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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Larry
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
Re: Here we go... [Re: wxman007]
      #18684 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:11 PM

Jason, thanks taking time to post during crunch time!

Phil has a very good point about being prepared. Alex caught a lot of people off guard on the NC outer banks by spinning up at the last moment!

Larry


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: 10 mile eye makes me wonder [Re: Clark]
      #18685 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:12 PM

Bonnie has left some stroms and is now exposed to the north, but in the last hr....new storms on nnw side are flaring up.... i have noticed too that the banding from low level looks better in last few hours.... looks like shear to north and east is starting to die off ..... i think we are about to see her explode to night.... something that has caught my eye, the "weak" front over northern gulf coast still has that low level swirl near mobile, which is enhancing shower activity near the panhandle, and i think it will have an effect on bonnie soon.... could it be that the north movement now played in part because of it? or the front got to gulf sooner?

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texasone
Registered User


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Posts: 2
Loc: Beaumont, TX
Re: Here we go... [Re: Larry]
      #18686 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:14 PM

Anyone think Texas could feel anything from these two storms?

--------------------
=======================================

I MAY LIVE IN TEXAS, BUT LOUISIANA IS MY HOME...GEAUX LSU TIGERS!


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Anonymous
Unregistered




recon [Re: mikeG]
      #18687 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:15 PM

URNT14 KNHC 102101
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01237 10916 12528 11816 30024
02239 20914 22524 21716 31027
03241 30912 32520 31816 31031
04242 40910 42512 41717 30029
05245 50908 52499 51917 31034
MF245 M0908 MF034
OBS 01 AT 2002Z
OBS 05 AT 2020Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 99005
01248 10904 12490 12018 14031
02249 20902 22510 21817 16022
03251 30900 32520 31716 15021
04253 40898 42525 41716 16022
05254 50896 52529 51616 17022
06256 60894 62531 61715 18018
07258 70892 72534 71716 19016
MF247 M0904 MF034
OBS 01 AT 2030Z
OBS 07 AT 2056Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 99005
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 18


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: GOES Rapid Scan [Re: wxman007]
      #18688 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:20 PM

New to the board, but it appears on the latest visible loop that perhaps the low level circulation of Bonnie is migrating slightly east of north while a mid level circulation? is departing to the west. Does anyone else see this or is this just a factor of shear blowing cloud tops to the west. It does appear though that there is circulation to the westward moving activity. Visible loop

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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Texasone [Re: texasone]
      #18689 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:22 PM

Welcome aboard!

>>> Anyone think Texas could feel anything from these two storms?

The models are trending against it, certainly not from Bonnie, but Charley is another story. Earlier this morning JB (Joe Bastardi, weather god from accuwx) was calling for a Texas hit with Charley. However, each and every model run has been trending Charley further and further east. The best advice is watch TWC, stay prepared, and make sure you have some hooch in your prep kit, as I learned earlier on today. Seriously, though, you probably don't have anything to worry about but Charley's still a long ways off...

BTW, I notice you live in Beaumont. Here's an excellent resource if you don't already have it:

Golden Triangle Weather

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 10 2004 05:31 PM)


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re:Bonnie [Re: Anonymous]
      #18690 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:27 PM

Yeah Anon, I've been watching the last couple of hours and trying to figure out whats going on with Bonnie. Recon would seem to indicate a slow drift off to the N or NNE, but visual sat loops seem to show either the circulation is elongated SW-NE or maybe that is a MLC southwest of the LLC which is plainly visible although it seems to be a little distorted in the last shot.

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Kevin
Weather Master


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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Charley track [Re: LI Phil]
      #18691 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:29 PM

Not saying that the current forecasting models will stick to their solutions, but the new NHC track REALLY opened my eyes here in C. Florida. A 100 mile per hour hurricane with a large circulation passing to the west would put the Central Florida Peninsula in a position for problems. Not trying to the jump the gun as the track could shift again very easily. Floridians really need to start paying attention to local weather reports if the track forecast from NHC persists during the next 24-36 hours.

The center did jump to the northwest today...from 14.5 at 2PM to 15.2 now. This jump could end up making the difference.


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ErinAndOpal95
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 10
Loc: Pensacola, Florida
Does Charlie have an eye starting? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18692 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:29 PM

It's startimg to get optical (an eye is forming)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/VIS/20.jpg


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Charley track [Re: Kevin]
      #18693 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:31 PM

That would be north Kevin.

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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 90
Re: 10 mile eye makes me wonder [Re: mikeG]
      #18694 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:31 PM

I entirely forgot about the low here in Mobile, and the effects it will have on Bonnie. Is there any reason for me to be concerned that this has a chance of coming this way?...most are thinking even more of an eastern shift...bringing Bonnie inland 150 miles or so east of me.

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teal61
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
Re:Bonnie [Re: Anonymous]
      #18695 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:32 PM

When you look at this loop..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

Bonnie looks like shes rapidly going poof. Looks can be deceiving though guess we will see what happens tonight.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: GOES Rapid Scan [Re: Anonymous]
      #18696 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:33 PM

maybe a nne jog or swirl. mid and upper from this morning is fading and drifting to sw.... something of note. All day winds off southern LA were around (from) 260 and light, in last few hrs, they appear and waiting on bouy data to confirm have changed to ne. This flow is far from center, but could mean weaker low level direction shear ahead of storrm....upper level winds are somewhat screaming to east.... this could weaken bonnie overnight, but with 87 water temp and darkness approaching is usually when shear dies off, which i think could bring her back to life.....

also in latest sat shot ..... strms are coming back on south side of her center


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Charley track [Re: Kevin]
      #18697 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:34 PM

Hey guys,
Kevin, i noticed the potential problems for the Florida west coast too. With Bonnie expected to landfall in two days somewhere along the upper west coast or panhandle, Charley could be making an appearance in the same general area at the end of the weekend. Certainly something that anyone in that area should watch closely.

Its surprising that, when you look at the sat pics, Bonnie looks really nothing much, and Charley looks like he's the man. Yet, Bonnie is still the stronger of the two!

Anyways, just my thoughts

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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texasone
Registered User


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Posts: 2
Loc: Beaumont, TX
Re: Texasone [Re: LI Phil]
      #18698 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:34 PM

Thanks for the warm welcome LI Phil! If I've learned anything living on the coast, it's "don't count your chickens..."! All I can say is I'll be prepared here in Beaumont.

--------------------
=======================================

I MAY LIVE IN TEXAS, BUT LOUISIANA IS MY HOME...GEAUX LSU TIGERS!


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James88
Weather Master


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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Texasone [Re: texasone]
      #18699 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:38 PM

Check out the intense convection firing up near the centre of Charley. He seems to be slowly pulling himself together.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re:Bonnie [Re: teal61]
      #18700 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:45 PM

URNT11 KNHC 102136
97779 21364 31260 91910 15200 02013 18169 /2525 49905
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 19


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re:Bonnie [Re: Anonymous]
      #18701 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:47 PM

pretty neat lookin.... doesn't appear to be nothin


cool NRL shot


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Charley track [Re: Rich B]
      #18702 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:50 PM

URNT12 KNHC 102122
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2122Z
B. 15 DEG 16 MIN N
70 DEG 58 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 140 DEG 020 NM
F. 189 DEG 40 KT
G. 142 DEG 014 NM
H. EXTRAP 999 MB
I. 25 C/ 332 M
J. 25 C/ 326 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 /01
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF966 0103A Charley OB 20
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 2117Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Loc:
TWC coverage [Re: James88]
      #18703 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:51 PM

According to my friend at The Weather Channel, they are only sending Jim Cantore to Bonnie. He'll be in Panama City later today. They may send others out down the line, but for now, Jim's the guy.

So, as the joke here at work went today, go about 100mi away from PC and you have the landfall spot! In all seriousness though, somewhere +/- 25mi from Panama City is looking like a fairly good bet right now. Intensity is another factor entirely, however.

Of note on the latest visible satellite imagery - if only we had it for another 6 hours today! - is that the center looks to be reforming significantly further to the SW, somewhere near 23.5/91.5. It could be an illusion from a mid-level swirl, but I think the LLC is reforming there, under the deep convection, as well.

Give it about 6-12 hr to play out and let's see what happens.

Charley looks like he's trying to consolidate, but the forward speed keeps hampering things. Slow it down to 20mph and it gets it's act together quickly; keep it at this rate and it'll take some time. Don't see any reason to argue with the NHC forecast, position or intensity wise, this far out.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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