Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Rich,
I'm in Palm Bay and as of yet schools are not closed. They said to watch the news tonight and they will post it there.
From the local6.com website....
Charley Moves Closer, Central Florida Closes Schools
UPDATED: Tropical Storm Bonnie comes on shore near Apalachicola as Hurricane forces officals to cancel classes Friday in Orange, Lake, Polk, Osceola and Seminole counties.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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Could the tightening and developing into a major hurricane itself. cause to inhibit it's forward motion?
As the storm tightens, it develops it's own high pressure ridge at some point, and in my mind, it becomes powerful enough to somewhat ignore steering currents. After all, this storm has power in and of itself.
Just throwing stuff out there to talk about gang. I am no expert...just reading my posts is proof of that..
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Its downpouring and very very very windy right now. in Kissimmee
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Your local government officials must deal with the what is now factor as well. Wishing or hoping will not save lives. Action based on sound information does.
There are a lot of folks to move out of harms way in a short period of time. Nursing homes, mobile homes, trailers, low lying flood prone houses. YOu name it. I'm glad to see the plans being put into force as we speak.
If it does come in at Tampa Bay, we'll see why it's calle a bay, with all the flooding.
I don't see the storm going West at all. Not with the set up the way it is.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I'm leaving for a while, too. I need a nap.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Larger and powerful hurricanes create their own 'environment' and that can throw off all the models (if not most).
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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I dont think this qualifies as a larger or more powerful hurricane just yet. NCH has been right on so far. I will go with the projections for now.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yes, but keep in mind that the models are not the only thing forecasters base their tracks on. There is a lot more to it than that.
The weather we're getting now is from Bonnie. It is windy, hot, humid and now it's thundering outside.
Just a thought for everyone: when was the last time the really missed their forecasted track?
One thing's for sure: we'll know one way or another on Saturday who got hit and who didn't.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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SOUTHFLHAPPY GAL
Unregistered
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Great posts guys! What are the chances of being hit in broward or palm beach counties?? I'm just an amatuer
thanks
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Yes they can. And we can't predict how that unique environment will react to change.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I say the jury is out on its strength, speed, and destination until clears Cuba.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Exactly
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SOUTHFLHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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WHAT TIME IS IT PASSING CUBA?
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
While the attention is rightly on I can say that Danielle may be not too far from forming judging from those pics at .
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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but like Wxwatcher2 action based on info. You cant wait until the hurricane is oon top of you to evac
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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It even looks like its spining already. Wow
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Very dry but very very windy. I could be wrong but I think the winds are already higher and steady. And, Bonnie came in I believe on the right side of the track forecast. A lot going on and am waiting to see where he crosses.
When a system crosses east of Isle of Pine/Youth/whatever Castro wants to call it.. they have a tendency to affect south florida more. Talking historically. When they come in to the west they tend to go into the gulf or west coast storms. Always been my observation and sharing it.
Keep up the great posts. Bobbi
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Charley is very close to the 6Z run positions at its last two postings and on the apparent future track, which is still largly NW, should exit Cuba over the narrowest portion of the Island. Satelite pics which show the air currents from that point on the island northward seem to continue the assumption of a land fall just south of Tampa in the Sarasota County area. This has been pretty much the same scenario over the past 6 hours. The major change has been the strengthening of the storm which is occurring, but that was part of the guidance the used at the 11 am discussion and statements issued then. Nothing happening now should deter us from the 's positions on this storm at this time.
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doug
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Not like I want to post this, but the 1704Z (1:04pm E) recon report on is showing max winds of 105kts (120mph). That's a lot, folks. 981mb and dropping, 20'14N, 81'25W, so it's crossed over 20N. I haven't run the numbers to see the direction it's been running and speed (will do when I find the prior recon data), but man oh man..this one's building quickly....
Londovir
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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we'll just have to wait and see.
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