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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Charley track [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18704 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:51 PM

H. EXTRAP 999 MB/?????

could be stronger? but winds looks weak.... some weird stuff


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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
Re: Here we go... [Re: jth]
      #18705 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:52 PM

Quote:

The outflow boundaries mentioned earlier for Charley are actually a good thing. these originated from the preceeding band of thunderstorms that may have been inhibiting development of a true CDO.




You seem to be right about Charley; it is becomming more circular in appearance and the shear from earlier is now replaced with good upper-air divergence for the most part, and there is just another 24 hours until it is out of the "graveyard" and I can not really find anything that was not related to a front (such as TD10 in 1994) that has dissipated in the western Caribbean north of 15 degrees.
Charley vis

--------------------
forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: TWC coverage [Re: Clark]
      #18706 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:54 PM

Clark, thanks for the info...

>>> According to my friend at The Weather Channel, they are only sending Jim Cantore to Bonnie. He'll be in Panama City later today. They may send others out down the line, but for now, Jim's the guy.

So, as the joke here at work went today, go about 100mi away from PC and you have the landfall spot! In all seriousness though, somewhere +/- 25mi from Panama City is looking like a fairly good bet right now. Intensity is another factor entirely, however.

Except for Floyd in '99. He was Florida's SHIELD then. O'course he came up to LI and sent Floyd to me.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 10 2004 05:55 PM)


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: Here we go... [Re: texasone]
      #18707 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:57 PM

According to the latest track I doubt it.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Here we go... [Re: BugsBunny]
      #18708 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:58 PM

I'm thinking that Charley's track will be significantly left of the NHC's forecast; I've noticed that track biases tend to be consistent. In that case, in the most radical extreme it may miss FL altogether. In any event, I think land interaction will prevent it from becoming a major hurricane for the near term.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Here we go... [Re: Anonymous]
      #18710 - Tue Aug 10 2004 06:05 PM

URNT11 KNHC 102153
97779 21534 30165 69700 03700 11021 24228 /0010 41025
RMK AF966 0103A Charley OB 21


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Here we go... [Re: Anonymous]
      #18711 - Tue Aug 10 2004 06:08 PM

URNT14 KNHC 102158
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01142 10699 10009 12623 14031
02144 20701 20009 22623 14039
03145 30703 30008 32523 15037
04147 40705 40007 42523 16037
05149 50707 50006 52423 17030
06151 60708 60004 62423 20036
MF151 M0708 MF040
OBS 01 AT 2057Z
OBS 06 AT 2117Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 13025
01155 10708 10005 12323 12060
02156 20706 20008 22322 11046
03158 30704 30009 32321 12039
04160 40702 40009 42521 11032
05162 50701 50010 52521 12026
06163 60699 60010 62422 11021
07165 70697 70010 72422 12023
MF154 M0709 MF072
OBS 01 AT 2127Z
OBS 07 AT 2153Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 10025
RMK AF966 0103A Charley OB 22


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Other Tropical Disturbances [Re: Anonymous]
      #18712 - Tue Aug 10 2004 06:11 PM

Hi. First-time poster. Though I'd jump in with a question. Does anyone see any promise for development in the various tropical waves that have moved off Africa in the last few days?

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Anonymous
Unregistered




PRESIDENT N PANHANDLE pc [Re: Anonymous]
      #18713 - Tue Aug 10 2004 06:19 PM

just a note. President Bush is now in Panama City Fl.... he just arrived via bus from Destin..... Tyn AFB is a hurrcane status 4

oh yeah looks like bonnie is on her way!


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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: Does Charlie have an eye starting? [Re: ErinAndOpal95]
      #18714 - Tue Aug 10 2004 06:26 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_03L.CHARLEY_ssmi_ir1km_full.html

yeah...thats the biggest "oh my gosh" ive had all day

came back from dinner with thoughts that Charley was ill and seems he is exploding.. doing well.. wow..

wish the planes were in there now, don't ya?


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Does Charlie have an eye starting? [Re: bobbi]
      #18715 - Tue Aug 10 2004 06:32 PM

URNT11 KNHC 102224
97779 22244 30167 67708 58500 13023 57603 /4588
RMK AF966 0103A Charley OB 23


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Anonymous
Unregistered




bring bacck bonnie [Re: Anonymous]
      #18716 - Tue Aug 10 2004 06:37 PM

URNT12 KNHC 102217
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2217Z
B. 24 DEG 42 MIN N
90 DEG 30 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1454 M
D. 25 KT
E. 322 DEG 16 NM
F. 051 DEG 32 KT
G. 323 DEG 013 NM
H. 1004 MB
I. 19 C/ 1524 M
J. 24 C/ 1521 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 20
MAX FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 1842Z.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: bring bacck bonnie [Re: Anonymous]
      #18718 - Tue Aug 10 2004 06:52 PM

URNT11 KNHC 102239
97779 22394 30238 89500 15300 23014 17128 /2526 49905
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 23



URNT11 KNHC 102244
97779 22444 30172 66100 58400 07010 58692 /4590
RMK AF966 0103A Charley OB 24. LAS REPORT


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LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: bring bacck bonnie [Re: Anonymous]
      #18720 - Tue Aug 10 2004 07:00 PM

Be careful what you wish for.

Bonnie may be nothing compared to Charley. And that's not good. Huge flareup just occurring with Charley, usually a sign of strengthening (OK, so I got that from TWC). Still, not a good sign. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hurricane Charley within 24 hours...then again, I like my crow the same way as frank p.

I've gained 20 pounds this hurricane season on the anti-Atkins crow diet.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: PRESIDENT N PANHANDLE pc [Re: Anonymous]
      #18721 - Tue Aug 10 2004 07:01 PM

I saw the President here in Pensacola today. It was awesome!

As for Bonnie, I think we're in for a surprise with her. As the shear continues to die down, I think we'll see some strengthening and expanding of Bonnie!

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Bush and Bonnie... [Re: SirCane]
      #18722 - Tue Aug 10 2004 07:14 PM

Pres is speaking right now at the PC Marina....

Bonnie is a ball of contradictions...pressures are pretty low, structures are pretty good, but convection can't stay sustained for very long. It looks like it could collapse at any point, and it at the same time looks like it could deepen rapidly at any point as well.

This one is keeping us on our toes.

I've been sort of myopic on Bonnie, cause it is the more immediate threat. If Charlie would slow down, Katy Bar the Door....but at this rate of speed it is rather impressive that it has developed as much as it has. The more eastward track (or more correctly that the NHC bit on it) isn't something that I would cling onto just yet....wait for the Gulfstream 4 data and we will get a much better picture of what is going on.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Preparations - West Coast Florida Lag [Re: SirCane]
      #18723 - Tue Aug 10 2004 07:20 PM

A few have posted about the potential for damages along the west coast of Florida if a Cat 2 or larger hit and they are highly accurate. Not only does this area not have any experience with significant storms, most are recent transplants and have absolutely no clue.

Interestingly, few are taking any early precautions here. Home Depot closest to the beach was almost empty this eve as I went in to grab 50 bags of sand and 100 sand bags from the brand new display. Sure, might be early - but if nothing else, my child ends up with a sandbox to die for with the plywood, sand, and 2x6's I purchased if nothing happens.

Since I have weathered 2 storms here over the last 30 years, I realize few will make any moves until it is too late. And, that is why the potential for damage in this area will be so severe.

I urge folks from Ft. Meyers north to start thinking pro-actively about securing your property. Sure, in 3 days anything can happen.. but if it doesn't change and we see only 100 mph winds here, there will be much flooding and wind damage.. much, much more than folks think. These 50's homes (that mostly sit at 3 1/2' above sea level) haven't seen 100 mph winds since the 70's when many roofs were laying in the bay.

Here is to early prep (picking up a Corona knowing I am ready)!

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Tue Aug 10 2004 07:26 PM)


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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
Re: Does Charlie have an eye starting? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18724 - Tue Aug 10 2004 07:22 PM

The last three images on the GOES 12 IR show the CDO forming a round formation, moving NNW and showing signs of strength. Stock up on the beverages in Florida. Jamaica vacations may about to be ruined being next in line.

--------------------
Go Boilermakers


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: Bush and Bonnie... [Re: wxman007]
      #18725 - Tue Aug 10 2004 07:22 PM

when do you expect to see the gulfstream data Jason (or any other data that could significantly change predictions)?

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Bush and Bonnie... [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #18726 - Tue Aug 10 2004 07:24 PM

I think a G-4 flight is scheduled for tomorrow, but I haven't had a lot of time to look....

ADDED: Now I have...for Tomorrow..

FLIGHT THREE -ADDED
A. 12/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0503A Charley
C. 12/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 43,000 TO 45,000 FT


--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Tue Aug 10 2004 07:26 PM)


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