mikeG
Unregistered
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night time IR
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Pre-storm weather.
The bourbon st low dropped enough rain in the Keesler AFB area that one of the rivers (Wolf River) is at flood stage on wednesday. The flood warning was issued at 15z Tuesday.
got life jackets?
Now The Bad News
717 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST...
AT 715 PM CDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN HARRISON COUNTY AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN
JACKSON COUNT MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 MILES AN HOUR. DUE TO
SLOW MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER GULFPORT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 AND OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN
GULFPORT AND GAUTIER. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH 8 PM. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS UP TO
35 MILES AN HOUR AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 11 2004 12:44 AM)
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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
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bonnie looks intresting. But I really do not like what is going on with sir charles..... check this image out.....http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-bd-loop.html
I don't think this is looking good for us on the west central coast of florida. 
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Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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It's funny, but not five minutes ago I sent a PM to JK and I used the phrase "Sir Charles." (basketball fan?)
I, too, am not liking the possibilities. Moving at close to 25 mph, surviving the graveyard and STRENGTHENING! The entire GOM, and especially the FLA gulf coast better have their prep kits ready. Don't want to wishcast (quite the contrary) or storm monger, but this could have some serious consequences, and sooner rather than later.
If this puppy gets into the bathtub a/k/a the GOM, and slows down...yeesh.
It's still way to early, particularly when isn't even a hurricane (yet), but all y'all better have your kits ready and your car gassed up.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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OK Colleen, I know a shot at me when I see it!!! But this is dejavu all over again! Yes charles is getting his act together, but when and if does he turn. Closely observe the . He is not going to cross the eastern portion of Cuba. He actually may strike Jamaica, or at least skirt the north coast of the island. Let's see if he slows before Jamaica....but I doubt it. gives his forward speed, then say this general motion will continue for the next 24 hours.....that was 12 hours ago. Hard to say where he will end up. We will wait for another model run or two to get some validation on track concensus/divergence. Anyhow, I have to go off to fantasy football draft at 10:00!!! It's getting too late for me to be up at midnite! But I guess I'll be up anyhow!!!!!!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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sir charles
should be at or near cat 1 hurricane by next adv. Sat data shows good low level cir under storms... this one could clean out the graveyard in the nxt 24 hrs!
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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00Z Caribbean roundup-Nothing significant at this time.
Aruba reporting 1010mb and winds 080 at 17kts.
TNCA 110000Z 08017KT 9999 FEW018 SCT120 BKN350 29/25 Q1010
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mikeG
Unregistered
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA...COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY...WEAK SURFACE LOW & IN-PLACE MOISTURE...HAVE CONTINUED
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ON-GOING CONVECTION TO
PUSH EAST & GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS ENERGY PUSHES EAST. MODELS
CONTINUE SOME LIFT OVERNIGHT ACROSS CWA...& CURRENT FORECAST HAS
CHANCE POPS. SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT E-NE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH LYING OVER THE CWA. THEN THE INFLUENCE OF BONNIE WILL
SPREAD TROPICAL MOISTURE NE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES A BIT
FARTHER OVER THE SE U.S. & LIFTS BONNIE NE TOWARD N FL. PLENTY OF
ENERGY INDICATED IN THE MEAN FLOW...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WILL BE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL ALLOW FLOOD WATCH
TO EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE RE-ISSUED FOR ALL CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE INFLUENCE OF BONNIE'S RAIN AFFECT CWA. EXPECT HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
. COASTAL
FORECAST HAS SOME SWELLS INDICATED AT KPFN BUOY...SO WILL UP SEAS A
BIT FOR OVERNIGHT.
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Hardcore
Unregistered
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http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200403_5day.gif
Please do NOT place images in the main body of your message...use a URL
I know that it's early but I like the eastward shift
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
{Read the site usage rules...you are welcome to link to your website, but you may not "advertise"}
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 11 2004 01:05 AM)
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Alan
Unregistered
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The newest has Charlie entering Florida as a 115 mph storm in the Bradenton/Sarasota area and traveling to Jacksonville. This all happens in 78 hours.
Whoa.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Lots of interesting discussions around the web today. Bastardi weighed in with an evening post noting that Bonnie was indeed splitting. A piece of the energy was being left behind (ala the circulation to the SW) while the main energy seems to be revving up again. He also isn't giving up on his endgame for , though he acknowledged in post #2 that what the models and are up to is legit. I threw in the towel long before he did. In order for to have been a Mex/Tex threat, it would have had to slow down at some point so that the trof could pick up Bonnie and the ridge could redevelop (as in blocking high) over the Northern Gulf. With still blazing WNW around 25mph, that's probably not going to happen. I like the 's idea with a second East Gulf threat.
Hard to say about intensity. Bonnnie is a mystery. She had everything going for her, and as usual, is flaring up again. She's been a PM storm from even back in her TD #2 days. At some point, you'd think that feedback is actually going to ignite something (or else it doesn't). Charlie's been looking like a potential bad boy for a couple of days. He stuck out like a sore thumb when approaching the islands. He's of tropical origin as well. He could turn out to be a beautiful sight before all is said and done. One of these days my kids will be old enough to fend for themselves and I'll be PM'ing some of you no-good suckers for a road-trip party. As always, my door is open to any ers who need to blow out of town but don't want to go to West Virginia or northern Georgia.
Beginning tomorrow night, we could have what is a one in a million scenario - the possibility of 2 canes passing over the same general area within 72-96 hours. Ordiniarilly one is a TS and the other is a cane.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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EMS
Unregistered
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Dr. Lyons must've been half asleep when he tied his necktie today. I can't blame him - he's all excited about the tropics and I'm sure he was up all night.
Bonnie looks like she's dying. scares me living in W Central Florida. I know it's hard to trust 5 day forecasts, but all the models are tightly clustered. Question is how far it varies.
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Good Post Steve, Where do you think watches will be posted from? Shouldnt be to much longer before there issued. If Im under a Hurricane Watch in the morning Im staying home from school and football.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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when?
come on gang... you can do it?
when was the last time a storm was a perfect round ball expanding out... getting stronger so fast?
i want names
this is going to be a short post hank
keep seeing it cross cuba ..go thru keys, lower..at 11:30 angle whatever that is and slam into sw coast of florida, keep seeing it but every variation of degree of motion makes a big difference with this fast moving storm
simply speechless beyond that
look at track of japanese typhoon.. wild..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Weird...I just got the 11pm Bonnie Disco...anybody else get that already????
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Jason Kelley
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EMS
Unregistered
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I saw the same thing on WeatherUnderground. Perhaps they're focusing resources on - that discussion may take a while.
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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
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Odd to get a 2300 discussion at 2130. Many things could happen with Bonnie in this hour and a half.
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Go Boilermakers
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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WTNT42 KNHC 110132
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004
AN AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FROM 17 TO 23Z FOUND A MAXIMUM
WIND OF 43 KT AT 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL AND 1004 MB. ALSO SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SPUTTERING VERY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
THEREFORE THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND IS REDUCED FROM 45 KT TO 40 KT.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCDAT2.0408110132
36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.8N 86.7W 60 KT
This is due south of Eglin AFB-hundred miles or so.-edit
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 11 2004 01:45 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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You goof...did ya read my post? LOL...I said that I wanted to see more model runs before I believed that this is the track. I think we've worked together long enough to know that the is usually correct and pretty darned close to their tracks.
The one thing I don't see happening right now is being ripped to shreds.
Good luck on your Fantasy Football League. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Something for all to think about:
From the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council --
"Regional studies have quantified the potential impacts of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall in the region and have highlighted the major concerns for evacuation, shelter and recovery operations. These facts are summarize below:
2) Due to the bathymetry and the configuration of the Bay, the storm surge heights for the Tampa Bay region are significantly higher than the national average (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). Surge heights within Tampa Bay can exceed 25-30 feet in a major hurricane strike. (Isadore warnings as a Cat 2 were 8 - 10 feet surges above mean high tide levels)
5) Most of the residents in Tampa Bay live in hurricane vulnerable areas. Based upon the 1992 Evacuation Study Update, the numbers of persons which would evacuate in the following storm scenarios are:
Category 1 911,950
Category 2 1,096,560
Category 3 1,336,630
6) For a major hurricane threat, the shelter demand in the region is estimated between 275,000 - 290,000 persons. The region has the capacity to shelter 218,000 (category 3) and 190,000 (category 5) - a deficit of 57,000 - 98,000 spaces!
7) The clearance times for the Tampa Bay region range from 8 - 17 hours* depending upon the county and strength/track of the storm threat. For major hurricanes, the clearance times
exceed the 12 hours the National Hurricane Center seeks to provide "confident" lead time.
8) If the three counties to the south of Tampa Bay also evacuate, clearance times will increase from minimum of 7.8 hours (category 1) to a maximum of 42.6 hours (category 5).
http://www.tbrpc.org/srpp/Subjects/Emerprep.PDF
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