LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Nothing more can be said about this storm that hasn't already been said. In an effort to keep this site moving as quickly as possible, ALL anonymous posts will be deleted. You can post without logging in, but you must id yourself.
Best wishes to any and all in the path of this monster.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Yep, 965mb with the latest recon. it strengthening.
(I'll leave this one up because you [anon] probably didn't read the above message). Next anon post gets the ax
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Aug 13 2004 02:54 PM)
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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oops thats was me
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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The weather channel (Dr. John Nese) just confirmed what everyone is seeing, some eastward movement. He stated that if you look at the last 3 hours, its moving more eastward. They said they don't see anything that will make this move anymore westward. It's starting to get picked up by the same steering current that picked up Bonnie.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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mycast.com is a great little service and one which was actually first mentioned on this site some two or three years ago. Personalized weather.
Anyway, here's the radar for Key West.
This is one scary looking storm. Hunker down all.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Morning LI Phil and thanks to Mike, you and everybody that keeps this thing going.
Sure you don't want to come on down and join the fun??
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MelbDave
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 4
Loc: St Petersburg, FL
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Can someone post the 11am update when it comes out... can't seem to get it from the site
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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HURRICANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
1500Z FRI AUG 13 2004
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER
BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.8W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 60SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.8W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 82.9W
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.7N 82.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.4N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...135NE 135SE 25SW 25NW.
 Still likes my house too much !!
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.8N 79.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.2N 76.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 46.5N 71.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
Edited by joepub1 (Fri Aug 13 2004 03:09 PM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Shaggy:
What are the different types of radar images?
Base Reflectivity
This is a display of echo intensity (reflectivity) measured in dBZ (decibels of Z, where Z represents the energy reflected back to the radar). "Reflectivity" is the amount of transmitted power returned to the radar receiver. Base Reflectivity images are available at several different elevation angles (tilts) of the antenna and are used to detect precipitation, evaluate storm structure, locate atmospheric boundaries and determine hail potential.
The base reflectivity image currently available on this website is from the lowest "tilt" angle (0.5°). This means the radar's antenna is tilted 0.5° above the horizon.
The maximum range of the "short range" (S Rng) base reflectivity product is 124 nm (about 143 miles) from the radar location. This view will not display echoes that are more distant than 124 nm, even though precipitation may be occurring at greater distances. To determine if precipitation is occurring at greater distances, select the "long range" (L Rng) view (out to 248 nm/286 mi), select an adjacent radar, or link to the National Reflectivity Mosaic.
Composite Reflectivity
This display is of maximum echo intensity (reflectivity) from any elevation angle at every range from the radar. This product is used to reveal the highest reflectivity in all echoes. When compared with Base Reflectivity, the Composite Reflectivity can reveal important storm structure features and intensity trends of storms.
The maximum range of the "long range" (L Rng) composite reflectivity product is 248 nm (about 286 miles) from the radar location. The "blocky" appearance of this product is due to its lower spatial resolution on a 2.2 * 2.2 nm grid. It has one-fourth the resolution of the Base Reflectivity and one-half the resolution of the Precipitation products.
Although the Composite Reflectivity product is able to display maximum echo intensities 248 nm from the radar, the beam of the radar at this distance is at a very high altitude in the atmosphere. Thus, only the most intense convective storms and tropical systems will be detected at the longer distances.
Because of this fact, special care must be taken interpreting this product. While the radar image may not indicate precipitation it's quite possible that the radar beam is overshooting precipitation at lower levels, especially at greater distances. To determine if precipitation is occurring at greater distances link to an adjacent radar or link to the National Reflectivity Mosaic.
For a higher resolution (1.1 * 1.1 nm grid) composite reflectivity image, select the short range (S Rng) view. The image is less "blocky" as compared to the long range image. However, the maximum range is reduced to 124 nm (about 143 miles) from the radar location
From NOAA's Questions about Radar Site
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
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I found this site for the first time yesterday afternoon and have hounding it since. I have to say that everyone is awesome, and the information has been a relief for me as a single mom. I want to know more than what the news stations are posting. I have a funny feeling in the gut about this one. hoping the feeling is just a need for food (lol) All though I am on the eastward side we are still in a "zone" were from what I have seen, a little more "jog" to the east will change how it might impact us here. Is there still a possibility that with a shift to the east that we over here could see cat 1 winds? Everyone stay safe and our prayers are with everyone in the path of this "tiny" monster.
God Speed from the Fischer family.
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hurricane Advisory Number 17
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 13, 2004
...Charley heads toward Florida West Coast...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the
Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for the Florida West
Coast from East Cape Sable northward to the Steinhatchee river. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area during the next 24 hours. Preparations
should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida and
Georgia coasts from Cocoa Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South
Florida Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including
Florida Bay and Lake Okeechobee.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the tropical storm watch has been extended
northward to Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A tropical storm watch is
now in effect for the southeastern U.S. Coast from Ocean Reef
northward to south of Cocoa Beach and from north of Altamaha Sound
Georgia to Oregon Inlet North Carolina including Pamlico Sound.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Flagler
Beach Florida northward to the Savannah River near the
Georgia/South Carolina border.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane was located
near latitude 25.2 north...longitude 82.8 west or about 145 miles
south of Sarasota Florida.
Charley is moving toward the north near 18 mph and a turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible prior to landfall on the
Florida West Coast this afternoon or evening.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb...28.49 inches.
Storm surge flooding in the Florida Keys will be subsiding later
today. Storm surge flooding of 10 to 13 feet is expected near and
south of the where the center crosses the Florida West Coast.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet along and near the Georgia
coast in the next 24 hours with lesser flooding to the north and
south.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely along s path
across the eastern United States. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods.
Isolated tornadoes are possible across parts of southern and central
Florida including the Florida Keys today.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...25.2 N... 82.8 W. Movement
toward...north near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...110 mph. Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 PM EDT and 3 PM EDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Lawrence
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Morning LI Phil and thanks to Mike, you and everybody that keeps this thing going.
Sure you don't want to come on down and join the fun??
No I can see I-4 plainly from where I am at now and traffic isn't horrible, but the eastbound has noticbly more traffic, absolutely no way I'm heading toward the west coast. In fact, in a few minutes i'm heading east. I don't like what I see on the radar.
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Thanks Steve, Much Obliged
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Well, says it still moving toward the north, Phil, can you get the 11am Discussion yet, or is it slow being updated?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Just checking in from Lakeland.....right now it's just a waiting game here. Watching the storm I think it's just wobbling east back and forth, the local mets have not mentioned any change from the Northerly movement.
Will check in as weather allows. Starting to get feeder bands and some lights winds here. The batphone woke me up at 8:00am to issue a tornado watch for our area. Scared me half to death. 
Take care all...stay safe, sound and secure.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Charles
Unregistered
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ok, the still has this thing moving N, but it damn sure doesnt look like that to me. But then again they kept sayin it was moving NNW when it was clearly moving N so
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Looks like is checking to see if the NNE motion that is currently happening is a trend... told Orange County that it looks like the Hurricane will be closer than expected. Seems the evacuation to Orlando may have actually put people in the midst of hurricane. or at least Hurricane Force winds..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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AmateurJohn
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 27
Loc: Highlands County, FL
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It started raining lightly around 10:50. It’s just about stopped now. Still practically zero wind. Went into town to get some Chinese food for lunch. Cars were lined up at the bank’s ATM. Both gas stations were pumping gas but were pretty busy. No lines, but every pump was being used. Publix closed at 10:00am. We’re on high ground so we’re not worried about flooding. This afternoon and this evening will definitely be interesting.
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Lake Placid - 27.3N 81.3W
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Hardcore
Unregistered
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MF249 M0827 MF121
Charley now a major hurricane!!! 120mph sustained gusts to 140mph per recon!!
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey mom Fischer, welcome to the site. I've been on 4 or 5 years. It's always great. Hard to say what's going to happen in Cocoa until we know where is making landfall. If nothing else, you should see some strong squalls and feeder bands (watch out for tornados).
Here's an interesting note from Derek Ortt of the U of M RAMSIS. He thinks there is an error in the 11am public advisory. He believes that the TPC purposely failed to upgrade as per ACTUAL OBSERVED RECON information. His words (paraquoted) were, 'make no mistake about it. We're dealing with a category 3." Perhaps the next discussion will address the inconsistency.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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