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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Hurricane Watches Up In Florida for Bonnie and Charley
      #18948 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:31 PM

11:15PM Update
Bonnie has weakened a bit, with a front near and with a bit of shear, this should keep it in check while it moves toward the coast. It still has another window to strengthen a bit, but it's very small.

Charley's track is still on from what we said earlier. Up the west coast of Florida South of Tampa (Most Likely between Cedar Key and Sarasota) into the peninsula and out the east side somewhere between Cape Canaveral and Jacksonville.

The big question is how Cuba and the other islands will affect the storm and how intense it will be when it gets near. The track is still not 100% in stone, of course, but I don't see any compelling trends or reasons to doubt the NHC's track at the moment.

Snonut also has some updates tonight

4:50PM Update
Hurricane Warnings up for Panhandle from Destin to the mouth of the Suwannee River for Bonnie.

4:45PM Update
Hurricane watch now in effect for the Southwest Coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach for Charley.

There is a mandatory evacuation for visitors and non-residents of the Florida Keys.

Governor Jeb Bush has also declared a state of emergency for florida, which activates a lot of Florida Emergency Management offices in preperation for possibly two storms making landfall over the next few days.

2PM Update
Bonnie up to 65MPH,
Charley now a Hurricane, still projected to impact the west coast of Florida on Friday. Watches will likely be up for more of the west coast of Florida later.

Lots to watch!

Apologies for the Downtime from appox 12:17PM to 2PM today, was a routing failure with our ISP and not the system itself. (Murphy's law)

Original Update
Today, both are still Tropical Storms, Bonnie has strengthened a bit and the track still takes it toward the Panhandle. Charley is nearing Jamaica and right now the track takes it over western Cuba and through the peninsula of Florida.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up for parts of the Panhandle and Alabama, and Hurricane Watches are up for the Panhandle to the big bend area. Hurricane Watches for Charley are up for the Florida Keys, and these watches may creep northward along the west coast later.

Therefore variations in track are paramount right now, and intensity of either system is going to be Critical. I do think those on the west coast of Florida will want to do some preliminary preperations and thinking.

I'm flying back down to Central Florida tomorrow and hopefully can update from there.



Updates will come as we get them.

Event Related Links
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up In Florida Bonnie and Charley [Re: MikeC]
      #18949 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:36 PM

Looks like Bonnie is trying to give it all she has before arriving.... we just might see a Cat 1... might I say.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Jamiewx
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NWS Melbourne on weather radio now [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18953 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:38 PM

Dennis Decker is on NOAA weather radio now, with details

here is a live link to Daytona Transmitter

http://www.realacom.com/NWSDAB.asx

doesn't seem to have audio, but i did a minute ago, if anyone has a weather radio and listens to the Orlando, Daytona, Melbourne or Ft Peirce transmitters shoud listen in.

Broadcast ended now, Met in Charge and Warning coordination met, talking about impacts of Charley, saying it will likely impact most of the state, regardless of where on the coast it makes landfall, also talked of Tornado threat, and they will be calling NHC tomorrow and getting more specific. Tune in again tomorrow about 11:30am for another live broadcast.

Edited by Jamiewx (Wed Aug 11 2004 03:52 PM)


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Frank P
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Bouy cranking up [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18954 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:38 PM

42001
Wind Speed (WSPD): 48.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 58.3 kts

and that's ON THE SURFACE gang... or perhaps maybe 20 above it... close enough to tell me I have some pretty strong winds


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Anonymous
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Re: Bouy cranking up [Re: Frank P]
      #18962 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:51 PM

I'm about to head to Home Depot in a bit to get a some globes for my ceiling fan. It will be interesting to see what's going on. Bonnie is getting very interesting!

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jth
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Joe B's Comments [Re: Anonymous]
      #18966 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:54 PM

Can someone give a synopsis of what Joe B has to say regarding these systems. He was fairly much dead on regarding Alex.

Also, I find it troubleing that the SE tip of LA is in the 50% strike possibility range according to the NHC and they don't have some kind of warning up. I wouldn't want to play those odds.

Models continue to trend west with both systems. I beleive the NHC is in denial regarding Charley. He will be in the central GOM.


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SirCane
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Re: Bouy cranking up [Re: Anonymous]
      #18968 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:56 PM

This last post was me. My bad.

I was wondering the same thing. Why don't they AT LEAST have watches up from Mississippi to Alabama?

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LI Phil
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Re: Joe B's Comments [Re: jth]
      #18970 - Wed Aug 11 2004 03:58 PM

Bonnie: sub 990 mb hurricane making landfall tomorrow on the coast and now I can make it in between Apalachicola and Pensacola.

Charley: it looks to me that we have a strong category 2 and perhaps a 3 making landfall Friday, but the exact spot is tough to call. The area between Cedar Key and Apalachicola is the Gulf equal to the no mans land around Jacksonville for the Atlantic.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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Jamiewx
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Models [Re: LI Phil]
      #18973 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:02 PM

Unless this is an old run, only a few models are trending west, these will probably come into agreement with others on later runs.

Models


NWS Melbourne has probably seen them, as they only just made a LIVE broadcast, but they made no comment on any track changes, guess they will not be second guessing NHC


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Steve hirschb.
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Re: Bouy cranking up [Re: SirCane]
      #18974 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:02 PM

Maybe Jason knows this: HAs the NHC seen the 12Z tropical and global models at this point (11 am advisory)??????? This is important, because if it results in moving the track west into the GOM, then they are getting people spun up for nothing, as they would have more time to alert residents of the panhandle area. Anyone have the real answer here. Are they going off old data? RSVP!

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Bouy cranking up [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #18977 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:06 PM

Normally the 11 AM forecast is done off the 12Z info.. NHC normally sees the globals before we do.. At least that is my understanding .. am I wrong ?

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rickonboat
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lag time from real track to public info [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #18978 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:08 PM

I find it somewhat interesting that the lag time from what the hurricanes and tropical storms to the public can be 4 hours old. or more. I say this because it's obvious to me that the projections of these storms paths, and the obvious trend west...will be a delay. I don't think it's any suprise that our info and thoughts are running about 2-3 hours or more, Ahead of what the public finally gets.

they both look more west to me. In fact, I would consider it almost irresponsible to be telling the public of forecast positions beyond 2-3 days....things change quickly....


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James88
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Re: Bouy cranking up [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #18979 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:08 PM

Am I seeing things or is that a faint eye becoming visible just south of Jamaica?

An eye?


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Steve
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Re: Bouy cranking up [Re: James88]
      #18980 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:10 PM

Finally got to read the whole (last) thread. The Publix and Winn Dixie jokes were great. Nice to see some humor in an otherwise precarious situation. We all have our ways of dealing with crisises (crises?).

Both storms are pretty fascinating today. Bonnie looks her best yet and Charlie is just plodding along. He's slowed down to 16 at the 11am advisory and is heading WNW. TPC sees the same essential endgame with the system.

We've got a once in a lifetime situation where there's a shot at two storms (possibly both hurricanes) affecting the same area within a day and a half of each other (by that, I mean NC Florida, Southern GA, etc.). Check out some of the surface charts for the 6 and 12 hour precip totals all the way up the east coast. This is a way to get some heat up there. For anyone who's staying behind, ice up that beer and get ready. Effects in the Panhandle should start within 24 hours. Additionally, Fort Walton got like 6.5" of rain yesterday (Valparaiso per TWC), and more is on the way. I'm hoping to see some peripheral effects here in New Orleans. Today 's air had a different feel to it. You can sense the closeness of a tropical system - muggy but not unbearable; warm, but not hot. Usually a storm won't drag in a cold front until mid or late October (ref. Juan 1985). But the summer of 2004 is a new animal. This will be the 3rd cold front in as many weeks (highs progged at 86 and sunny by Friday). Most of the time a landfalling storm in August along the panhandle will bring in some of that hot upper-90's Texas air. Not this time. Maybe we'll sneak in a band or two between the front and Bonnie.

As for Charley, it's still too early to guess how strong he could get. He's had the looks all along like he'd be a major storm. Had his motion slowed down and he was able to get into the SC Gulf, he could have easily achieved Cat IV. I don't think he goes that high curving up the West Coast of FL, but a 2 or even possibly a 3 isn't out of the realm of possibility. Y'all pay attention to what your local weather service advises, especially if Charley cranks.

Down the road, there's a swirl due east of the NC Coast around 70/35 that appears to be at the mid levels. Then Bastardi is talking about the ridge building behind the storms, and a piece of energy in the Central Atlantic with a shot to influence the western gulf late next week. After that, the lid pops for the Cape Verde season. Hopefully with the eastern early season, this won't mean everything else is fish spinners or BOC NE hybrids.

Looking forward to tons of photos from close in on the action. Too many of you live between Escambia and Bay Counties and also in the greater Tampa Bay area. If you register, you can attach digital photos to your posts. Don't be stingy with the uploads. Everyone's got a digital camera these days.

Steve

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Colleen A.
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Re: Bouy cranking up [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #18981 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:12 PM

No, you're correct. But the track has not changed dramatically to the west; the models are not predicting a large shift to the west, nor is the NHC. Notice that only the western part of Cuba has watches/warnings up.

As for Bonnie, the thinking now is she might just get shoved more E/NE than NE.

I'm sorry Steve, I just don't see what you're seeing. This track has been the same (or slightly more east or west) for almost 3 advisories, and the NHC is pretty darned good at calling these landfalling areas.

I think everyone should read the Hazardous Weather Statement for West Central Florida. I think it will tell you a lot, and that was the 8:00am statement.

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wxman007
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NHC Thinking... [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #18982 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:14 PM

I can say for sure that NHC has seen the 12Z globals and track models...but the difference, while it does exist, isn't enough to cause a change in forecast thinking or track. Folks in the Panhandle and aware for either or both storms, judging from what I have seen. It is a less daunting to evacuate the Panhandle area than the Tampa area...I think the NHC is making an entirely proper call here. There is nothing YET (emphasis on YET) that would have me move the track in any direction. When we get the 18 and especially the 00Z runs, then we look long and hard at it.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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jth
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Eye [Re: James88]
      #18983 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:15 PM

You're not just seeing things. I have noticed that and that it will pass well south of Jamaica.

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Cocoa Beach
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I think where going to be ok... [Re: Steve]
      #18984 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:16 PM

I just was watching TWC, it shows Charlies track taking a dip to the SOUTH and WEST, if this continues than old JOe B
may be right after all.

...CHARELY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HAITI BE DISCONTINUED.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
CHARLEY IS CENTERED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM Charley WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT
110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. Charley IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TODAY...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: I think where going to be ok... [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #18985 - Wed Aug 11 2004 06:04 PM

Sorry folks for the downtime, upstream provider had router issues.

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James88
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Re: I think where going to be ok... [Re: MikeC]
      #18986 - Wed Aug 11 2004 06:06 PM

I see that Charley is now a hurricane.

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