bobbi
Unregistered
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Have seen them all through good and bad periods and have seen them hype.. this was a careful observation that we are dealing with a deepening front in early august and a storm coming up out of the caribbean into south florida in august vs one coming in from turks and caicos.
Im not wishcasting.
Norcross is sticking to view and said that its right where they said it would be.. tho did indicate that SE Florida could get storms with stronger winds that expected because of size of storm and where exact point of movement across the straits is tomorrow.
But NO ONE and I mean no one has dealt with this...
On ..there is the old weather forecast for today, tonight and tomorrow. No one thought to change it.
Todays winds were to be out of the E..strong breeze
Tonight SE.. strong
Tomorrow morning stronger SSE
Well we are officially way ahead of that cause we have strong winds out of the S
That is a busted forecast on a small scale.
If that is and it is...how much more will be off tomorrow.
Don't tell me I'm wishcasting when the TV says my winds are 15 out of the E and I have 15 out of the S with a strong building Cat 2 to the South.
I think Norcross is obsessive on the reality that Tampa hasn't had a bad direct hit in ages and he is worried. He said it *could* make landfall as a Cat 4.
will see what they do at 5.. big decisions
hope they dont say its going NW becuase its more NNW
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bobbi
Unregistered
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They didnt expect such rapid intensification either I don't think.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hurricane Forecast/Advisory Number 14
Statement as of 21:00Z on August 12, 2004
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Hurricane Warning has been extended
northward along the Florida West Coast to Bayport. A Hurricane
Warning is now in effect for the Florida Keys from the Dry Tortugas
to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for the Florida West Coast from East
Cape Sable northward to Bayport. The warning will likely be
extended northward later tonight. A Hurricane Warning means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area during
the next 24 hours. Preparations should be rushed to completion.
The Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida West Coast
from north of Bayport northward to the Suwannee river. A Hurricane
Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including all of
Florida Bay. At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued
for portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts from Jupiter Inlet
northward to Altamaha Sound...including Lake Okeechobee.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the following provinces of
western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...
Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth. At 5 PM...the government of the
Cayman Islands has discontinued all warnings.
Hurricane center located near 21.2n 81.9w at 12/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at 16 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 980 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
Max sustained winds 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
64 kt....... 25ne 20se 10sw 20nw.
50 kt....... 60ne 50se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt.......110ne 100se 40sw 90nw.
12 ft seas..200ne 140se 60sw 200nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Watched LoisCane's 48 hour IR run on . The convection is bending north as it interacts with Cuba and possibly as it feels the tail of Bonnie to its north. But the eye (did a 10 loop visible zoom) is definitely stair-stepping between North and NW. Click it on the Goes 12 while you still have daylight to do it. He's become quite the circular storm today. The other thing I wanted to mention was that no matter what direction it's moving in when it hits the keys, ALL of the southern tip of the Peninsula will be in on gales and the like.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Great Points.. I just know how both of them can get.. Glad you think they are being reasonable this time.. Good luck to you.. I use to live in Pinecrest for 20 years. and then South Beack.. Was in Pinecrest during Andrew..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i'm going to start removing unsigned anonymous posts.. if you're brave enough to make forecast calls, or stoke fears about a particular path the storm may take, you should be brave enough to identify yourself. just add a name or handle into the window.. that's all you have to do.
other than that, the usual 'stay on topic' rule applies especially because of the situation.
HF 2040z12august
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Here it is. http://www.met.inf.cu/ if the radar doesn't show up go to el tiempo then tiempo hoy. there will be a drop down menu. click on radares. in the box next to it will be the names of three radars. choose Cienfuegos
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Charley is now forecast by the to be packing 120mph winds at landfall in Florida. The discussion did say that may weaken slightly before landfall. Once again, good luck to those in his path.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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for reading my mind 
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bobbi
Unregistered
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if reaches that cool pocket of water close to Tampa.. and that is a big if...
if (more realistic) it comes in further south ..traveling across warm Florida Bay and goes into area south of Naples it will not have that cool pocket but rather hot water
never heard anyone of norcross stature utter "maybe even cat 4" prior to today with this storm
3.. major yeah but not that strong a major
wait til its off of cuba but its only 90 miles to KW..
ps... as i said.. isle of pines.. havana...key west its a pattern
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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The question becomes when does it become favorable to turn N-NE .. at what approximate point after passing Cuba?
Models believe it will continue N until it reaches south of Tampa then make its N-NE turn, at least that is what I'm seeing.
Your thoughts?
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Hard to say Steve... stair stepping, indecisive or just size of eye growing on last loops making movement look a big jagged
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bobbi
Unregistered
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by heart
hoping im wrong.. nice to see it slide by key west by miles to the west.. dont think so and worried about key west, really really worried.. all the weather is on east side/ne which is classic for a classic major..
maybe crossing like summerland or big pine could help key west..
wondering how many people decided not to leave the keys this morning when one of two routes out was blocked and people didnt want to have a similar problem on card sound road?
as for turn to the NNE... think earlier.. lets see when it turns north.. id say around havana
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I saw the comment about the left shift in the models and took a look. They sure as heck did. is showing into Big bend now. Not sure what to think. I think they are smart holding the current line and waiting to see what happens. Could be a good thing for major areas. Bad thing if you live in the Big Bend. is going to make things tough, that much is certain. Sorry , you are a real stinker!
Edited by Rasvar (Thu Aug 12 2004 08:59 PM)
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Another good Cuban radar site, showing 's eye moving NNW for now.
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/Cienfuegos/cienfuegosa.gif
TG
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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If you noticed they discounted this because the hurricane was to 30-60 NMiles east of the model tracks., as well as the trough that they think will keep it from moving west.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Thanks you got the direct link.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Long range composite radar out of the Keys also confirms the NNW motion.... center is going to be real close to the east side of the Isle of Youths
can't access the long range base reflectivity... too busy I guess
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Fl Panhandle
Unregistered
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If continues a north track into the big bend area giving the strength he might be, what affect will he have west of the big bend area? I remember Opal and also i have a sister in Orlando who is very worried as is everyoneto the south. thoughts and prayers to everyone in 's path.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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here's the loop http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
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