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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 91L [Re: danielw]
      #17371 - Mon Aug 02 2004 09:36 AM

The models take 91L into the Caribbean. Here's a link:-

Model runs on 91L


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 91L [Re: James88]
      #17372 - Mon Aug 02 2004 09:41 AM

Latest Sat on 91L. Think we might have a problem here-Miami!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 91L [Re: James88]
      #17373 - Mon Aug 02 2004 09:52 AM

Looks like the Caribbean is Not the place to be this week!

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 91L Visible Sat [Re: danielw]
      #17374 - Mon Aug 02 2004 10:11 AM

Here's the first VIS pic of 91L from GOES-E. The outflow to the North can be seen. Better shot than the IR and WV.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES09452004215cqqClO.jpg

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 02 2004 10:20 AM)


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James88
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Re: 91L Visible Sat [Re: danielw]
      #17375 - Mon Aug 02 2004 10:33 AM

Wow, 91L is really looking quite good this morning - perhaps a TD later today. Meanwhile, Alex is looking very impressive.
There is a persistent area of very deep convection, and a high pressure ridge is giving him great outlflow.

Edited by James88 (Mon Aug 02 2004 10:34 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Recon [Re: James88]
      #17376 - Mon Aug 02 2004 10:40 AM

Plane is airborne and found 35kt winds at flight level.
97779 10264 20301 78100 30100 24035 0904/ /3148
RMK AF866 0601A ALEX OB 03


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James88
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Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #17377 - Mon Aug 02 2004 12:12 PM

Wow...

Tropical Storm Alex Special Advisory Number 8


Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 02, 2004



...Alex strengthens...
Radar imagery and reports from an Air Force reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Alex has begun to strengthen.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from South Santee River
South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina...including the
Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for north of Cape Hatteras
to Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A tropical storm watch also
remains in effect from Edisto Beach to South Santee River South
Carolina.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located
near latitude 31.3 north...longitude 79.0 west or about 120
miles...south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Alex has been drifting eastward over the past few hours.
However...a slow motion toward the north or northeast is expected
over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Alex
will be slowly approaching the coasts of south and North Carolina
later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.

An Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft recently reported
a minimum central pressure of 992 mb...29.29 inches.

Storm total rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches...with isolated
higher amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.
High surf and rip currents will affect much of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next couple of days.
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...31.3 N... 79.0 W. Movement
...Drifting east. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 992 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Franklin



Perhaps his chances of becoming a hurricane are on the up.

Edited by James88 (Mon Aug 02 2004 12:15 PM)


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javlin
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Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #17378 - Mon Aug 02 2004 12:14 PM

Alex should really start to feel that pressure today to move E and N.The frontal boundry to the W is making a good push.The storm needs more room on the W side to make hurricane strength if it does.The wave out E of the Islands looks really good this morning and the one behind looks like it might form also.The island's look like they are going to be busy for the next couple of weeks.Then their is another wave poised to exit in a few days that looks healthy over land.We will have to see if promises anything for the future.The Cape season seems to be in full swing.I tlooks by James post that it has already begun.

Edited by javlin (Mon Aug 02 2004 12:18 PM)


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James88
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Re: Recon [Re: javlin]
      #17379 - Mon Aug 02 2004 12:22 PM

Hurricane Alex?

** WTNT41 KNHC 021212 ***
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST
INTENSITY OF ALEX. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF ALEX
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 992 MB AND THE PEAK 850 MB
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 62 KT. THIS IS EQUIVALENT TO ROUGHLY 50 KT
AT THE SURFACE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW BRINGS ALEX TO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY
THERE...HOWEVER...FOR ALEX TO STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE THAN SHOWN
BELOW AND BECOME A HURRICANE.

ONLY THE 12-HOUR POSITION FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1200Z 31.3N 79.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 32.2N 78.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 33.4N 77.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 35.3N 74.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 37.5N 70.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 43.0N 59.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/0600Z 49.0N 44.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY extratropical LOW

If you looked on the radar loops earlier, there was a hint of an eye. This storm is full of surprises!


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cyclone_head
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Re: Alex menacing the coastal southeast [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17385 - Mon Aug 02 2004 01:25 PM

Menacing is a good term to use for Alex. Although for a "home grown" storm he/she looks pretty good. Here is the bouy data for 40 NM Southeast of Savanah.

http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41008


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: danielw]
      #17393 - Mon Aug 02 2004 01:57 PM

There was a report up, but, I think it was an old one that was posted from last year...I reacall it being "01 August", but, it had been on there a year, and I think it came up ont he site (NHC) by mistake. Anyway, Look at Alex this morning (Mon)!

sc


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BillD
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Re: recon [Re: Anonymous]
      #17395 - Mon Aug 02 2004 02:11 PM

They were fooling around with the website last night. During the course of an hour the flight vortex info changed back and forth from one with a date/time of "COM TEST COM TEST", to the real one. And the TEST one had lower pressure and higher winds and lat/long somewhere out in the Pacific (although it was listed under Atlantic recon).

Just checked and they are doing it again:

000
URPN12 KNHC 221708
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. COM TEST COM TEST
B. 18 DEG 03 MIN N
149 DEG 27 MIN W
C. 700 MB 3017 M
D. 65 KT
E. 057 DEG 020 NM
F. 144 DEG 68 KT
G. 058 DEG 018 NM
H. 990 MB
I. 10 C/ 3061 M
J. 19 C/ 3041 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. E09/20/15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.5/2.0 NM
P. AF968 0110E JIMENA OB 15
MAX FL WIND 68 KT NE QUAD 1703Z. COM TEST

Bill


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bobbi
Unregistered




triplets [Re: BillD]
      #17417 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:34 PM

if you think those two out over water look good.. take a look at the one still over mid-Africa..

three of the healthiest looking waves ive seen in ages

one has to develop..

as for alex, think if anything they are being overly conservative, waiting to see if he continues his intensification trend.. cant say i blame them..


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