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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


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Re: ETA Model [Re: Clark]
      #18449 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:39 PM

latest eta model showing (TD#3)charley? just south of the central cuban coast on Fri. Models have seemed to trend more to the right with each model run., remains to be seen but this may be a concern for the Keys all the way up the Eastern GOM.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/eta/00/images/eta_slp_078l.gif


TG

Edited by Tropics Guy (Mon Aug 09 2004 11:42 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: going out on a limb here... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18451 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:02 AM

NHC storm movement directions are generally an average over a period of time and not necessarily the last leg of movement. Easiest way to track is with graph paper or a GPS.
here's a link for the graph paper. I prefer the 2mm with 10mm bold. A4 format.
http://www.incompetech.com/beta/plainGraphPaper/


Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 10 2004 12:07 AM)


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Colleen A.
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Bonnie & Her Fluctuations [Re: Rasvar]
      #18452 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:11 AM

LOL! I am calling them Bonnie and Clyde.

This is only my opinion but here it is anyway: Bonnie might not be big right now, but she's the only thing in the GOM right now, too. The water temperatures are high, and as far as I know, there's nothing out there to stop her from becoming a hurricane soon (within 12-24 hours).

She may be wobbling W, then WNW but the NHC is usually correct with their projections and they have a pretty good track record, despite the fact that we often disagree with them only to be proven wrong. Bonnie is probably reorganizing herself, therefore giving us fluctuations. But don't take it frame by frame. Look at the big picture and you'll get a better idea of the direction. Last year was the first time I depended on the NHC and it actually takes a lot of the stress out of it.

I was surprised to see the track doing almost a U-turn, especially considering the fact that I live just northeast of Tampa.

Can you imagine getting hit by a Cat 1 or 2 and then a Cat 2 or 3 in less then 10 days?? This will prove to be a very busy week here.

Peace dudes

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


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Re: Bonnie & Her Fluctuations [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18453 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:17 AM

Interesting times indeed!

I'm off to bed. We'll see what Bonnie offers in the morning. (and soon to be Charley)

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Bonnie & Her Fluctuations [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18454 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:18 AM

Recon scheduled departure is for 0430Z, 13 minutes from now. By 06Z we should have some good data.
BTW- the Bourbon St. storm is putting up some good T-storms in MS. Tops to 45,000 ft and moderate lightning.


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Colleen A.
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One More thing to Watch for: [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18455 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:23 AM

Another good indication of what the NHC is thinking is the "Strike Probabilities" that they put out with each updated advisory. For example, I believe that at 5pm Tampa Bay had a 6% strike probability between 5pm today and 5pm Thursday; at 11, it had a 9%. Of course, these are absolutely not set in stone, it just gives you an idea of what the models are putting out. Tomorrow TB could have a 2% chance.

My eyes hurt. See ya in the morning.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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bobbi
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Re: Bonnie & Her Fluctuations [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18456 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:27 AM

great posts tonight

i think every tropical weather nut anywhere was online or on the phone somewhere..

didnt log me in tonight, strange

anyway... my son called me to talk about it from NY, hes very very savy with weather, makes my head spin he thinks so fast..

lot of possibilities..
watching the ridge that charlie is under or eating thru..
watching water temps, so much hot water out there
so much potential

is charlie intensifying in the center tonight, gosh am i tired
will bonnie intensify or slip slide away?

exhausted from football and smiling and nothing anyone is going to do or say is going to change that
and.......

think charlie has potential to really rock our world
as for Bonnie... as Bryan said on the news tonight (norcross) well..wasnt what he said.. was the giggle in his voice but it is there.. small but there, lets see what they can all do

and coleen is right.. in the end.. pay attention to the NHC

joe gibbs is back
td2 is back
we are all back.. watching and waiting to see what happens in the morning

heard a rumor that SNONUT was back


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


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Re: Bonnie & Her Fluctuations [Re: bobbi]
      #18457 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:33 AM

Yep, just read SNONUTS new advisory on his site. Now I'm outta here for sure. Hard to get away.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Anonymous
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There already? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18458 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:36 AM

URNT11 KNHC 100417
97779 04174 30285 89700 56500 26010 5666/ /4593
RMK AF963 0402A BONNIE OB 01


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Clark
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Re: There already? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18459 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:38 AM

Not quite. That ob is at 28.5 N, 89.7 W - see the end of the third group and the start of the fourth group. They are in the northern GOM.

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Anonymous
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what will recon find? [Re: Clark]
      #18460 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:41 AM

anyone think they will find cat1 winds tonight?

what does everyone think they will find.....


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Clark
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Re: Bonnie & Her Fluctuations [Re: SirCane]
      #18462 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:44 AM

Reading the new SNONUT post on his site reminds me of the old days about 6 years ago on the AOL tropical boards...ah, those were the days!

It's what wasn't said at the end of the post that means everything with regards to T.D. #3, I think. Don't see any reason to question his thinking there at all.

I'm just glad everything's happening now, before classes start (and at the start of my vacation, no less) so that I can follow things like I am now. It's about time something happened, too. I'll see if I can't run by the met. dept. here tomorrow and see the latest FSU Superensemble forecast(s); they've recently stopped posting them to the web (password-protected), but they are now posted outside one of the labs on campus. Don't expect anything majorly different, but added perspective is always nice.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Anonymous
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water temps [Re: Anonymous]
      #18463 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:46 AM

Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA

1050cdt
water temp 87.1
air temp 83.8
dew 76.5
**heat index 93***
pres 30.00 in

bonnie must be lookin for a warm bathtub and she's found one!


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Hardcore
Unregistered




Re: Bonnie & Her Fluctuations [Re: Clark]
      #18465 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:05 AM

Quote:

Reading the new SNONUT post on his site reminds me of the old days about 6 years ago on the AOL tropical boards...ah, those were the days!

It's what wasn't said at the end of the post that means everything with regards to T.D. #3, I think. Don't see any reason to question his thinking there at all.

I'm just glad everything's happening now, before classes start (and at the start of my vacation, no less) so that I can follow things like I am now. It's about time something happened, too. I'll see if I can't run by the met. dept. here tomorrow and see the latest FSU Superensemble forecast(s); they've recently stopped posting them to the web (password-protected), but they are now posted outside one of the labs on campus. Don't expect anything majorly different, but added perspective is always nice.




I remember snownut and some of the others from more than 6 years ago . Seems like just yesterday that we were all on the aol boards.


http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Anonymous
Unregistered




looking ahead of storm? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18466 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:10 AM

URNT11 KNHC 100431
97779 04454 30263 90200 56600 99005 5656/ /4593
RMK AF963 0402A BONNIE OB 02

26.3 90.2


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Anonymous
Unregistered




almost there.... [Re: Anonymous]
      #18467 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:15 AM

URNT11 KNHC 100506
97779 05064 31249 90800 14400 99005 1817/ /2555
RMK AF963 0402A BONNIE OB 03


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joepub1
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Re: what will recon find? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18468 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:20 AM

Morning to all. Went to work yesterday afternoon, was having dinner a little after 5, checked the NHC on the cell phone, and wham!!! Two kids coming out to play on the first day of school ( here in JAX anyway).

But first a quote from Aug 4 storm forum by me about then TD2(have to toot my horn for the one and only time I might be right about something related to a TS/Cat?) :
a) I think it will survive, or come back to life after being downgraded.
b) The trough will become our friend, not our enemy, by doing us a favor and slowing this train down, but will not finish the job, leaving us
c) A weak, but getting ready to get it's act together, TS

I need to get this lucky on the stock market or poker or something

Bonnie is alive and well and being checked out at this time. Seems to be holding her own, but IMO more important in the long run, slowed down almost to a stop. Time is a bad thing to give a TS, because given enough they don't stay a TS for long. I don't think we'll see a huge blowup or anything, unless you think a strong Cat1 is a big thing. Size should increase as the front begins to pull it slowly N/NE. I just can't see a major headache just yet, but most of us didn't see Alex getting to his status either. Panhandle to Bend would be a first guess for me, but given enough time even a pure cross-FL trip is not out of the question. Not likely to happen though.

TD3 does look like it has found it's center. In fact, I'm thinking it should have a name, and by Charlie, I think we're going to remember it too. This one worries me a bit, because alot of things that need to come together to make it a major pain are in fact happening. It's going to be big, it's going to get pretty far west no matter what happens, and I have a plain bad feeling for this one. It's just in the right place at the right time; it's in my bones......but you won't find me calling it by any other storms name. This one is going to make a name for itself.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: almost there.... [Re: Anonymous]
      #18469 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:22 AM

In the last post the 14400 would indicate the aircraft is flying around 1000-1500 ft above the surface.
Air temp 18C and dew point 17C indicates high humidity, about 97%.


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mikeG
Unregistered




how she doin [Re: Anonymous]
      #18470 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:27 AM

looks like the storm (bonnie) in going through a phase now...could the center be exposed to the nw..... latest sat shot looks like low level is coming out under the storms.... but i could be seeing thinks....although i think she is trying to reorganize tonight.... may even weaken... or lose a few tsrms.... recon should be near storm now and may just find a compact center.... if so, i think it will be small.....

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Anonymous
Unregistered




think td3 is near TS [Re: mikeG]
      #18471 - Tue Aug 10 2004 01:53 AM

goes 12 IR @ 0515Z show very good structure.... actual center looks to be near the latest blow up of storms.....

check the pic


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