Anonymous
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1mb drop but the winds have come down to 60Kt=69MPH
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Sorry about the message. I posted more becuase I saw a difference between the advisory and the vortex message. Was just wanting to make sure my math was right on the position.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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There are Atlas rockets at . All you have to do is look it up on Google. If they're strapping it down, then they know as much as the does.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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thanks phil. i got a cheat sheet too but it is a pain to follow. be great to get the guts of the report and let "you experts" disect the rest of it.. thats twice you been called a expert now
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Okay Lois was right, and I'll take my crow roasted.
Supp Vortex came in and they found some 33kt winds in Bonnie.
It ain't over til it's over.
MF264 M0883 MF033- 26.4N 88.3W 33kts
OBS 01 AT 0039Z
OBS 07 AT 0104Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
RMK AF963 0902A BONNIE OB 06
*this is not a new fix, just the location of the highest wind found on this flight leg.**
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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With regard to the models.. The 18Z is 4 hours ago and I am sure they would have been used in the 5 PM forecast. While we do not always agree with the or NPC, models are only a few of the tools that they use, not all of them. If it were just models they used to forecast the track, we all could have their jobs.. Do not want to get off topic, nor do I want to offend anyone.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
A local station in Orlando is showing a different projected path than the . They are showing it skirting St Pete to the West, and landfall in the Big Bend. I've never noticed a station do this, and I'm wondering how common this is.
Sounds like the track that is up on Accuweathers site. Are they an Accuweather station?
I'm not sure, but I just checked the Accuweather site, and it is the same graphic. That would be why the local met mumbled something about the official track being farther east. I can buy Accuweather's track a little better, but I think it sends confusing messages to a confused enough public. Accuweather had better be awfully confident about their track.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The 1200Z-latest available only has going to 84kts. This is about 96.6 mph - a minimal CAT2. On the Friday the 13th at 1200Z-5amEDT.
Lats are between 20.5 and 22.3
Longs are between 84.4 and 85.3
They should update this in a few hours.
*Please use the official forecast for forecast location and wind sppeds.**
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 12 2004 01:41 AM)
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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In the latest vortex. It has 1008mb pres. and max fl wind of 25knts. 12/0029z or 8/11 9:29 pm EDT
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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Bonnie might not make Hurricane strength. If it didn't it would be the first time in 5 storms. (ever since 1980 when it was first used it has reached hurricane strength)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The latest vortex was correct, at the time they had not finished the leg of flight they were on. They found a 33kt wind at the above location. Doesn't change anything, at this time to the fix, just the max flight level wind. Thanks, I guess I should have given a note on that post.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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What influence is Bonnie going to have over assuming he doesn't make a sharp left at the Yucatan Like so many of the Canes do that appear to be heading to Tampa Bay. Whose pressure has to be the greatest to influence the other. Bonnie with high pressure, or with low pressure? This is interesting to me because of some of the newest drawings out, speculating that at some point the storms will actually have crossing path like contrails from jet airplaines
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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met
Registered User
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anons are wishcasting. explain how it wiil avoid digging trof,
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Callaway, Florida
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its getting stronger no its falling apart no wait there is flair up again... haven't we discussed this before. bonnie is not gonna be predictable on strenghth it looks like. the has had a pretty good handle on it track though. she may die down a little but i think she has one more kick to her. she is gonna go over that pool of warm water before landfall and that will give her one last chance to get it going. i think how much she gets it going will depend on her speed. the slower going the greater the chance. the good news for us pc people is the slower she goes the more east she will move. btw no wind and no rain just hot and muggy here
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LALLMDL.html
Impressive collection of model runs from hurricane alley.....
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John C
Unregistered
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Note to Anonymous Users:
Registration only requires a valid E-mail address we ask of nothing else. Your E-Mail address will be kept confidential with unless YOU allow it out. Reason for email is so you can be sent your password automated after you register and also for security reasons.
Main Benefit of registering is that this system will keep track of the messages/posts you have read so you do not have to scroll through them all to find out where you have left off. You can jump to new posts since last read.
Thanks and please take time to register it will only make your visits to more enjoyable.
Sorry for being off topic but I see a lot of Anonymous users browsing the forums.
John Cornelius
CFHC
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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I would say the same thing but a 42mph fluctuation. Is pretty big. But there is still the warm water.  or not
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks for the post John C.
Maybe it would help if the anon's don't ID themselves, then their posts don't stay on the boards?
Seriously, though...there are two potentially deadly storms a-brewing. Everyone is welcome to post here (so far), but at the very least, anon's ID yourselves. John's right about the regging...all they ask is for an email address. Trust me, you're not going to be tracked or spammed or anything else. And, there are actually many benefits to being a registered member...
Think about it before I start whacking anon posts  .
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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wxwatcher3
Unregistered
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I watched channel six weather as well as channel 2 and 9 locally in Orlando at 6pm. Channel 9 (( I think) does the best job of acurately describing the storm and it's path as defined by the .
I agree that the channel six weather dept is doing the public a disservice if they only use their station to base the info on. Of course, as the storm gets closer, I'm sure they would modify their track. I know that there are various opinions on tracks and forecasts but when you are a major media outlet, I think it prudent to err on the conservative side. I'd rather think it's coming over my house and then miss me by 100 miles than not be prepared.
As a matter of fact, the track does have the storm directly overhead at my location Friday night.
I kind of hope the Western tack is correct but am not counting on it.
Thanks everyone for your posts. Lets keep a close watch on
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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I have always been one to pay close attention to the water vapor loops, but I had never seen the unisys versions, much easier to see things than with the others. I too think that has/will start a turn more to the north, and the wv shows that. I also think that in the last few ir frames is elongating more SE/NW, but it is too early to tell. Maybe in the next 6-8 hours we will know for sure. But all of us in South Florida are watching intently, and our local news stations are making sure we are on the edge of panic.
Bill
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