Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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here are some bits from an orlando sentinel news article, have posted a link but you have to register to view it, and the article is too big to put all of it up.
"The prospect of back-to-back hurricanes hitting Florida within a day caused Gov. Jeb Bush to declare a state of emergency, some schools and government offices to close and forecasters to warn residents to prepare for the worst."
"Monroe County emergency officials were recommending that visitors evacuate the part of the 100-mile-long island chain under the watch, which can take several hours because there's only one road to the mainland. Residents were not being told to leave.
Apart form the state of emergency, Bush said more areas may need to be evacuated and he activated the Florida National Guard. In Monroe County public schools were scheduled to be closed Thursday and Friday, and schools in the Panhandle counties of Calhoun, Gulf, Liberty and Walton will be closed Thursday."
for anyone that wants to register, the link to the whole article is here
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weat...=orl-home-promo
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The link you posted brings up a page with Bonnie. Is it Bonnie or ?
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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They're BOTH on there. May be a little hard to distinguish since their future tracks (north of FL) are similar.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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met
Registered User
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Posts: 8
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HI im afraid will go up to 2 0r 3 cat. west. cuba is flat, central and east cuba are mountanis.
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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Phil, so you are saying those t #'s are for real? Thats kinda scary to think that a hurricane at 90+ mph winds is 2 days out. So who thinks bonnie will hit hurricane tonight? Lets do the poll.
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 275
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When do the new models come out?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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 The BAMM model shows heading for the LA coast. Does it seem to be keying in on something that other models are not seeing, or is it just flat out wrong? I would like to see some peoples professional explanation on this.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Looks like Bonnie and are going through their afternoon fade, which is ok by me. Rather not see them get really cranking. Nothing that appears to be out of line with either system though. Both seem to be behaving pretty close to what has been predicted.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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The BAMM model uses a different set of varibles. Others with more expertise can chime in here with more info on it. My impression is that BAMM is usually more reliable on hybrid systems and not as good on pure tropical systems like .
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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BAMM is a mid-layer beta advection model, and is not the right model for use with a deep storm like ...it should be discounted...
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Jason Kelley
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I hate to keep harping about it but seems to me the weak Low to the W of is affecting the path.The low is still moving W now that Bonnie is moving NE.The closer that gets to Low the more of a N push by .The low seems to be clearing a path for .The Low seems to of started moving again at decent clip.If it gets over theYUC it should bring over tip of Cuba.Bonnie I think puts a wrinkle in the trough for .I would think that goes further W into maybe AL. or FL panhandle.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Bonnie looks great on visibles, but she's definitely moving a bit more ENE than she is NE IMHO. Unless she pulls up north into NW FL, she may even go in farther east than my call (Bay or Walton Co.). Here's your first eye-witness report. We had some thunder in the distance earlier and I confirmed with radar and satellite that some general convection lined up just over us WSW-ENE and moved across. It's not a seabreeze and not the butt end of the trof. So I'm just calling it my one little taste of Bonnie.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Hey Jason, What effects do you think we'll feel here in Pensacola? Actually Im 10 Miles SE of Pensacola but anyways, Im no really expecting to much except some rain, but how about winds. My local discussion has said wind gust too 50 knots are possible. Do you see this? I personally think that may be to high. Should be intresting though. I think I may chase Bonnie to Destin or PCB since it has no chance of landfalling here.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Btw, the attachment is a picture out of my 4th Floor Office looking down onto St. Charles Ave. @ Gravier in the rain. 
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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On the current track, I think P'cola gets by with very little impact...some rain, a little wind, but that will be about it.
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Jason Kelley
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Steve,
I gotta agree with your assessment, sure looks to be moving more easterly than north ATTM. Looked at the vis, IR & WV, and they all seem to be coming to the same conclusion.
Bonnie
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Looks like Bonnie is moving NNE.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Poor Steve, You need some action over there in Louisiana. LOL I'll be lucky if I can get a few squalls tomorrow morning, as Bonnie passes to my SE. Maybe we should start to watch , as some models seem to take further west into the Central GOM.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Jason,
Do you have any kind of feel that could go further west and catch just enough of the trough to send him NW through the Gulf? I Think Bonnie will move inland pretty fast and will weaken the trough a little. Therefore a high will build in behind her sending on a more westerly course. Just wondering if that is a possibility or not. Anyone feel free to respond. :?:
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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What are your thoughts on ?
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