Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
If you noticed they discounted this because the hurricane was to 30-60 NMiles east of the model tracks., as well as the trough that they think will keep it from moving west.
Good point. I had actually missed that and the error. Very interesting though how just a little bit of difference now leads to completely different scenario. Like trying to throw a baseball through a softball size hole from 50 feet seems to be this forecast.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Here is the still image.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Charley is forcast to be a cat 3 at 2 am tomorrow. And that is just on the coast of cuba. (could be off its a forcast)
Forcast Tracking map
Edited by hurricane_run (Thu Aug 12 2004 05:17 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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i wish would come hit us in tallahassee bc bonnie sucked :?: 
one last warning: from here on, will be deleting all unsigned anon. posts. HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 12 2004 05:31 PM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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As of 5 pm, there is either a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning for the entire Florida peninsula from the Georgia/Florida border all the way down the east coast through the keys and back up the west coast all the way to the Suwannee River. The only exception is along the coast of Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. This certainly doesn't happen very often.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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bye bonnie. got some good rain here today (more than all july actually) but that looks to be over. really blew the intensity, but that landfall point wasn't bad 48 hrs out.
charley i'm not going to go into great detail on. lots of hype here, lots of half-truths floating around. i'll try to cut to the chase. has moved into the outflow-enhancing quadrant of the upper low to the west.. with the polar-oriented exit region for it's own outflow along the deep trough in the eastern u.s. equates to near optimal intensification conditions for the system on it's track (the mention of less conducive condtions near landfall as a last minute check). tight structure of the inner core leaves the possibility for an eyewall replacement cycle to take place if it rapidly intensifies.. as another potential last minute weakening regime.. maybe even flat western cuba will somehow put the kibosh on 's strengthening run.. but on the whole should landfall in a stronger, maybe signficantly stronger state.
as usual there is some wishcasting.. most of it from south florida.. calling for a right bend and an irene scenario. not very plausible, but i'm not ready to completely junk their ideas.. but almost ready to start pointing and laughing.
i put my crosshairs on sanibel island the other night. gonna stay with it even though the official is to the left of a lee/collier/charlotte co. landfall.
i'm going to hedge my bet that is a category four tomorrow. not necessarily at landfall, but i do think it will top out around 120/125kt. the pressure may only be down to around 950mb or so, but the tight inner core should compensate for that. with a hit/graze around pinellas county the surge and hydraulic forcing of the winds into tampa bay would make those planned evacuations look like a very good idea.. 20/25ft above msl flood with breakers and hurricane force winds on top of it all would not be a good thing for tampa st. pete. this is the worst possible scenario.. chances of it are maybe not even very high... but the emergency management isn't going to take a chance like that.
should come ashore 3-4pm or so if it chooses tampa. sarasota and the fort myers area are also in trouble.. directly or indirectly. chances up the coast are fair for major impact as well, but past tampa land interaction or shear should take some of the edge off.. a landfall up near levy or dixie county probably wouldn't be that of a major hurricane.
then northeast FL/coastal ga/south carolina get whatever is left over. possibly still a hurricane, probably a more tame t.s.
recap. you already know the drill. very likely a major hurricane will impact the west coast of florida on friday.. highest strike probability is the tampa metro area.
elsewhere in the basin. disturbance i've been agitating for is trying to coalesce near 10/40. fairly pissant now, but some global support for a weak low to form there. chances mediocre to average that we have an invest further west in a couple days.
immediate invest and -rated wave/low just coming off africa.. 94L. it's holding a 1.0 but fairly to the north.. probably going to lose convection and then struggle back up as it gets further west. chance it will deepen from the outset.. but at 14-15N latitude it isn't going to have the greatest conditions for the first couple days in the atlantic. i'd say fair chances it will be a depression by sunday or so.
won't be hearing complaints about a slow season anymore, i supppose. this is not going to be pretty.
HF 2121z12august
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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An excellent discussion, as always.
To reiterate what HanKFranK said on the previous page, for those of you who may not have read it or overlooked it...
Anonymous posts will be removed. You don't have to join (it's free and the benefits are great) but you are going to have to ID yourself in some way. We'd like to encourage you to join, because there will be times when you cannot post if you are not registered. Don't worry, you won't get spammed or anything, and a valid e-mail address is all that is needed (to send you your password). They are kept completely confidential.
That being said, this website is more than likely going to be bursting to the seams tomorrow (if not before), and Mike may be forced to go into registration only mode.
Bandwidth drag was somewhat eased yesterday when Mike was able to work a little computer magic, but it could again become an issue. Please DO NOT POST ANY IMAGES within your post, use a URL.
You guys were great today and we want to keep it that way. We've got a very serious threat on our hands but we also need to separate out the wishcasting and mongering. If you're going to state something, try to back it up with actual meterology (although gut calls work too).
Carry on...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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Well I'm in Maitland, and I just pray doesn't come over my house. If this storm becomes a Cat. 3, or heaven forbid a Cat.4, it'll cause damage unimaginable to us in orlando. We have sooo many old trees just rotting, its not a good situation.
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Derek Sutherland
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
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im living in Stuart florida on a Boat with the thought of a 100 mile error the diffrence between TS Winds And 100 mph winds And Time Just ticking Away. I live on the edge of a river that Connects to lake Ocachobee
Controlled bye Flood gates desined to dry up south florida. In this Arena a 50 mile track error means the diffrence between the eyewall crossing over the lake and unloading 10- 20 inches of rain. And the Possibility of those flood gates going open fool bore down my neck of the woods. its happend before with 20 inches and im talking 8 feet of water where my car normally sits, sea level to 8 feet on land in 2 hours. With virtually no warning, and were talking major hurricane and a storm surge to top it off.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
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and further more the trough is coming down without any sighns of stalling . And why hasent the updated thier discussion is there something that worry them im getting fed up with waiting for the damn storm to figure out what its going to do.
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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So if the trough dips further south what does that mean to the hurricane. Sorry I'm I sound like an airhead, I'm new at this. 
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Derek Sutherland
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ROB H
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Clearwater, FL.
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I have lived in north pinellas county for the past 20 years,
and have never seen such a panic situation as we have
here now, if this track verifies we are in serious trouble
as you probably know mandatory evacuations for pinellas
and hillsborough coumties are underway, we are talking
about around 700,000.00 people. unbelievable.
Edited by ROB H (Thu Aug 12 2004 06:34 PM)
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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RobH, Are you planning to evacuate?
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ChrisT
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Coral Gables/Sanibel Island
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Does anyone have an alternate link to view the latest data vortex msgs? I'm having a little trouble with delays in the /TPC sites. Thanks.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Go to atwc.org and check out Recon-Vortex Messages. They have 4 or 5 alt sites if I remember correctly.
Anonymousteve
Edited by John C (Thu Aug 12 2004 07:28 PM)
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ChrisT
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Coral Gables/Sanibel Island
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Thanks. Pressure 978mb. It noted the western eye-wall was open to the west a couple of hours ago. Doesn't appear open anymore. Hopefully Cuba will be cool with some recon later tonight.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Just wanted to report that central florida in Polk County does not look like a hurricane is coming tomorrow. It looks like a normal Sunny August afternoon. It is almost impossible to believe, emotionally. There is a light breeze no more than what we usually get from the afternoon sea breeze. I keep having to pinch myself and intellectually move myself to make preparations. It just does not look real.
I hope everyone else is not feeling this way.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Is anyone else having problems with the website with thier advisory's 5pm should be advisory 14 where is it and what gives??
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Well, one interesting note from the 5:48pm recon data run from : the eye wasn't found to be circular. It's listed as being elongated, open eye, running SW-NE, about 15nm wide and 20nm long. Worst winds found to be 82kts, which is a lot less than the 102kts found earlier. Altogether you'd think that's all good news, except the pressure is 978, which ain't good, not at all.
Interesting. Add another 31,000 people in Manatee that just got their evac orders. We're up to about 800,000 total people on west coast told to boogie out....
Londovir
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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ive heard this but no one has gone into detail
where and when...
if you heard them..post them with source
thanks
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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