MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Quote:
jth,
That is bizarre, but the post is gone! Maybe Mike nuked it, but I only grabbed two-three sentences from his entire post. Here's what I put up:
>>>I hold with the idea of a sub 990 mb hurricane making landfall tomorrow on the coast and now I can make it in between Apalachicola and Pensacola (Bonnie)
>>>For now, it looks to me that we have a strong category 2 and perhaps a 3 making landfall Friday, but the exact spot is tough to call. The area between Cedar Key and Apalachicola is the Gulf equal to the no mans land around Jacksonville for the Atlantic. (Charley)
Didn't nuke it but did work on some site things around that time. Trying to fix issues that pop up in high traffic. So something may have happened there. not intentional
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Some interesting developments:
The TPC's 5:00 track makes a dual landfalling system, the second just north of St. Helena Sound in Charleston County. Interesting development for HankFrank.
As to the "Bastardi Family" trying to make this a gulf storm, no go. He gave up on that this morning. However, the 12Z runs are out and they have off the coast of Galveston next Wed. I certainly don't agree with this scenario (especially since it appears to form him out of mid-air), but it's food for thought. Maybe some post frontal low or something....
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
I think hat Bonnie could make it to Hurricane intensity, especially based on the small but persistent feature. With little time for the shear to have much impact before landfall i think we will see her go in as a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 - 80 mph.
Charley is lashing Jamaica at the moment, but the Caymans look set to bear much worse. Of course, after Cuba, it looks like Florida could get another round, but from a far more potent storm system.
However, both of these Tropical Cyclones are potentially very dangerous!
--------------------
Rich B
SkyWarn UK
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Hey Rick on Boat,
Check out this new run of the 18Z models on . Heh.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v207/xtony25/03LMDL01.gif
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
|
|
Bonnie
The rotation of the eye has now made an appearance on the long range radar out of New Orleans.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml
--------------------
Go Boilermakers
|
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
|
|
According to one of our local forecasters, Florida has NEVER had 2 landfalling storms within 48 hours of one another.
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
So he doesn't want to sayno to Florida west coast, but has his doubts given the lack of climatological support. I would agree. Also, the 18Z runs are even further west with .
|
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
|
|
I'm sure you already know.
Also Patrick Airforce base and Nasa has issued a Hurricon level 4. The are tieing down the Atlas Rockets as we speak.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
I do beleive has gone back west again. This is going to be a long week and weekend. I don't but a Friday landfall. More like Sunday on the No Central Gulf coast.
|
Stormtker
Unregistered
|
|
Just watched Channel 9 in Orlando and the track literally goes right over my house as a Cat 2 storm sometime Friday night. One of the wx people were wishcasting it farther West.
I'd guess that 90 percent of the population in this part of the State has never experienced a hurricane and are not prepared at all.
I watched the Westward movement of today but the last couple of hours it seems to have resumed the WNW to NW track and is slowing a bit which indicates both possible strenghening and a turn.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Not wishcasting at all. All of the new models are taking to the Panhandle or even further west..
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Quote:
I do beleive has gone back west again. This is going to be a long week and weekend. I don't but a Friday landfall. More like Sunday on the No Central Gulf coast.
Curious, but which models are you looking at?
18Z , , avn as well as the superesemble trend it south of Tampa, only a few like the BAMM , clipper, and other baroclinic models trend it further west (and only a few of that) Majority still point to a west coast florida landfall right now, and especially has trended more abrupt of a recurve.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
check out Steves post earlier in the thread.
|
DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
|
|
Your right about the models shifting west the last run, well some of the models, not all. But anyways, before you get to concerned and start asking tons of questions, just watch for a trend. Be prepared also. Originaly yesterday morning, the 's track for was right up the Yuc. Channel and straight towards the Central GOM. I dont know what happened to cause such a drastic change, but I feel it could change again. And thats quite possible, so just watch and see how the models trend, should have a better idea later tonight when the NOAA Gulfstream data gets ingested into the models. So all I can say is be prepared and watch closely my friend. Also, why dont you anon posters sign up? It gets annoying trying to figure out who's who and such.
|
DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
|
|
No offense or nothing Anon, but havent you realized that the is usually crap, as every run is different. I never use it to forecast a storm, only when I need an occasional laugh. Usually the intensity is way off, not to mention the track changes every new run. Very inconsistent IMO. I remember a few yearsago it showed a Cat 4/5 making landfall in Jacksonville, and moving parallel to I-10 all the way to Mobile I think, While maintaining its Cat 4 strength. LOL Gave me a good laugh.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Quote:
check out Steves post earlier in the thread.
Those are the baroclinical models, I'm not sure they are the best for trying to project a storm path. Sometimes they can indicated trends, but more often than not can be discounted.
Along with steve's hurricane alley link, you may want to check these
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LMDL02.html
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LMDL03.html
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LMDL04.html
In other words, not quite enough for me to say there is a trend west yet. Some models weigh higher than others for me.
|
k___g
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
|
|
We are getting ready here in Orlando...looks like it could be an interesting weekend!!!
|
DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
|
|
Anybody decides me think Bonnie is moving more to the NE then she was earlier? I was surprised to see her move so far west today. She almost seemed to jump over the 90 degree line. Im still gonna go with what I've been saying Landfall between Pensacola and PCB. More specifically probably between PCB and Destin. Now Im gonna go watch loops all night, looking for possible jogs to the N! LOL
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
I just wanted to take a moment to not only thank the bros. Cornelius for making this forum available to us, but also to Mike, who, through his sheer computer genius, has found a way to filter out dozens of anon posters who were on the board not for hurricane knowledge, but through the wiles of some search-bot type of thingy. You may have noticed how much quicker everything loads now. Mike, you da man.
As far as anon's IDing themselves...probably not gonna happen unless Mike turns the boards to registered user posting only, and he doesn't like to do that.
So, to all you anon's out there, you can still post anonymously, but at least come up with some kind of handle so as to differentiate yourselves. Mods can see your IP address, but no one else can, so it gets very confusing for the members...and as things start to get crazy, anon's who start making chuck & duck posts will have them removed pronto.
You guys have been excellent today! Keep up the great posting.
And thanks again, Mike, for keeping everything running smoothly!!!
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
For those of you who are constantly hitting the GHCC site for updated loops, you might want to try this piece of software.
GHCCSat
This Windows app grabs whatever you want from the GHCC servers automatically on a timed schedule...you can set up multiple loops or whatever you want...and it is free.
It has been really handy in the office today...
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
