wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
940 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004
AN 11 PM TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
INADVERTENTLY TRANSMITTED A FEW MINUTES AGO. PLEASE DISREGARD THIS
DISCUSSION AND WAIT FOR THE PROPER TRANSMISSION AT 11 PM.
LAWRENCE
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Jason Kelley
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Mark my words.....we haven't seen the end of Bonnie. I think she's got something up her sleave sitting out there in the Gulf. Conditions are about to be ripe.... 
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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It was a mistake....
WTNT61 KNHC 110140
TCUAT
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
940 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004
AN 11 PM TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
INADVERTENTLY TRANSMITTED A FEW MINUTES AGO. PLEASE DISREGARD THIS
DISCUSSION AND WAIT FOR THE PROPER TRANSMISSION AT 11 PM.
LAWRENCE
WWWW
Bill
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Hardcore
Unregistered
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Quote:
Mark my words.....we haven't seen the end of Bonnie. I think she's got something up her sleave sitting out there in the Gulf. Conditions are about to be ripe....
I agree Sircane . I think that she will fire back up tomorrow when she enters the low shear zone.
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Maybe someone hit the "go" button a little too fast on the 11pm discussion for Bonnie. You got to admit, they have a lot on their hands. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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First Pete, and now repeat...LOL
Remember, JK is the fastest gun in the southeast
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Point of order....she is IN the low shear zone now...
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Jason Kelley
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
Remember, JK is the fastest gun in the southeast
"I'm your huckleberry...."
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Jason Kelley
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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ROFLOL......OOPS! Well, that's a first for the .
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Just looked at the TW Update. Bonnie looks life a golf ball, and looks like a baseball. A big baseball. It looks as though is making a W-NW track and unless he shifts dramatically to the right, he's not going to hit the mountains in Cuba. He may go OVER the northern end of Cuba but I think he'd have to start going NW to hit the middle.
Dr. Steve Lyons deserves more than 5 minutes on these two storms.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Soo, was the information wrong or just sent too early?
Colleen! Ya think we ought to check the batteries we bought in June?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Don't dismiss Bonnie...
Don't forget Chas.
The goofed?
It might not be so funny sunday, but, I may do a "week in review" list of posts that could be taken several different ways. Remember, I said it might not be funny Sunday. That's all I can say. Everyone in the GOM pay heed to the warnings/watches. This is serious.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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So Jason, Looking at Bonnie now Im not impressed and I really dont know what to think. I thought all she had to do was have a good blowup of storms and she'd expand and be in buisness. Guess I was wrong. What do you see happening with Bonnie Jason? Landfall between Destin and PCB still? Also, do you buy all the talk about all of a sudden being a Flordia West Coast problem? Everyone has jumped on it, and honestly I think its way too early, I'd wait to jump on something till thursday at the most. But models seem pretty intent with it so it may pan out to be bad news for Tampa. Your insight is much appreciated man. Keep up the awesome work.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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000
WTNT61 KNHC 110140
TCUAT
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
940 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004
AN 11 PM TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
INADVERTENTLY TRANSMITTED A FEW MINUTES AGO. PLEASE DISREGARD THIS
DISCUSSION AND WAIT FOR THE PROPER TRANSMISSION AT 11 PM.
LAWRENCE
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Just looked at the WV loops...you can see why Bonnie is being pushed to the north/north-east, she's almost being squeezed. Then I looked at the WV loops for Atlantic/Caribbean basin, and you can see why is moving WNW. Pretty cool.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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At this point, there isn't much to be impressed with with Bonnie...finally showing some signs of life with that small cluster of convection over the center, and diurnal effects should allow her to hold together overnight, but the clock is definately ticking on her. If this flareup isn't the one that kickstarts her, she likely won't make it as a distinct system, and would likely get caught up in the front and dissapate.
Charley? EVERYBODY from NO to the Keys needs to have their eyes open on this one. West Florida is historically slow to act, and this could be a problem for those folks if they don't take it seriously. THat said, if you live in Biloxi, be prepared...or Destin, or Cedar Key, or Ft Myers...at this point there is NO all clear from ...the forecast track right now is a low confidence one...treat it as such...
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Jason Kelley
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Per the 10pm conference call.....TS Watches up from Perdido Key (AL/FL border) 200 miles east to the mouth of the Suwanee River...
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Wed Aug 11 2004 02:18 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I have no clue whether the information that was sent out early was wrong or not. I have a feeling it will be pretty close to what they issued. We'll find out soon.
Yes, I would check your batteries. Last night I paid no attention to and gave Bonnie my undivided attention and today I'm doing careful observations of both storms. Timing is crucial and although Bonnie might not be a big storm, she has plenty of moisture. , of course, is the one I'm keeping a double eye on since he's closer to Florida than Bonnie.
Then you think of all the rivers in Hillsborough/Pinellas and other rivers that are at flood level and even if we just get by with a brush of /Bonnie, the city of Tampa may be the next floating city.
LI Phil...I wasn't trying to be flippant. I was just trying to figure out what happened. Maybe it was an intern, who knows. But I am very serious about both storms.
And I think that we will have Hurricane at 11pm.
Amen.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TNCA 110200Z 10021G31KT 9999 FEW018 SCT120 BKN350 29/24 Q1011
TNCA 110100Z 09020G30KT 9999 FEW018 SCT120 BKN350 29/24 Q1010
TNCC 110200Z 13018G29KT 090V150 9999 FEW018 BKN300 28/22 Q1014
TNCC 110100Z 12018G28KT 080V140 CAVOK 28/23 Q1013
TNCA is Aruba
TNCC is Curacao
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 11 2004 02:23 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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JK...know you're busy, just a quick question. How many more runs would make you more confident in the track given out at 5pm on ? Thanks!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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