jul 27 2004 03:36 PM)


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Rob_M
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Reged: Wed
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Re: Darby? [Re: James88]
      #16863 - Wed Jul 28 2004 02:54 PM

The latest CI estimate from the SAB is 5.0...which correlates to about 90KT. Could have a category 2 next advisory if the good organization persists.

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


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James88
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Reged: Tue
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Re: Darby? [Re: Rob_M]
      #16864 - Wed Jul 28 2004 03:02 PM

If it does reach 90kts at the next advisory (which is 10kts above the current maximum intensity forecast) do you think it could reach minimal CAT 3 status? It does have about another 24 - 36 hours over warm water, so it does have an oppurtunity. Does anyone have any thoughts?



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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
CAT II Darby [Re: James88]
      #16884 - Wed Jul 28 2004 07:23 PM

Yep. 105 mile per hour CAT II Darby. It won't maintain this for too long, and it definitely won't get to CAT III status. Still, sure is purdy to look at.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Reged: Tue
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
CAT 3 Hurricane Darby! [Re: LI Phil]
      #16900 - Thu Jul 29 2004 04:33 AM

Wow, Darby has unexpectedly intensified to a 105kt (120mph) CAT 3 hurricane! The advisory says that the winds have increased by 70 kts in 54 hours, with the latest burst of intensification having occured over sub - 27 degree water.
What a fascinating hurricane - it keeps coming up with surprises!

On top of all this, a new tropical depression has formed in the E. Pacific. Seems like it's making up for the lack of June activity.

Edited by James88 (Thu Jul 29 2004 04:34 AM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
CAT 2 Hurricane Darby! [Re: James88]
      #16971 - Thu Jul 29 2004 05:02 PM

Well, Darby's life as a CAT III, though surprising, was short lived. He's back down to a CAT II and expected to weaken to a CAT I in the next 24 hours. Of note is the new trop dep which has formed off of Cabo san Lucas. Models barely take it to TS strength due to shear from Darby. Still, though, four named (most likely) storms in 2 weeks. Will this teleconnect back in the Atlantic?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
06E bites the dust [Re: LI Phil]
      #17021 - Fri Jul 30 2004 08:31 AM

Well, 06E never made it. Oh well, would have been nice to get one more TS in the EPAC.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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LI Phil
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06E back from the dead [Re: LI Phil]
      #17408 - Mon Aug 02 2004 11:28 AM

Looks like 06E is risen. Now forecasted to make TS strength. Wonder if it will have the stones to make a run at the Big Island?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 06E back from the dead [Re: LI Phil]
      #17647 - Tue Aug 03 2004 05:17 PM

And it's gone again without making TS status. It was a persistent system though.

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