danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Large bow echo racing SE across SW LA. Will this give Bonnie a shove to the east?
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joepub1
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Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Just spent well over an hour reading all the great posts since I left for work late this morning. Great job to all and esp. Mike, Ed, LI Phil, HankFrank, and anyone I missed for keeping the site up and running.
Those who keep late hours here know I'll be up till 3ish, so this post will be quickly thought out....
I'll give Bonnie one more shot at Cat1. It's going to be close, but gut feeling is just short. I should feel some effects from her tomorrow night, if she doesn't kick off some storms ahead of her arrival (which I think she will). Bonnie riding along a front should have a tail to the S/SE and I would fall well within it unless she just dies a overland, dry death. Just the warm-up act for us in Jax.
IF follows the path from the , and I think there as close as they can get at this point, Friday night/ Sat. morning will be kind of a rush. He would exit just ( I live in southern Duval) south of me, and I mean the margin of error is just so tiny. I could have a full-blown TS over my rear end trying to get home from work. Don't get me wrong, please do everything you need to do to be safe, I know I am. But in our(my) strange little way, this is why some (most?) of us track these storms, because we want to feel the effect of mother nature when she takes over for a bit. I'm one who doesn't avoid these things unless they are going to be a clear-cut stupid place to be.
I hope everyone on the SW FL coast through Orlando and up the east coast just does the right thing; listen to your local met office and heed any warnings or evac calls. But at the same time, try to soak in the moment, your part of history in a way. Then we all can come back on Monday or beyond and say "when I went through in 04........"
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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LI PHIL I TOOK A LOOK AT THE W/V LOOP THE HOLE GULF IS GOING WEST TO EAST NOW I CANT SEE HIM GETTING MUCH NORTH OF THE KEYS THEN TURNIG EAST IF SO HE WONT BE STRONG THE WINDS NOW ARE TO STRONG FROM THE WEST COULD BE A EAST COAST FL STORM .WHAT DO YOU THINK THATS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE TO ME THANKS GUYS GOOD LUCK.
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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My husband and I were watching at 9:00pm and Jim Cantore is in Sanibel Island. One of the anchors asked Dr. Lyons which storm he was more concerned with (duh) and he said, "Oh, absolutely, . Besides the wind and surge, we could see up to and over 10" of rain with this system."
That's going to be a problem, because most of the coastal rivers/canals are already at or near flood level.
Also, our local met mentioned Anna Maria Island being a target as of tonight's 11pm path. We are one hour northeast of Anna Maria Island. Wouldn't that mean that we would be on the right side quadrant of the storm? Isn't that usually the worst part to be in?
Oh yeah...the met mentioned that the Gulf IV will be heading back out to the storm at about 1:30am to get more readings.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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met
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im afraid this hurricane will rapidly intensifie this morning and on thursday. he is getting better organized at this time. could be cat 3 during thursday.night.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Any thoughts on the low that appears to be developing in between and Bonnie. WV sure is crowded tonight.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
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met
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colleen yu afraid to that charlie is about to deepen soon.
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Colleen A.
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I'm a little more alarmed that 's center of circulation was SSE of Jamaica and did not go directly over it, because that gives it more time over water and moves it closer to the westernmost tip of Cuba instead of the middle. Unless, of course, it decides to make that turn to the NW in the next 12 hours. The Cayman Islands are the next bullseye for .
I just really don't know what to think, except that the has done an excellent job with both storms.
Oh yeah..Jeff Morrow from is now in Tampa Bay.
Note: I meant SSW of Jamaica, not SSE.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by Colleen A. (Thu Aug 12 2004 05:14 AM)
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Anonymous
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There appears to be more of a northern component to . The storm is even looks more polar. Think the is on track with this storm.. Watch out it appears to be deepening.. --- Lake Toho - Kissimmee Fl 
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Colleen A.
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Daniel...when I looked at those wv loops on Bonnie, it almost appears that she is heading on a more E/NE track rather than NE. Have you or anyone else noticed that or are my eyes just really tired? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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andy1tom
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Loc: Callaway, Florida
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agree that bonnie has one more shot but i think its gonna be a blank.. shes not gonna fall apart but i doubt if she makes it to a cat 1. jason said earlier its still firing up storms and it is over the warmer water now but it still looks ragged. like was talked about earlier with all the rain already we will have some trees over powerlines but i will bonnie over anytime.. hopefully this will get ours outta of the way.
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LoisCane
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Loc: South Florida
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if there is a low to its north and dont think there is as much as a weakness because the high is collapsing... it would only enhance 's northward/poleward movement earlier
will see
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Yes I saw a trend toward the ENE. It's visible on the LIX, MOB and EVX radars. That's New Orleans, Mobile and NW FL radars respectively. You have to use long range, and the loop works best.
Bonnie also showing a jog on IR loops.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kevx.shtml
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Colleen A.
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I thought the same thing until they pointed out where the LLCC is. It is not in the big blob that just pounded Jamaica it is actually to the SSW of Jamaica making it''s way towards the Cayman Islands. So, I still think it's on a W/NW course but I'm no expert so don't take my word for it. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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met
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yes has done a great job. but they have warned that this hurricane could be stronger than they are forecasting.
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andy1tom
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Loc: Callaway, Florida
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it has zigged and zagged alittle earlier. but overall has been ne..it maybe zagging a little now. t
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Thanks Lois, that was what I was seeing. I'm not real good at the loops when they fill up, like they are now.
GOM is full of motion. Front in TX, Bonnie's wake turbulence, Bonnie's outflow,the mid/upper-level low near the Yucatan Channel, and then bringing up the rear. !
BTW: *not an ad!-WX Chan. is running some nice video shot Tuesday flying in Bonnie. Warren Madden was the flight met.
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LoisCane
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Loc: South Florida
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In Miami for instance...if we have heavy rain before a hurricane or a wet one and the ground becomes saturated we lose our big beautiful ficus trees. Their roots go out shallow along the ground in a spider like pattern vs a tree whose roots go deep. So....when the ground is that wet the trees slide over with their roots high up in the air looking like some grotesque horror scene out of a movie. And, then in a few days they rot in the hot tropical sunshine their wet leaves decaying and turning moldy and then baking in the sun. Really. Very sad...they take a massive chunk out of the ground and sometimes the sidewalk sits askew up into the air ripped away with the root system.
Did that answer your question?
Chris is so cute with that so proper "best regards" signature, such a little boyscout.. a sweet man. Always gets back to letters so timely.
Hope you this helped.
Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Wxwatcher2
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Well, tomorrow should start to tell the tale with .
It looks like the storm is trying to make the turn toward the NW now.
Lots of preparation being done throughout Florida. Home Depot stayed open later in my area near Orlando tonight.
Bonnie looks like it may come ashore a little more East than previously thought. I don't think Bonnie is much of a storm other than rain.
Thursday should be an intersting day.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Anyone know how much of the FL coastline is under a watch or warning now?
It's bound to be nearly as much as it was during Andrew '92.
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