Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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A turn is not totally unexpected. I don't think this is a comparison to Irene, at this time. There were factors that it was moving in a particular direction and not making the forecast change. So far, this system is running a different path and seems to be performing within reason on the projected path. Granted it has been edging to the right of forecast lately; but not by a larger degree. Anything is possible; but i do not see a correlation with this system and Irene. I was screaming mad about Irene. It seemed to be obvious what they were saying was wrong. I do not see anything that they are saying that is obviously wrong at this time.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Seems like this is starting to take its northern turn.. They eye normally dictates the direction its going to be going and the past loops seem to verifying this..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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gofin13
Unregistered
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I would be completely surprised ,but now and again we get surprised as far as Hurricanes go!!
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Anonymous
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I would not even say that what they are saying is wrong - it's just that all these models spit out these nice, neat clean arcs for hurricane tracks, and how often does it really happen that way? All I'm saying is, the SW FL coastline isn't much further east than Sarasota or even Tampa. Yet, a hit on SW FL would put us over here in a lot rougher weather than a hit on Tampa would.
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joepub1
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Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Give it a few more frames. The sun getting to a funny angle now.Overall, I think w of n till past Cuba. At least give it an hour till the 5pm updates. See what they say at , who are not at fault if fails to hit S Florida.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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One thing too look at is the arc that is listed in the forecast. If you are within that arc, you should consider it being targeted on you. I think a lot of people concentrate on the line. Anything within the arc could reasonably happen.
Irene was an example of a storm flying out of the arc. It was horrible forecasting. I think once finishes his interactions with Cuba, we should get a much more accurate idea on how this will all fall out. For now, if you are in or near the forecast arc, you should take the precautions you deem nessecary.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Models are based on fixed variables; human intuition is sometimes an intangible necessity, but you can't take that to the bank. Something is not right with the models but I have faith in to fairly adjust their predictions based on the physical evidence as well. It costs a ton of money to cry wolf and set off emergency management protocols needlessly or without physical justification!
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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hurricane_run
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Loc: USA
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Correct
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
"make their own weather".
I dunno if they actually make their own environment, but I do think they certainly 'bend it' more than just a small amount. It may be an old wives tale, I don't know, but much 'real medicine' is derived from old folk remedies once they understand what is really going on. Hey, we have 'medical leeches' now, and use maggots to clean infections that don't respond to conventional antibiotics. The old wives tale says the big storms do make their own weather, and I believe, in many cases, it to be worth knowing where the saying came from and it's basis in fact. Just because we haven't found or understood the science behind the saying doesn't mean we shouldn't discount it entirely. I also tend to agree that if is already a cat 3 storm, it will not necessarily follow the forcasted tracks based upon a TS or Cat 1 storm. I would tend to bet on a bending to the East could be happening, wives tale or not. An early apparant turn to the N, appears to have possibly started and that would support a more easterly track. In a way, I hope we're both (all 3 of us) are wrong because as much as I would like to see Tampa spared, i remind myself that I do live in Orlando, and I personally would NOT like a major storm bearing down on me because an old wives tail turned out to be right.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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andy8
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Loc: New Glasgow,Nova Scotia Canada
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" Polar " shaped means what??
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Kevin
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Loc: EC Florida
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GEEZ! I never expected to intensify so rapidly this afternoon...I thought it would make landfall at the intensity it is at now...I can only imagine how aggressive the NWS Melbourne local forecasts may be at 5:00 PM.
It was announced around lunchtime that my school was closing, apparently they are using the school as a shelter. This wasn't even considered during the last few systems that impacted the Florida W. Coast. Perhaps the School Board and my school sensed this ahead of time..using a school that is in Seminole County as a shelter seems to add a dimension of seriousness to this situation.
I hope everyone is ready! Hold on tight Florida!!!!
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Anonymous
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Quote:
One thing too look at is the arc that is listed in the forecast. If you are within that arc, you should consider it being targeted on you. I think a lot of people concentrate on the line. Anything within the arc could reasonably happen. >>
Oh, I agree completely. I guess what I'm trying to say is, I don't think this is a done deal at all, and a lot of people seem to act like it is. Reminds me a lot of people who leave a 7-4 baseball game in the 6th inning, thinking they've won (or lost) the game, when there's still a lot of game to be played.
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Rasvar
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
Oh, I agree completely. I guess what I'm trying to say is, I don't think this is a done deal at all, and a lot of people seem to act like it is. Reminds me a lot of people who leave a 7-4 baseball game in the 6th inning, thinking they've won (or lost) the game, when there's still a lot of game to be played.
No disagreement on that point.
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Anonymous
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Does any one agree that Tampa is the 3rd worst place that could get hit in a hurricane .
1) New York
2) N.O
3) Tampa
I'll go with 115 next adv then a scary surpise adv after that .
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Polar meaning oval to North and South..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Was just a wobble to the right has resumed is NNW to NW track.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Looks like our Cuban friends are in for a rough next few hours as well.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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NHC Discontinuing Bonnie..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
Quote:
"make their own weather".
I dunno if they actually make their own environment, but I do think they certainly 'bend it' more than just a small amount. >>
I always thought that they needed to be quite intense, to be substantial movers and not just be "leaves in the stream." To me, that seems to be the province of high cat. 4s-5s. But it seems that even they get turned by troughs, if the trough is strong enough.
Maybe a very strong storm could pump enough heat into a high-pressure system, bolster it a bit, and maintain a more westerly course longer? I don't know.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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I have got a link to it. Just need a couple min. (their systems aren't that easy somtimes)
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