hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Your Welcome LI Phil,
I just got there to and they are clearer. I'm just wait for the 1815z floater update. To see how hat band/ boudary is reacting to Bonnie's tail .
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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WOW....
Sure looks to be a Tampa Bay disaster doesn't it... this could be really bad... 18Z model runs are clusted pretty tight too... Need to start hoping that is starts sucking in some dry air from the strong trough pushing though the GOM... but I'm not very confident of that scenario.... LBAR or A98E does not paint a pretty picture for TB does it? Also looks to be heading east of the Isle of "Yutes" and then passing over a narrow section of Cuba after... more bad news....
"any good news out there?"
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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I agree Im in Parrish too!
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Any East-Coasters planning on boarding/shuttering the windows. I live on Merritt Island (near Cocoa Beach) and figure it should be far enough west that I shouldn't need the panels, unless the path changes. Problem is, have to work tomorrow, so that wouldn't give much time...(20+ windows to cover)!
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Last few frames show a wobble to the NORTH, we'll see if the trend continues., get ready KEY WEST.
TG
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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They just issued the mandatory A, B, and C evacuation order for Hillsborough County effective at 6am tomorrow morning. For those of us down here, that's daunting. It's basically the entire bay coast all the way up to Interstate 75. That's amazing, utterly amazing.
They also said that 1985 Helena was the last time they evac'd as many people, although Tampa wasn't that big then. They've already shuffled nearly all airplanes out of MacDill AFB.
Amazing.
Londovir
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tsunami06
Unregistered
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Quote:
not going to scream I storm from years back
We in south Florida do remember Irene, the storm that was predicted to go up the west coast but instead sliced right through Miami-Dade and Broward counties.
Watching this storm carefully, as storms in the Florida Straits can be unpredictable (Irene turned northeast more quickly, Georgies turned more west, Lili went eastward suddenly).
Carlos
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Tornado warning was cancelled when it moved over the ocean. The whole state is very volatile now weather changing rapidly today. checkout this radar radar
Edited by Hurric (Thu Aug 12 2004 07:26 PM)
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bobbi
Unregistered
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sat here with this loop and paper doing degrees..can see eye enough to really follow current direction.. with eye visible cant say much and as i said.. much of the weather is leaning out towards nne which to me shows future orientation and direction
for last hour or more...been really NNW, hard to play pretend and say NW
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Weather update from Jax: We have had 9(nine!) straight minutes of thunder coming from the west. Bonnie seems to have set act 1 into motion. 10 minutes now. It sounds like a train coming right at us, the noise just doesn't take a break at all. May have too scoot offline for a little while to protect the electronics.
Those models keep putting me in the N/NE/E quads. Wish they wouldn't do that.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Any updated models out there?
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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bobbi
Unregistered
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looks like a front coming thru in south florida
bill kamal was really excellent this morning in a long interview with rappaport
gyst was a lot of questions as to how todays set up is oddly more like an early october set up not early august
he kept rephrasing questions as to whether models are able to adjust for that.. rappaports answers were that they take into consideration the current enviroment of THIS storm but .. he kept asking
commenting that with a front to the north deepening fast in october would pick a storm up from sw to ne or ssw to nne yet this is not what has been shown from current models
maybe timing off or didnt predict intensity (again, as you know who round here always says "intensity forecasting is a crap shoot")
anyone here with a good background in how much time of year gets worked into models..
help, look at radar
looks like a front about to pass with flow turning ssw/nne
comments appreciated
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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IF becomes a 'major', he will start creating his own weather and may not respond to troughs and minor fronts. IHMO, all bets as to track are off IF he is cat III near or just north of Cuba. As much as I hope the TPC is dead on target, I also know that major storms don't always play by our 'rules', they make up the game as they wish. I would suspect being a major while south of the keys would perhaps favor an eastward track. Opinions anyone?
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Sounds like Kamal was wishcasting.. LOL.. I remember living in Miami during Georges, the storm had gone west, and he kept saying it was on it's way.. So look out both him and Brian Norcross love to hype up a storm. Those two are always competing to see who will be the next weather god of Miami..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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OK.. In order for a hurricane to "make their own environment" it would need to be like a CAT 5. A hurricane can adjust the environment around them somewhat, but no hurricane can make their own environment. Thats an old wives tale..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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lizardman
Unregistered
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Eyewall now in full view of Key West/EYW long radar. Looks like ever so slightly W of due N in loop.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Vis loops, at least the last hour or so, appears to have moving NNW, if not, it sure is pronounced bobbles to the NNW... at it's present heading, it should pass east of the Isle of Yutes..... and west of Havana, who should take a pretty good pounding in the process
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Would anyone really be surprised if crossed Cuba, took a slight hook east, passed over or near Key West, and hit Everglades City, or Cape Sable near Flamingo? Somehow, even though all the models predict this and that, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. I remember Irene too well. Everyone was *so sure* she was hitting Tampa. People don't seem to realize, with a storm approaching Florida from the south, it may appear to be heading to Sarasota, but the slightest nudge can send it into Cape Sable.
Not making a forecast, but at the same time, I'm not writing it off here in SE FL. I don't see how anyone could say how anyone could say for sure exactly where in FL it will hit.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
IF becomes a 'major', he will start creating his own weather and may not respond to troughs and minor fronts. IHMO, all bets as to track are off IF he is cat III near or just north of Cuba. As much as I hope the TPC is dead on target, I also know that major storms don't always play by our 'rules', they make up the game as they wish. I would suspect being a major while south of the keys would perhaps favor an eastward track. Opinions anyone?
Heh. Heh.
I posted this last September during Isabel:
I think the most interesting thought the past 12+ hours is the realization (recognition) that these monsters can actually "make their own weather". Isabel is NOT playing on any terms but her own. Although, 's prediction that the long hoped for northward/northeastward jog is seeming to happen...finally. All I can say is I hope NO ONE feels the true brunt of this (Isabel's) fury. I hate to say (predict?) this, but I think this name, Isabel, may not be recycled in the next six year cycle.
Are you my long lost brother?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Would anyone really be surprised if crossed Cuba, took a slight hook east, passed over or near Key West, and hit Everglades City, or Cape Sable near Flamingo?
Yes!! I would!!
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