LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Cheers, Steve,
Great post.
Check out the comedy forum (if you {well not you]) can find it. Some funny stuff from days past and then from today...
Cheers, that 11:00 update is comming (HF) soon...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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lol laughing.. thinking on steve's post and others..
Haven't a real clue what TD 2 is doing. Have thoughts.. might be reforming more to the SW..
Looked at loops.. can't figure out if its a bad sign or a good sign, sort of looks like it might be wrapping again.. hmmmnn
Will see.. Agree with Steve. Call it a night and going to go off into fantasy land.
sweet dreams and yes.. Alex was one heck of a storm.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Not a popular position, but I don't think that it ever has been a Tropical Depression. Too many factors are missing. No west wind that I could detect - the Islands may soon confirm that. No established center - bouncing all over the place - still is. Convection still disorganized and has not improved much in the past two days - the rapid forward speed has kept development in check.
Probably will remain a TD or an open wave for the next two days. Strong westerly shear will see to that. Dry air ahead of the system really isn't all that dry, so that's a plus. Low shear zone around the wave itself is travelling with the system - also a plus.
I still think that this system, if it can survive the next couple of days, will make it to TS status - probably late Thursday or early Friday. With the rapid movement and a weak center further south than currently officially indicated, I just can't accept the 'cruise to Bermuda' scenario, i.e., I like Door #3.
Its a 'wait and see' for the next couple of days. There is a small chance that it might make TS status before then, but if it does, it will not intensify significantly until Friday or Saturday.
Cheers,
ED
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Gee Ed:
Was saying that a few times this afternoon and early tonight and you are right they don't want to hear that, to me looked like a strong wave, guess we need to wait and see what Air Recon has.
Dave
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Couple of late night notes. 1) this drink is very strong. 2) I'll check the comedy stuff soon. 3) Check out these obnoxious SST's in the northern Gulf. This is one of those times I'd like to use Bastardi's ideas against him. But there's nothing on the playing field. My landfall forecast has some central gulf hits, though nothing severe until east of me. But if this keeps up, forget about it.
High Res SST Link
4) the waves in Africa looked better on the visible than they do on the IR tonight. I'll give 'em another look tomorrow.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I checked the 00Z soundings from Trinidad and Guateloupe and they agree with ED. TTPP-Trinidad showing 75% or greater Rel Hum. up to 546mb and winds from the ENE-E.
Guadeloupe sounding not quite as moist. Shows >70% rel. hum SFC to 800mb-with 95% at 800mb! Winds are constant 075 deg up to 456mb level.
Guadeloupe and Trinidad indicating S-SW winds above the 200mb level.
If I read this right it doesn't seem that there is very much shear present.
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
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I know this is not talking about Alex or TD2 - but I would like to THANK everyone on this site for their posts. From when I was able to check in - this message board has the best updated information and most accurate forecasts.
I commend Ed, LI Phil, HankFrank, Mike C. and John C for running such an outstanding board.
And to all the other posters - I learned things today that I never knew about while tracking Alex. Thanks.
Bring on the rest of the 2004 season !!!!
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Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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some of us had fun with those challenges ed posted last year over in the forum.. so i added one this evening on t.d. 2. unless you've got a completely solid idea on what the system will be doing, go ahead and post away tonight, but entries prior to 10 p.m. tomorrow night will be kosher.
so anyhow, go check out the new forum challenge and take a really good look at what's going on with the t.d.
HF 0444z04august
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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hey by the way, james88 and byett.. you guys see the post-tropical forecast track for alex? some of the globals are keeping it fairly intense.. if it keeps that path there might be a decent breeze over in the old country sunday into monday.
HF 0454z04august
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This is Barbados latest observation. It's an hour old.
Conditions at Aug 04, 2004 - 12:00 AM EDT
2004.08.04 0400 UTC
Wind from the SE (140 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT)
Visibility 2 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Heavy rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 100%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TBPB 0404300Z 14014KT 4000 +SHRA FEW010CB SCT014 OVC035 25/25 Q1014 CB E-SE AND N
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Will Ed you may be right was it a TD early yesterday I thnk she was not now though.I will continue to say she is moving to fast to turn YET.She has defied all models thus far and is well south of the expected position.TD2 is about to enter the boneyard of the canes.If she should live for next couple of days she might get named.TD2 is to far S I think to get caught by the trough by the path it has been taking.Now at 1am cdt she seems to be relocating even further S than what was projected.Bobbi brought it up earlier that little development may ensure a further track W.Leave it at that time to sleep off the passion.
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Joe
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well as others have already suggested this doesn't appear to be a TD, but more of a wave then anything. Quickscat doesn't suggest a closed circulation. IR goes along with that theme of it being more of a wave with no LLC as showers and thunderstorms are spread into a more north to south line. But still give this a 60-70% of developing as foward speed decreases once it passes the islands. All in all expect this to likely be downgraded some time today (before or after recon flight).
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well, the T-numbers for TD#2 are up to 2.5/2.5 - tropical storm strength. There has been a large blow up of convection over the past few hours, so maybe there is a centre reforming further south.
Edited by James88 (Wed Aug 04 2004 06:44 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Now an hour old!
TAPA 040600Z 08014KT 9999 SCT022 27/24 Q1013
TFFF 040630Z 04007G17KT 9999 TS SCT005 BKN016CB BKN050 25/24 Q1011 TE MPO TSRA
TNCM 040600Z 09007KT 060V130 9999 SCT019TCU 27/23 Q1015 TCU SE
TBPB 040600Z 18017KT 6000 -TSRA SCT009CB SCT032 BKN080 25/25 Q1012 CB ALL QUADS
TLPL 040600Z VRB02KT 8000 -SHRA FEW012CB BKN018 26/23 Q1011 RET S
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Tropical depression two is becoming much better organized! 
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Don't know what this morning will bring TD2, but she does have some punch, and there is something of a low pressure in the mix. The islands are getting some weather, and you can tell where she is, as well as where she's not. The T-numbers are 2.5, but I haven't seen a west wind yet . St. Lucia has NNE wind, which would make sense, and pressure's down at 1011MB. Barbados had S winds at 20 MPH, 1012 MB, but didn't even report for the 1AM hour, when TD2 was close. Darn!!! I'm trying to get a feel for what she's doing, but this is just about how they did it a hundred years ago........ 
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The latest advisory puts the TD at 30kts again. There is still a lot of uncertainty about whether a circulation exists, and there is still the very real possibility that recon will find an open wave. We shall see...
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I don't have the final picture from recon yet. It appears they have found a "turning" profile in the winds. I'll post the data here and let you be the judge. They are still on the first leg, so it's incomplete data.
****_time___lat___long__flt lvl__wd/sp----------
97779 07004 40247 77800 56100 24018 53661 /4587
97779 07264 40238 75700 56100 23020 54/// /4591
97779 08004 40225 73100 56100 25020 54/// /4591
97779 08304 40213 70900 56200 99005 54/// /4590
97779 09014 40199 68700 56100 26010 53/// /4590
97779 09304 40187 66700 56200 99005 54//1 /4589
97779 10004 40173 64600 56200 08013 53//1 /4590
97779 10304 40160 62800 56300 06024 53//1 /4589
97779 10484 40152 63300 03000 03015 27249 /0012 40515
as of 1103Z
the headings were added by edit.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The last line of data in the above recon decodes as follows.
1048z 15.2N 63.3W Fltlvl 300mtrs(1000ft) wind 030dg at 15kts T 27C dpt 24C wx observed is a thunderstorm. sea level pres is 1012mb and sea surface winds are 050dg at 15kts
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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For those of you that might like to make your own tracking maps.
Here's the link. I prefer the 2mm with 10mm bold, a4 format. It's easier to plot out the tracks.
http://incompetech.com/beta/plainGraphPaper/
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