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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Frank P
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T's up slightly to 1.5 from 1.0 on exTD 2 [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18109 - Sun Aug 08 2004 08:47 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Dvorak Current Intensity Chart Link explained

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18110 - Sun Aug 08 2004 08:53 PM

For interest the GFDL has a new run on 91L.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Frank P
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Hey ANON WNW = 292.5 degrees [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18111 - Sun Aug 08 2004 08:56 PM

IF YOU WANT TO BE EXACT ABOUT IT
But I don't think the exact heading of this system is really known at the moment because we don't know exactly where the center is or exactly where it is going and it is a developing system, which makes it even harder, my direction was a general estimate at best,, but be that as it may, 300 degrees is not that far off from 292.5


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LoisCane
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Re: Possible TD in am? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18112 - Sun Aug 08 2004 09:07 PM

my thoughts for whatever they are worth.. writing from miami, its thundering outside suddenly

ive been watching this loop.. gives me good view of both systems, sort of a compare and contrast view..

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.html

old slow loop but gives you a feel for whole basin which i prefer sometimes to the old invest tho i am watching that too

looks like the environment around the yucatan is begging for development, still not sold on this philly and atlantic wave has a nice broad curved look but neither is a "for sure" bet yet

reading along, and watching
bobbi

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BillD
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Re: Hey ANON WNW = 292.5 degrees [Re: Frank P]
      #18113 - Sun Aug 08 2004 09:11 PM

Frank,

I had typed a similar reply and then deleted it without posting it. I think our best offense against these anon snipers is to ignore them (Ed has made it clear he will disappear posts like that).

Bill


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Old Sailor
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18114 - Sun Aug 08 2004 09:18 PM

Some early plots on 91L seems they just put them up.....

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/91LMDL01.html

Dave


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EMS
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Re: Hey ANON WNW = 292.5 degrees [Re: BillD]
      #18115 - Sun Aug 08 2004 09:19 PM

My first post here- I too have been watching the remnants of TD2 all day. Glad to find so many with my unrelenting interest in weather in general and the tropics in particular.

Take a look at the latest radar image from Cancun. I know I'm coming to the party quite late here, but I'm seeing a rapidly intensifying system. My guess is we're going to have a CAT 1/small CAT 2 hurricane stalled in the GOM within 48 hours.

http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm


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Frank P
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Old Sailor]
      #18116 - Sun Aug 08 2004 09:24 PM

actually Dave they've been up for a about an hour as I posted this info about 7:37 earlier tonight, the models I was refering to in that post was from hurricane alley... here are some more - see link below... GFDL also ran on the system but doesn't do anything with it (see Coops post earlier)

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/91LFA.html

model outputs 1 and 2 are active...


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Old Sailor
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Frank P]
      #18117 - Sun Aug 08 2004 09:35 PM

Frank, see what happens when you hit 75 eyes not like they use to be missed that one.. These early plots tend to be out all over the place, until we have an TD/TS then think we will have better model runs.

Dave


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Frank P
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My respects Old Sailor [Re: Old Sailor]
      #18118 - Sun Aug 08 2004 09:45 PM

Hey Mr. Dave I agree with you 100%.... I've never been a real big fan of models, but most especially in the early stages of TC development as the initialization is usually all screwed up to start with.... Hey, as I've always posted in this site... my favorite models are the ones wearing a bikini..... the convection looks pretty impressive on the cancun radar... sure wish I could get it to loop...

http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Old Sailor]
      #18119 - Sun Aug 08 2004 09:51 PM

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

NRL getting on the move! Old Sailor..don't sweat the small stuff.... I think we have something here and need you to stay in office!

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Old Sailor
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18121 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:00 PM

Thanks Frank and Storm,
The Navy does get a little faster jump on things then the NHC, don't think they call it a TD at 11:00PM but will if still holds together at 5:30AM 08/09/2004.

Dave


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wxman007
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18122 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:03 PM

Well Gentlemen and Ladies....this looks like it could be a fun week for those of us around the Gulf!

Ex-TD2 looking really good tonight, and in the catbirds seat for development. It will be very interesting to see what the global and regional models do with it on the 00Z and 06Z runs. NRL issuing a TC Formation Alert, so looks like we are going to have to watch it closely.

Coop, watch the 10...going to do some extended analysis on 91L (21L now)....

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Jason Kelley


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Anonymous
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Old Sailor]
      #18123 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:06 PM

Does anyone have a link to a radar down in Cancun :?:

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DroopGB31
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: wxman007]
      #18124 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:08 PM

Nice to hear from you again Jason. I agree, looks like a busy week for us all along the gulf. To bad I cant get your forecast in my area, I get all the local TV stations from Mobile. The main meterologist is always off Sunday nights so some fill in lady steps in for the tropical update and basically says the same thing everytime. LOL Well im looking forward to all your insight on this system. Have a great week.

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Frank P
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Anonymous]
      #18125 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:08 PM

http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm

but I can't get it to loop... maybe it just takes a long time and I'm to impatient to wait....


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wxman007
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: DroopGB31]
      #18126 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:10 PM

Normally, I wouldn't be in tonight, but my weekend guy is out of town and I volunteered to work anyway...from the way this looks tonight I would have had to come in anyway...

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Jason Kelley


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BillD
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Frank P]
      #18128 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:14 PM

It doesn't loop for me either. I've got a utility grabbing the image very 15 minutes, and then another that loops it for me. I hand built a loop image earlier, but it ended up about 2MB for only 10 images, too big to post anywhere.

Bill


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Frank P
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: wxman007]
      #18129 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:16 PM

Well Jason your expertise is an added value service to this board and I always look forward to your analysis and forecasts. Maybe we'll have a player in the GOM to monitor this week after all.... it needs to hold together over night and transition into the GOM with at least what it currently has going for it....

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Frank P
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: BillD]
      #18130 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:19 PM

thanks Bill, I was on storm2k earlier this evening and they were saying the cancun radar was extremely slow, but would eventually loop... I got tired of waiting on the download... I think it would be very telling if we could get the cancun radar to loop, with all that impressive convection it is currently showing....

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