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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Kevin
Weather Master


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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Models [Re: LI Phil]
      #16939 - Thu Jul 29 2004 04:36 PM

Hey Phil!

On 99L's recon map, does that "I" stand for where the system is now? Like intialization or something? The invest tomorrow is wnw of there, so could that possibly be the movement in the next 24 hours? That seems a little fast...


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Steve hirsch.
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Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16940 - Thu Jul 29 2004 04:37 PM

Kinda agree. Stuff at the lower levels is moving west, but 99L is really just sitting. And as the surface circulation begins to take hold, it could be in an area where the steering currents are weak. If it waits long enough, it could be wagons west. If it does move in the near term, its Carolina bound.

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Anonymous
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Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas [Re: Steve hirsch.]
      #16943 - Thu Jul 29 2004 05:05 PM

The trough that could pick this storm up and send it northwest is along the East Coast now...I guess if that doesn't do the trick we'll see the BH build back in.

I haven't given much thought to the Florida scenario.


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Kevin
Weather Master


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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas [Re: Anonymous]
      #16944 - Thu Jul 29 2004 05:06 PM

^
I posted that


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Posts: 428
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas [Re: Kevin]
      #16946 - Thu Jul 29 2004 05:10 PM

I had seen somewhere about that possibility, the ridge , or the BH, building up; that would force the storm west, right?

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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

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bobbi
Unregistered




what happens if it doesnt move in the near term? [Re: Steve hirsch.]
      #16947 - Thu Jul 29 2004 05:10 PM

then what?

and if the gulf system does develop?


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bobbi
Unregistered




Keys comment [Re: bobbi]
      #16954 - Thu Jul 29 2004 06:56 PM

Wanted to add that throughout the day persistently there has been a second twist in the radar due south of the Key in the Straits. South of Key Largo to the Middle Keys.. Saw it this morning but wasn't sure and watching it again. The area (one of strong convection) turns on its own axis. And, has done so for a while.

I don't think the Gulf area is all that organized and had heard a few local mets say originally they expected development in the Straits.

Either way... area to its east is inhibiting development .. possibly shearing/shredding it apart a bit.

Question.. when was the last time there was such a set up with two developing systems on either side of Florida?

And...note with 29 anonymous users online right now.. we are getting real quick into the BUSY time


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