Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yes, it was in 1996. I remember because we went to bed thinking we were going to get a little rain and wind and we woke up to find out that both of our cars had been broken into and we didn't hear anything because of the wind.
I better go play with my family...my younger son is doing backflips off the couch because he heard that we are going to have a hurricane and now he wants to fly to North Carolina. I've got to go reassure him that Mom and Dad will keep him safe, as he's only 8. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Alan
Unregistered
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Here's a great link to show inland wind models. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml
Based on it, if it comes ashore as predicted, 90 kts, it would be 65-75 mph in Orlando.
If it's a cat 3, it's 75-85 mph.
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
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Colleen the front is suppose to push thru the Houston area this evening. I think its going all the way out into the GOM so that is what is going to push Bonnie towards the panhandle of Florida.
As for the ridge - out in West Texas - I am still trying to understand how its affect will be on . Hopefully I will absorb enough of these great discussions.
Stay safe out there in Florida - and get prepared NOW.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Heading out right about now. My group is looking at St. George Island - recent developments have us considering east. The and NWS/Tallahassee said, in a 4pm conference call this afternoon, that if they are off on the track, it will be to the east. Thinking Panama City will be as far west as anyone wants to look, and we're going to start near St. George to be in a good place to go east or west...or north.
If we get there in time, we are going to try to meet with on the island, before 11pm. That depends on whether or not we can get on to the island or not. You never know...
Should be an interesting trip, that's for sure. Still thinking low end cat 1 - looks like my forecast of 75kt from Monday may be a bit on the high sid, but not too far off. Will be carefully watching it overnight from the coast to see what happens.
Happy chasing, all.
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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The Melbourne Weather service website is predicting Orlando area winds on Friday afternoon and evening to be SUSTAINED at 40-50mph, with GUSTS possibly to 75mph
--Lou
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Chad
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 22
Loc: Citrus County, Fla.
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<<bonnie is moving in lower than expected>>
That's what I thought I was seeing in the last hour or so...just watching loops makes me think Bonnie is looking at big bend.
A question re: the 8pm update...are the coords for Bonnie a correction or a westward wobble?
08/11 5:00 PM 26.7N 89.3W 65MPH 1001mb Northeast near 12 MPH TS Bonnie 08/11 5:00 PM Stewart
08/11 8:00 PM 27.1N 88.7W 65MPH 1001mb Northeast near 12 MPH TS Bonnie 08/11 8:01 PM Beven
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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North 0.4 deg and East 0.6deg is pretty close to a NE track as far as I'm concerned. Perfect NE track would be 0.4 and 0.4.
i plugged the coordinates into my GPS. here's the result.
Track for 18Z to 21Z fix is 019deg and 31.8nautical miles.
This is a distance of 223nm from Keesler AFB.
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 12 2004 12:56 AM)
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Alan
Unregistered
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I think the NWS has a limit they can forcast hurricane strength winds based on how far the hurricane is away from the given area. The guy from Melbourne referenced it yesterday or earlier today in his forcast.
This is further shown that the forcast for Fort Myers to Tampa has winds of only 52 mph on Friday, when the storm is predicted to hit there on Friday with 105 mph winds.
I may be wrong on that, however, if it hits that area with 105 mph winds and is still cruising at 20 mph.and comes up through the Orlando area, I would guess that places in the Orlando area would see sustained winds in the 75 to 85 mph range. That's my guess from Northwest Orlando.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Bonnie Fix-
URNT12 KNHC 120029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0029Z
B. 26 DEG 55 MIN N
88 DEG 50 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1486 M
D. 20 KT
E. 010 DEG 32 NM
F. 091 DEG 25 KT
G. 010 DEG 048 NM
H. 1008 MB
I. 18 C/ 1524 M
J. 21 C/ 1529 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/08
O. 1 /3 NM
P. AF963 0902A BONNIE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 25 KT N QUAD 0013Z
Charley Fix000
URNT12 KNHC 120017
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0017Z
B. 17 DEG 28 MIN N
78 DEG 09 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1342 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 204 DEG 60 KT
G. 132 DEG 06 NM
H. 992 MB
I. 16 C/ 1530 M
J. 19 C/ 1511 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. AF968 0403A OB 07
MAX FL WIND 60 KT SE QUAD 0015Z.
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 12 2004 12:59 AM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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URNT12 KNHC 120017
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0017Z
B. 17 DEG 28 MIN N
78 DEG 09 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1342 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 204 DEG 60 KT
G. 132 DEG 06 NM
H. 992 MB
I. 16 C/ 1530 M
J. 19 C/ 1511 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. AF968 0403A OB 07
MAX FL WIND 60 KT SE QUAD 0015Z.
Interesting. A 1mb drop in pressure. Plus, if I am reading this correctly, the recon found the center a little north of the 8PM position. Am I reading this wrong?
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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A local station in Orlando is showing a different projected path than the . They are showing it skirting St Pete to the West, and landfall in the Big Bend. I've never noticed a station do this, and I'm wondering how common this is.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Guys,
I posted a long time ago this morning, when you two were probably sleeping (  ), but unless you care to decode the recon messages for the posters who don't understand how to read them, please don't post them.
It's not that they're unappreciated. I have my cheat-sheet so I can do it, but they're completely useless to many of the casual posters.
I only say this because I've received several PM's from members asking them NOT to be placed on the main forum.
I'll leave them up for now, but in the future, if you want to post them, either highlight the important parts or explain the "requirements" next to the alpha numbering (alpha numbering?). You know what I mean.
Thanks
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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HF...I might have said the same thing you did, but I had no idea that I was doing that....you use big fancy words, I use itty bitty ones, LOL..
Anyway, I'm glad it made sense to someone.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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And no, it's not Dave's station. 
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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ok.. before I head on the road to safety (or lack of it), I am placing my marbles in a Spring Hill to New Port Ritchey landfall (thus why I am running from here).
The reason for my guess is because most storms I have seen 48 hours out has moved north up the coast from projections over the years. Plus, I think SWTMD is calling for a northerly hit as well and they tracked a depression last year that hit Indian Rocks Beach when everyone else said Sarasota. Believe SWFTMD over ??? Yeah - I know - totally illogical. I agree. But, that's my projection as a total novice.
Good luck all - stay safe.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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There is an Atlas Rocket on the launch pad at Kennedy Space Center as we speak. So the person who states that there are no Atlas Rockets at Kennedy is wrong. I saw it today on the way home as a matter of fact. It is being secured.. Too late to bring it in..
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Chad
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 22
Loc: Citrus County, Fla.
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Oh...sorry...25 years as a surveyor...for some reason I read it as an easting...old habits die hard 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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You mean Channel 6. They are showing their prediction vs Prediction. Whats worthwile to note is their prediction hasnt changed once since they posted it yesterday. I believe they are basing theirs on climatology.. However, with that said I believe they are not doing a service to the community by doing this. I would rather they error on the side of caution . Basically they are sending mixed messages by doing this.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
I've heard a lot of talk today about where the exact location of the eye is...its important for models but if the big round ball that is mostly N and NE of the eye has hurricane force winds you have to watch the whole red bouncing ball.
Please keep that in mind.
Rely on the charts which show where the path of tropical storm force winds and hurricane winds are not just the eye.
Getting off the soap box.
Good job the Hurricane Center is doing..original tracks had it going just south of jamaica if I recall and then turning up towards the West coast of Cuba making a curve towards the West Coast of Florida. So far.. on track. How far west or east is the big issue.
Does anyone think that by that time can be a major or just a cat 2?
I think that He will enter the Gulf as a 2 and make it to a cat 3 before he hits land.
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
A local station in Orlando is showing a different projected path than the . They are showing it skirting St Pete to the West, and landfall in the Big Bend. I've never noticed a station do this, and I'm wondering how common this is.
Sounds like the track that is up on Accuweathers site. Are they an Accuweather station?
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