rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Bonnie first...
gonna hit waaay east of here, so I don't care...
Charley...
definitely fixing to explode. Starting first with the forward speed. a nice clip to develop a nice overhead system..not too fast...
second...staying over water..
third...night-time effect..
fourth...hurricanes have a "time clock"...and this one is just about ready to explode...
path......Now, looking at the satellites....it is definitely NOT gonna do what the old models are saying...it will path through to the west of Cuba as a category 3...and enter the gulf, with the entire GULF COAST watching...
probably landfall as a 4-5
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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rick, we love ya, but...
>>> Bonnie first... gonna hit waaay east of here, so I don't care...
It not a major hurricane (might not even be a hurricane), but don't think the folks in it's path "don't care."
and...
probably landfall as a 4-5
Lets not make jokes...I know, I know, you think it could really be a CAT V. That's funny when you're not potentially facing it. Lets try to be serious. It's not funny anymore.
Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
For those of you who are constantly hitting the GHCC site for updated loops, you might want to try this piece of software.
GHCCSat
This Windows app grabs whatever you want from the GHCC servers automatically on a timed schedule...you can set up multiple loops or whatever you want...and it is free.
It has been really handy in the office today...
Nice, that is incredibly handy. Thanks.
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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I wasn't joking...
Think will make it into the gulf as a cat 3...we will see. Maybe just a two...but certainly by the time it makes landfall, it will be a major hurricane.
After all...anything past a 3 is pure guess work. NO ONE knows what mechanisms must be present from a 3 to a 5.
But Gulf storms have the hottest water...hence, my thoughts that a serious one is in the making...
We'll see.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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They don't have Atlas rockets.....
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
Quote:
For those of you who are constantly hitting the GHCC site for updated loops, you might want to try this piece of software.
GHCCSat
This Windows app grabs whatever you want from the GHCC servers automatically on a timed schedule...you can set up multiple loops or whatever you want...and it is free.
It has been really handy in the office today...
Nice, that is incredibly handy. Thanks.
Thanks for the link. This is pretty cool stuff 
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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hurcon
Unregistered
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Wow it feels so good to be back! Lets get ta' trakin!
WESH, Channel 2 Orlando, Dave Marsh.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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With regard to the models.. The 18Z was almost 4 hours ago and I am sure they would have been used in the 5 PM forecast. While we do not always agree with the or NPC, models are only a few of the tools that they use, not all of them. If it were just models they used to forecast the track, we all could have their jobs.. Do not want to get off topic, nor do I want to offend anyone.
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Brett
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Hiya folks. First time posting this season. Been too busy at work to pay attention, but when the office sent the notice that we close if a hurricane watch is issued, i started paying attention. No wish-casting here. I am going with the forecast for now, and I say landfall for just north of Sarasota as a min. Cat. III. Local mets here are only concerned if slows down...they still believe the trof will pick him up, but the slower he goes, the more chance the keys may be in for a closer hit.
Will keep watching. Any new info, pass it along.
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South Florida
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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It's getting there. I will believe in the models tomorrow AM. Human interpretation is always on the top of the hierarchy like those of Jason Kelly, Dr. Lyons and those who participate on this board.
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Aug 11 2004 11:53 PM)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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now probably 16 hours or so from bonnie's landfall. i threw down mexico beach as my spot a couple evenings ago, looks like i'll hit it close. the 95kt/972mb intensity is probably a tad high though.. don't think the pressure will drop 30mb overnight. that isn't going to be very close.. so will go with 70kt/990mb for 11am tomorrow.. same place. don't think the infringing westerlies will weaken the storm.. my guess is they will enhance it baroclinically. will probably be losing tropical characteristics this time tomorrow over georgia.
charley.. slowing down, should intensify and move mostly northward next 48hrs and impact the west coast of florida. other night flagged the area from tampa bay to naples.. will narrow it to around sanibel island +-30miles either way. i'm not ready to pin the intensity as it could go through a rapid intensification phase and be major by tomorrow, or just plodding along as a 985mb cat 1. intensity is hard to forecast.. not ready to call that yet. suffice to say i think it will be major. landfall timetable has moved up quite a bit (monday evening had it entering the gulf saturday.. looks like it will be entering the atlantic by then). steve earlier alluded to the 5pm track moving inland again on the lower s.c. coast. shouldn't be much of anything up here.. bonnie will probably have more effect where i am (near augusta ga) when it goes by very late thursday. could well affect the charleston area with hurricane force winds saturday.. florida deserves the hype, but don't discount other places likely to get whacked by hurricane conditions.
elsewhere in the basin.. large upper ridge in the central atlantic upstream of the trough may fester something along the frontal remnants.. several swirls present there. the easternmost one has moved ne and is under enough shear to keep it capped.. unless it slows and banks against the ridge it won't have a chance to do anything, just be a weak nontropical low.
not seeing much in the SE part of the basin.. wave energy should be meeting up with the stagnant low-shear region over the next couple of days and kick off a disturbance or two. likes a wave progged to come off early friday or so.. when we're rid of the B/C storms D may be in the works.
not sure what to make of the persistent troughing and strong westerlies progged in the long range by . it was right about the strength of the current shortwave.. and is now pushing the persistence of this fall-like pattern with the atlantic ridge not flattening or backing eastward. the development of an atlantic-strike friendly pattern is doubtful at best right now.. atlantic development or not.
big issue needs to be seen to first:
will west florida have a 90mph, 120mph, or 140mph hurricane bearing down on it friday?
HF 2342z11august
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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That 'hierarchy' comment came from me- forgot to log in.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Dave - quick thought.. we are leaving Redington Beach for Orlando tomorrow thinking we might be in better shape (we live on the bay here). But, looking at the current tracking models, it could be Orlando gets more of the tormatic type activity and higher winds than we would even see here (assuming Charlie stays on the current path). What are your thoughts about Orlando's potential for winds/activity based on the current track?
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OrlandoWaiting
Unregistered
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Does anyone want tmake a gustimate at the wind speeds of Charlie as it moves near Orlando, FL?
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Things have changed a lot over the last several hours (since slowed) and I think a door is opening up for to come up through the Keys further to the right than we have been talking...but within the current cone from the hurricane center.
Check out THIS loop.. cause its easier to see variations in black and white sometimes.. please..
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
Now..below are my thoughts on why I think might curve faster to the right than we had thought this morning.
Yes I could be wrong..will be glad to say like Rabbit did.. oh i was wrong.. But I think this option should be paid attention to..
Click here: Unisys Weather: Water Vapor Satellite Image tells the future like a crystal ball .. it shows us where the storm will go..
my crystal ball tells me that is going to continue to slow and begin to go in the direction that the leading bands are pointing towards which would be more to the north as bonnie passes to his north
the ridge to the northeast of is buckling, partly from his outflow even and as the ridge buckles.. so will go..
south florida is not out of it.. hold off on declaring this a storm going up into the gulf west of the keys..
i dont buy it
and you can see the ridge trying to build in ...filter more and think can move more north..nnw first and then get possibly..really possibly trapped or stopped off the north coast of cuba near havana
sit and rest a bit near the embarcadero... then what? well..
if this loop plays out.. south florida could be in bigger trouble than we would believe from listening to the model discussion
maybe im wrong, but im good with the water vapor and this is what its telling me...
bonnie is moving in lower than expected and having more of an effect on
you know how you feel when you are falling in love?
you don't think quite right..you space out and smile
you sort of go with your heart and not your head?
well think is falling for bonnie and think the ridge is slip sliding away, allowing a door to swing open and let go more to the right than we were expecting.. tho the has left that door open
and i think watching the water vapor we can see why
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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About the models and the ones turning west:
1) Jeb Bush would NOT have declared a State of Emergency for the ENTIRE STATE of Florida for Bonnie.
2) They also would not have issued more hurricane watches north of the Keys at 5pm and will probably have the entire west coast of Florida covered by 5am tomorrow if they thought that was going to go straight west/north whatever. Do you know how much that costs? People on overtime, EOC centers being set up, etc. It doesn't make any sense at all.
If was going to take a westward track away from Florida, he would be fighting the elements. Hurricanes (or any weather event) always take the path of least resistance. would have to make a sharp left hand turn, run into Bonnie's remnants and ...you see where I'm going here.
I don't know what models are predicting this westward turn, but I can tell you that all 3 stations here in TB are telling us we ARE going to have a landfalling Cat 2 hurricane somewhere between Naples and Cedar Key early Friday morning. The further he scoots away from Jamaica before he makes the turn makes me nervous, as this gives him much more time to intensify. He's already beginning to show signs of more organization on the western side of the storm.
Also...for those living in the inland areas of West Central Florida, keep in mind that this is a huge storm and we will feel hurricane strength winds just like the coast. We just won't have the surge.
I'll gladly eat some crow for dinner if I'm wrong about this but too many times I've doubted the 's track and they have always been pretty much Johnny-On-The-Spot.
On another note....does anyone remember Tropical Storm Josephine in 1996 (or 97?) It was much like Bonnie....the said NO and it ended up near the big bend of Florida.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Does anyone want tmake a gustimate at the wind speeds of Charlie as it moves near Orlando, FL?
Not yet. Although I'm interested I'm landing at (Orlando International) around 2PM tomorrow, but after that I'm gonna try to get over to downtown a bit and check up here and then probably go to NSB or Brevard Co. On Friday, I expect to do the site, and work at regular job. It will be interesting.
I'll try to make a guestimate tomorrow?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Josephine was 1996
Josephine track
interesting that it at one point was moving slowly in about the same place taht Bonnie currently is
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Good post...good pictures. I made two observations:
1) The area in the eastern part of Texas is digging down and I think that's what is supposed to lift Bonnie up and out, and I can see that happenining pretty soon. It's almost there.
2) To the north of Texas is the ridge/trough that they have been talking about. I don't see it digging down far enough yet to push to the right any time soon.
I also don't think that Bonnie is going to have much of an influence on .
But that's just my own humble opinion .. which is about worth 2 cents on a good day. 
nice colleen, made the same observations i did. now if we can only get them to pan out...
HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 12 2004 12:10 AM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Miami TV went live for an hour on hurricane coverage. They didnt do that because Monroe county is under the gun..nah.. Miami is and has been all day in the cone... for two days from now... just in case, they all were live with hurricane coverage.
And..yes...whole state is a bit overkill for two hits on NW coast..
and yeah coleen i remember you from way back and you NEVER forget Josephine lol chuckle giggle.. nope, you dont.
I dont because you don't.
Oh well... this is a message board to post our thoughts. I'm not Maxie Mayfield and you aren't Colleen Rappaport so Im taking a chance and posting my thoughts and my thoughts are that this is NOT going wide left.
Not sure where 100% its going but its not going wide left.
I agree with you for all its worth.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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