LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Well, says it still moving toward the north, Phil, can you get the 11am Discussion yet, or is it slow being updated?
Hurricane Discussion Number 17
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 13, 2004
Aircraft...satellite and radar indicate that remains on
track with an initial motion of 360/16. The global model guidance
is in fairly good agreement about the motion accelerating
north-northeastward during the next two days after which is
expected to become . The forecast track is similar to
the previous advisory except adjusted slightly to the right. The
forecast track and intensity is for winds near hurricane force
along and near the Georgia coast as GOES by and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued to alert to this possibility. A tropical
storm watch is also extended northward along the North Carolina
coast.
An eyewall dropsonde at about 12Z indicated that the maximum surface
winds are still near 95 kts. A closed 10-mile diameter eyewall
persists and the pressure has dropped 5 mb to 965 mb during the
past two hours suggesting that there could be some additional
strengthening during the next several hours before landfall on the
Florida West Coast. Thereafter the and other models show the
strong winds expanding on the east side of the storm as it moves
near the U.S. East Coast.
Forecaster Lawrence
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/1500z 25.2n 82.8w 95 kt
12hr VT 14/0000z 27.7n 82.6w 100 kt
24hr VT 14/1200z 31.4n 81.5w 60 kt...inland
36hr VT 15/0000z 35.8n 79.2w 45 kt...inland
48hr VT 15/1200z 40.2n 76.8w 30 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 16/1200z 46.5n 71.0w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 17/1200z...absorbed by extratroopcal low
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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First of all, thanks for this site...it's awesome!
If it is worth anything, the Kennedy Space Center is closing at noon. Yesterday it was their intention to operate as business as usual. It cost a lot of taxpayer money to shut down and it is a decision that they don't make lightly. Read into that what you might...but I believe they see a definite jog to the East which brings the East coast more into the chess match.
Thanks again...and please be safe folks!
Big Russ
Go Astronaut War Eagles
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Quote:
Its dead quiet here in Maitland, 3 miles North of Orlando. No wind at all, just dead silent. Now I know what they mean by the calm before the storm, its very errie. 
Yep, it's terribly deceiving isn't it? If you've ever read Florida's Hurricane History by Jay Barnes, then you would see that the majority of the great storms that impacted Florida before the satellite and TV era were accompanied by unusual calms before landfall.
The track looks like it has been shifted south very slightly at 11:00 AM. If another eastward shift occurs, the Orlando area would have a greater chance at seeing a period of sustained hurricane force winds.
Also...why is the intensity being held at 95 knots? I guess the pressure drops haven't equaled wind increases yet. Don't be surprised if the storm strengthens rapidly this afternoon as it approaches our West Coast. Kind of like LaDainian Tomlinson bursting towards the end zone for the Chargers...
A matter of hours now. Stay safe everyone...
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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what source is this hardcore? can you get a link?
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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For those in the Orlando area, CFN 13 has been airing all state and local briefings live.
It's great information.
Orange County Chairman: "It looks worse for Orange County now than it did yesterday" because the storm is tracking further east.
They are also asking that everyone get off the roads by 2 p.m.
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Fl Panhandle
Unregistered
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I have a sister in Orlando and i'm trying to give her info on . How many miles is from Orange County? Anyone know. She's at work and isn't getting alot of information. Thank-You so much
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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The press conference in Orange County just said that they are now expecting Hurricane force winds in Orange county now, and they are expecting Orange county to perhapes take a direct hit. Pray that this doesn't happen. 
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Derek Sutherland
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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looks to be the bullseye now 
Ft. Myers Radar link
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Charles
Unregistered
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Does anybody really believe that its still heading North? Was it really just a wobble? Maybe HankFrank was right and Sanibel is in the cross hairs
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Yep. See above post
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Longtime lurker, first time poster. Great website you guys run here. I'm checking in from east coast Florida, specifically Ormond Beach(just north of Daytona). One thing that stood out to me on the 11AM advisory was the "pull back" of the tropical storm force winds. Hurricane winds still exist up to 30 miles out, but the trop. storm winds pulled in closer to the eye going from 125 miles out at 9AM to 105 miles out at 11AM. Could this mean the eye is sort of tightening up preparing to strengthen even more? Just something I noticed. Right now it's overcast with little to no wind, but that's all set to change relatively soon. Everyone be safe out there, and keep up with the excellent posts.
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Check the Surf
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1055 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
.DISCUSSION...HAVE COORD WITH WFO MFL AND WILL BE ISSUING NPW AND
ZFP UPDATES SHORTLY TO GO WITH INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE INTERIOR CWA. WILL HAVE TO REVISIT CONSIDERING NUDGING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE
ISSUANCE OF NEXT OR POSSIBLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY PACKAGE.
Inland hurricane wind warning extended throughout all of EC Florida. Looks like we *could* see sustained hurricane force winds here. This is looking REAL bad.
I almost want to call this Floyd part two (from the west though), because we were expecting these kind of conditions from Floyd.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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LI Phil, your link doesn't work for us unless we register. Just thought I'd let you know.
NHC in the 11am props:
FT MYERS FL 86 X X X 86
VENICE FL 91 X X X 91
TAMPA FL 83 X X X 83
CEDAR KEY FL 71 X X X 71
As well as for me:
DAYTONA BEACH FL 54 X X X 54
JACKSONVILLE FL 58 1 X X 59
SAVANNAH GA 33 17 X X 50
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
LI Phil, your link doesn't work for us unless we register. Just thought I'd let you know.
NHC in the 11am props:
FT MYERS FL 86 X X X 86
VENICE FL 91 X X X 91
TAMPA FL 83 X X X 83
CEDAR KEY FL 71 X X X 71
As well as for me:
DAYTONA BEACH FL 54 X X X 54
JACKSONVILLE FL 58 1 X X 59
SAVANNAH GA 33 17 X X 50
Thanks. It's free and easy to register, but don't do so on my account (if you'll pardon the pun). It really is outstanding radar capability, updated every ten minutes.
JUST ANOTHER NOTE TO ANONS...YOU MUST ID YOURSELF OR YOUR POSTS WILL BE DELETED.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Just a couple more observations from here in Atlanta. Just got off the phone with a friend of mine who works at Universal, and she did sound quite worried about the storm as they have been following the updates all morning. She said that she was going to go an hour south to ride out the storm. From all indications and this is just purely conjecture on my part, it looks like is going to take a path following I-4, but that's my guess. Also, one of Atlanta's top rated talk show hosts, Neal Boortz, is caught right in the middle of it all. He was supposed to be in an event with Clark howard and Sean Hannity in Orlando tonight, but Boortz is caught there at Disney World. BTW, has been the lead story on all 4 newscasts here in Atlanta.
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Dr. Lyons is saying Ft. Myers now. 14' or greater locally.
tampa 9'. Thats from Lyons on .
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Dr. Lyons is saying Ft. Myers now. 14' or greater locally.
tampa 9'. Thats from Lyons on .
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hard to say what the actual distance is from the storm to Orlando. At the 10:00 position estimate, the storm was 75 WNW of Key West, FL. The 'crow flies' distance from Key West to Orlando is 273 miles (237 Nautical Miles). In my mind, that puts it somewhere around 300-310 miles, but I don't have a map in front of me with scale of inches.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hard to tell what direction 's moving, but it would definitely appear it's not due north. God help the gulf residents if this thing parallels the coast!
radar
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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AmateurJohn
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
Loc: Highlands County, FL
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We are now under a tornado warning until 12:15pm. Keeping fingers, toes and anything else crossed.
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Lake Placid - 27.3N 81.3W
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