hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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I couldn't access them either and chuck does look scary.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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Max FL winds 105 kts. in the east quad
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> How sure is everyone is staying south of Tampa?
First off, I don't think anyone can make that call yet, and regardless where makes landfall, Tampa is surely in for a very potent storm. If you live "on the bay" I'd be packing up my supply kit and preparing to move WAY inland. Do not wait, unless you have a house/dwelling you need to shore up. I wouldn't tempt fate with this one.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Frank P
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Of the 12Z model runs only 1 of 18 has the eye south of Tampa.... and 5 of the 18 have a direct hit on Tampa, with the eye just north of the Bay (worst case scenario for Tampa I would imagine)... this is the latest model data... and not a very good scenario... of course this is a dynamic situation, and things can and do change... here is the model data link for your information
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03L.html
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jaybythebay
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Mobile,Al
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Thanks, but it is Mobile Bay. Just wondering, have some property south of Panama City.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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12/1630 UTC 11.6N 18.7W T1.0/1.0 94
12/1745 UTC 30.1N 84.0W OVERLAND BONNIE
12/1740 UTC 20.4N 81.5W T5.0/5.0
94L (future Danielle) now being rated
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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Yes..looks like south of Sarasota too to me....Not a bad thing personally.
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doug
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N. O. Lurker
Unregistered
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I believe the clip you are referring to is called Ply-Lock or something close to it. I remember seeing a display for them at Home Depot some years ago.
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Ok, phil so you are saying this has winds of 135?
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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5 90 KTS 970 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
thats a 5 on Dvoark intesity scale
Dvorak scale chart
Edited by hurricane_run (Thu Aug 12 2004 07:05 PM)
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Frank P
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One thing also to factor in relative to this discussion, and Steve mentioned it earlier... it appears that has been on the right hand side of models for the past 24 hours or so, not the center, nor the left side... just another fact in trying to understand what the system has been doing, or might be doing later on... which also does not bode well for Tampa... and I always reserve the right to say.... THINGS CAN CHANGE.... and usually do with these things
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Frank P
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yeah, I think that is the name of them ... I saw them at Home Depot last time I was there.... I just nail up the wood on my house... but in the process of building some real storm shutters, a board and batten type made out of 5/4" treated pine, so I can just lock and load next time a hurricane heads my way... I''d like to know how many times I've nailed up plywood on my house...
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andy1tom
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Loc: Callaway, Florida
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south of panama city is the gulf of mexico
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks HR.
BTW, I was able to access both SSD and TPC recently, and the GOES 2 floater shots of Charley are much clearer than from . I'd say this is already a CAT III, just from appearance, but I'll defer to the experts before making that call. Either way, it's getting stronger and stronger.
Here's the link for reading the scale
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Here are the first 18Z runs I've seen. Not a good scenario.
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LMDL01.html
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Radar loops are a pain right now too. Given up on the NWS JAX site for now. I've had that GhccSat program running non-stop since this morning, but it has no problem waiting 15 minutes to get the lastest pass. I'm doing other things anyway; just found our lost rabbit ( that's not a joke Phil, it got out last night and was under the house) trying to round up our cats, and filling in the wife on the storms. I really should stop and go watch the rest of my Red Sox game (they're beating Tampa Bay no less) but all of us have got to get things done right now. Bonnie's rain has held off for the moment, not even sure how much we'll get.
If passes slightly to the east of the Isle of Youth, and west of Havana, he's still on track to do his thing. He shouldn't turn east of north till he hits the Keys lat.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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There was a lot of talk for a day or so that new models and info from planes led people to believe it might shift left of track. Remember? We discussed this..
It hasn't. If anything as stated previously...its on track or towards right of track. Some serious thinking must be going on at I am sure..
Nice to look at sat and see the eye is sort of going nw but.. whole storm is leaning nne already and well... not going to scream I storm from years back but eyes tell u one thing.. and its not what you are hearing on air.. from officials yet they decided to open emergency management offices in Miami Dade early this morning just in case.. was that part of the plan?
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Anyone who is even thinking about boarding up and needs any supplies should immediately go out to find them. They ussually sell out of a lot of items early on.
crazy weather here, tornado warnings in this county now.
Hurric
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> just found our lost rabbit ( that's not a joke Phil, it got out last night and was under the house) ROFLMAO
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Callaway, Florida
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how close is the track to the original track when they started giving them??
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