James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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LOL! 
First Bonnie, and possibly in the next day or so. I thought things were supposed to be going quite for a couple of weeks!
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Wow!! exciting day around the tropics. This was posted earlier but for those who missed it and want a link to a models graphic try this:
models
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Hey LI Phil... I've eaten crow so many times I have a cook book available on how to serve it... grilled with pineapples is my favorite... a more tropical taste to celebrate the season... hehe
I think a little stewed rabbit would be apropos as well...
Edited by Frank P (Mon Aug 09 2004 08:57 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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What a gamer this system is...and it is still pretty unconventional...looks like movement is almost NNW now, and as for the system on the gulf coast I note that the moisture from that is being pulled into this new storm. Very small core of active convection..almost nothing north and east. But as we all know in the GOM things deepen fast.
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doug
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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offical forecast take it ashore as strong TS near Destin/Panama City ....Noon thurs.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Too far right in my opinion. I beleive a strike as a Cat 1 or 2 in the Biloxi to Ft Walton range (Ater crossing extreme SE LA.)
Edited by jth (Mon Aug 09 2004 08:57 PM)
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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As a 50kt tropical storm. The latest discussion raises the possibility that if the convection dissipates, the lower level wind field could easily spin down.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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And considering I'll most likely be squeezed between a landfalling Bonnie and a cold front, I give you the following:
My bonnie lies over the ocean
My bonnie lies over the sea
My bonnie lies over the ocean
Oh bring back my bonnie to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me, to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me
Last night as I lay on my pillow
Last night as I lay on my bed
Last night as I lay on my pillow
I dreamed that my bonnie was dead
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me, to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me
Oh blow ye the winds o'er the ocean
And blow ye the winds o'er the sea
Oh blow ye the winds o'er the ocean
And bring back my bonnie to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me, to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me
The winds have blown over the ocean
The winds have blown over the sea
The winds have blown over the ocean
And brought back my bonnie to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me, to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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I think a lot will depend on when the front comes thru. That is suppose to be what will curve it to the ne. also if the low developes off la/al like was mentioned earlier will that have an effect on its track?? reason would tell me that would keep it more west.
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Interesting to note that if this storm doesn't make hurricane status it would be the first storm named Bonnie not to do so.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Steve, LOL. Is your drink very strong yet?
I'll leave it up but you know Ed's taking it down.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Melbourne NWS showing some concern over TD #3:
FRI-MON...GLOBAL MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN...SHOWING ANOTHER UNUSALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE BUCKLING OF THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN. STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN ...WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH TWD THE GULF COAST AND
SERN STATES...AND VERY MOIST S-SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS FL THRU
FRI...THEN PERHAPS BACKING MORE TO SE BY THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. DIFF BTWN THIS TROUGH AND THE LAST IN THAT THE
DIGGING WILL OCCUR AROUND 85W AS OPPOSED TO ~75W BY ITS PREDECESSOR
...RESULTING IN STRONG ATLC RIDGE EAST OF THE ERN AND POSSIBLY
LITTLE WWD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROP PORTION OF THE RIDGE W OF FL.
T.D. #3...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO FEEL SOME WEAKNESS TO IT'S NORTH ONCE IT CROSSES 80W OR SO AND
START TO GAIN LATITUDE. TO WHAT EXTENT AND AT WHICH LONGITDUE THIS
OCCURS REMAIN TO BE SEEN - BUT BEING THIS IS A RATHER LARGE SYSTEM
...WE'LL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON ITS PROGRESS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
...REFER TO THE /TAFB PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL DISCUSSIONS. HAVE
BASICALLY KEPT 40 POPS WHICH GIVES US WIGGLE ROOM...ALONG WITH THE
CAVEAT THAT THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PARTICULAR
XTD FCST.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Awwww Ed, let Steve have his post... hehe....
I will break out the Crown tonight in celebration of our first 2004 GOM tropical storm.... I wouldn't mind seeing some tropical storm winds on the beach this week... not sure what if any affect it will have on the Biloxi area just yet... looks like it will go east of here and if so we won't get much from the system as it stands being so small... but at least we got something to track
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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i think he is wishing.... perfect storm, its enough to have to stay home from work on thursday maybe even friday and get that 4 day weekend..but doesn't do much other than rain
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Weather underground/UM wx is the fastest.
sc 
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bobbi
Unregistered
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regarding next track
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Steve took me up on the new challenge (see storm forum). This one calls for landfall and intensity. Go ahead and start guessin'
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Steve, LOL. Is your drink very strong yet? I'll leave it up but you know Ed's taking it down.
Nah, I'm still at work. Plus, I'm all out of booze (killed off that bottle last night). Ed can nuke it if he wants to but I think it's apropos considering Bonnie indeed lies over the ocean and sea from me.
Btw, 's presentation of 5pm data on Bonnie was sorely lacking - must be a computer glitch.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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There is a book called "Bonnie Prince Charlie"--seems perfect for this occassion.
NOTE: Bonnie could spin down as fast as it spun up, TD 3 had more staying power at this time.
sc
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Just read the discussion and found why is going below the recon obs with regard to wind speed. But they say that 56 kts winds were found at 1500ft, which would equate to 48 kts at the surface, does anyone know what formula they are using to calculate this, or how to determine SFC winds from the flight level winds that are given?
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