joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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I dont think this qualifies as a larger or more powerful hurricane just yet. NCH has been right on so far. I will go with the projections for now .
Thank you Gary. I wanted to go there, but resisted as we've had this come up too many times before. When a Cat 1 starts changing the weather......
By the way, he's going to be over the flattest, most narrow part of Cuba- for about 2 hours. It will slow down his ability to get stronger for a little while, but it won't slow down his forward speed. It won't change his direction. The explained that fairly well in the 11am discussion.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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His eye has stroms biulding around it and is be coming more defined. Charley's eye
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Cat 2 now winds 105 mph Yikes
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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SOTHFLHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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IT'S RAINING CATS AND DOGS HERE IN FT LAUDERDALE.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Again I see Charlie moving more North -North west than NW per satellite imagery.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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bobbi
Unregistered
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This is from www.click10.com the first one I could think of, catchy name.. "Wind: South at 17.0 MP"
sorry but think the winds should be out of the SSE, checked and miami is reporting S too
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Yep 105mph Cat 2. And the plot thickens...
Those in the path of this storm need to batten down the hatches.
Edited by hurricane_run (Thu Aug 12 2004 05:56 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Go to the site and watch the last 90 minutes of vis sat pixs, it is an amazing show... explosive convection in the eastern half of the storm.. the eye still appears to be heading in a general NW direction, wobbles north, then west... like climbing stairs.... if anything it might hint of a couple of degrees north of northwest in motion, but that's just speculation looking at the sat loops... the Cuba's Isle of Yutes is going to get devastated .... soon
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/projects/sat_products.html
The has been right on thus far with who has behaved himself quite well relative to track and motion, except for the intensity part... I expect the interaction with the islands to at least inhibit the intensity level for a while... won't take much to regain what he lost once he gets back into the GOM... Boy, I feel sorry for someone if this trend continues.... things can certainly change.... but that doesn't look to be on the horizon with this one...
Good Luck to all the Florida residents who is in this bad boys path....
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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You know, it's funny you said that. I went back to the 's 11am advisory position, and then their 2pm advisory position, and according to WGS84 earth model coordinates, I read the movement over the last 3 hours as being 338, which is most definitely more NNW than NW.
Wonder how the models will handle the situation if it turns out the heads a little more east than they figured. I looked at the more recent model plots, and is, to my eyes, sitting on the very top tip edge of all the plots, not in the middle.
Wait and see, wait and see....
Londovir
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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This is one of those storms that you don't want to see hit anyone. Good luck to all those in harms way. Remember if you are asked to evacuate then do it . I't's the right thing thing to do . Good Luck
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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Well put.
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
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Good advice. Now that everyone in Florida knows it is coming their direction - take the time to prepare your home and get the necessary supplies and extend an helping hand to any elderly neighbors you have that might need help.
Stay safe and God Bless.
www.wildonweather.com/forum
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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Back from St. George Island...
Well, we're left feeling like Bonnie stood us up at the altar or something. We arrived around 10:45pm and met with the crew - we were at the same places they were/are there. All of the data we had before leaving and all of the discussions we had with people in Tallahassee & Orlando said we were in the right spot. And we were, to tell the truth. Except Bonnie decided to die out overnight.
Here, we go thinking I'll call at 2am and get some good data saying Bonnie's strengthening or holding it's own - the diurnal cycle - yet I hear dramatic weakening. We sneak some sleep between 3 and 4:45a before getting into position for landfall.
Our winds generally were between 10 and 15kt, maybe 20kt on avg. during the last rainband. The highest gust we recorded was about 21kt, but measured a 31mph wind in my presence. Three good rainbands, a couple of moderate ones sandwiching a weak one, and that was it. The center turned east near the coast, tantalizing us with the "good stuff" but bringing in bright skies in it's wake.
We left before the sun fully came out at SGI, but it was starting to when we did leave. Got back to Tallahassee and saw the reports - that pink pool toy visible in the background was largely untouched by the wind until we actually lifted it up. Kinda depressing because we expected more, but we had a lot of fun nonetheless, had an encounter with groupies (a scary bunch, lol), and took some photos and video as Bonnie tried to come ashore, likely as a hybrid system.
Now time to watch , though I doubt I'm going to head after that one...Bonnie's going to help to pick it up, I think.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Points well taken, RiconBoat. However, this storm has done everything the has said it would do.
Actually it didn't. They were way off the other morning as to where it was supposed to be. But it got where it needed to be so it doesn't really matter how it got there. Keep them kiddies safe Colleen.
>>I looked at the more recent model plots, and is, to my eyes, sitting on the very top tip edge of all the plots, not in the middle.
In that case, hopefully it will end up being an Everglades storm and kill off a few gators or something instead of people. Hopefully the bromiliads will survive.
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Out of curiosity, what's everyone south of Lake City doing right now for preps et al? What are your party provisions, emergency provisions, etc.? Are you evacuating or planning to spend quality time with friends or family?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Last 12 hrs...exactly NW.2.4n to 2.3 w..Last 6= 1.2 n to 1.0w; last 3= .7n to.3 west......not a trend yet...but could be hint of things to come. The run did not take the storm west of 83.
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doug
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Watching along with all of you.
Funny how old friends come out of the woodwork to email when there is a storm threatening. Some just get to the point.. I like those emails. Someone wants to know if they should evacuate their daughter from college in Tampa. Okay..well like where? Naples? Orlando...wincing.. bring them back to Miami??? Told them best advice was unless they were bringing her home now to Boca.. or sending her to NY for the weekend, tell her to hunker down safe in secure building, inland, etc.. I mean can anyone here tell someone with total sureness to send someone away from Tampa not knowing if storm will cross much further to the south of right? For sure???
Can't be sure..its too far away and south of Cuba. A weekend in Acapulco might sound like a good idea about now? Seattle?
great wave off africa ...took my breath away btw
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I'm here in Lakeland, and our apartment complex has pretty much said absolutely no to putting any plywood up that is nailed into any part of the building. Just wonderful. I'm contemplating measuring the window space inside the brick edging and seeing about wedging a chunk of plywood tightly into that place. We also have a balcony above us, so there are support poles in our patio, and I've had delusional ideas about stringing up some 6mil vinyl in between the support poles as a sort of "oh darn" tarp/spiderweb to catch some of the clumsy debris that might get coughed up.
I'm really being overly paranoid. Our apartment has a sliding glass door facing into a small quad of trees in the middle of a full rectangle of apartment buildings. Since the buildings completely surround the quad more or less, I'm thinking the wind won't be too bad since it'll get broken up by the buildings, but I'm more concerned with moron neighbors who won't pull in their lawn chairs and such off the backyard.
Oh well. Still have time to debate what kind of tissue paper solution I want to try and put up to minimize any potential damage.
Londovir
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Can't access SSD or right now. Guess they're being overwhelmed.
Charley is starting to look REALLY scary.
Can't really say anything about preparing and leaving if told to do so than has already been said. I'm praying for all you guys on the Gulf Coast, especially those in and around Tampa.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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They make a specially designed clip that you put on the edge of your plywood, then insert the plywood inside the inside edge of your brick window casing... you do this in lieu of having to nail, or when you don't have anything to nail your plywood to... I would image a Home Depot or Lowes would have them, if they are not alread sold OUT.... you just need to make sure you can secure the wood to the house or apt, or else its going to get airborne and cause even more havoc...
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jaybythebay
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
Loc: Mobile,Al
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How sure is everyone is staying south of Tampa?
( on a scale from 1 to 10) I would say 7.
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