Anonymous
Unregistered
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Im in citrus county and is making me worry, If the admin will let me I will set up a camera in my home to show the incoming weather, I am 11 miles from the coastline so it might not be a Big show lol!
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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He's a close call to still be a Cat 1 at the Georgia/ Florida line.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Check your local NWS site for the forecast. They normally update at 4pm and 4 am. I think it's local time.
Due to the circumstances they are probably updating more often.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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URNT12 KNHC 130231
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/0231Z
B. 22 DEG 07 MIN N
82 DEG 22 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2874 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 252 DEG 90 KT
G. 169 DEG 010 NM
H. 973 MB down 3mb in 1:36
I. 11 C/ 3089 M
J. 18 C/ 3086 M
K. 8 C/ NA-dropped 2C-
L. CLOSED
M. C15--3 miles smaller than last fix
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF984 0703A OB 31
MAX FL WIND 97 KT SE QUAD 0044Z. EYE BECOMING MORE
SYMMETRICAL.
Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 13 2004 03:00 AM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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If the storm goes on the "current forecast track" do not expect much of a drop in winds in Polk county. Orange county would probably be borderline hurricane conditions on the western side. Trop storm on the east side of the county. These are my guesses. I am sure MLB will update in their next local advisory. Ruskin would update Polk.
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Looks like on radar that may be weakining a bit as he's running out of room, but in about 3 hours he'll be nearing the gulf. Probably wont be rapid intensification but a gradual increase in strength until it comes toward landfall tomorrow night. Keep safe folks.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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The pressure is down more and the eye is now closed. Look at the vortex.
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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They shifted the tropical storm watch southward on the east coast from Jupiter Inlet south to Ocean Reef!!! That's got to get you thinkin. BTW, I was watching the eye on the loop. If that wasn't 355 degrees + I'm 18!! 
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Slowing in my books Is Not good, it ussually means more of quicker recurve so the track may be more to the right. On the other hand the ridge could still be holding north of charlie and may acttully be pushing back in and the trough flattens out and passes bye to the north leaving the door way open for the storm to continue west . Call me Crazy but the Water Vapor almost wants to support the idea. the southern part of the trough appeers to flattening and the front edge almost seems to have been pushed back some instead of progressing se.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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At 10:00 the weatherman on Orlando's Ch. 27 news predicted sustained winds of 40-50 mph in the metro area and 50-75 mph in Lake and Sumter with possible gusts up to 100 mph.
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UC_Craig
Unregistered
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Lots of information to process here, it's making my brain short-circuit. I wish there was something to show where it would go down to the city level in state. I live in Volusia County and i'd like to know what to expect. I've been through a few and the strong ones are not fun...
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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973 mb. Your just full of good news, aren't you.
I see a pretty good blowup coming on the north side of Cuba.
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Jim Cantore just stated at 11pm that is moving "ever so slightly west of due north"
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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Yep, the eye movement is just a hair W of Due north. For once I agree with Jim. Those Cold cloud tops northeast of Cuba will be ready to wrap into the center when he gets north of cuba. He will intensify pretty rapidly.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Thanks for the info guys. That's about what I was thinking, but I wanted to verify myself.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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the discussion aked if it was turning north prematuruly(excuse spelling) Lights out see yall in the morning.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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oops misspelling was me must be really tired.
im out hr
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Caio on that Good Night And Hope all in the keys are safe tommorow.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Went out to dinner and came home to catch update... put on radar from cuba, from key west.. a hogs breath just west of due north
no way nnw
can say maybe a frame or two nnw but...
if you put paper or even an IM box on left edge of the eye on radar it rides the IM/paper straight up...never disapeers to the left..
and why am i not surprised
i mean...knew it could happen.. hope it doesnt turn slowly to the NNE suddenly ..
also dont understand how pressure dropped from 980 to 975 steadily over 6 hours and they didnt change wind speed.. i mean not even up to like 108mph??
typical tho
anyway... watching and reading along..staring at radar
oh and they posted tropical storm watches, suppose to be on the safe side..for miami dade and broward
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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WTNT43 KNHC 130302
TCDAT3
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 975 MB...WINDS FROM
DROPSONDES AND AT THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL ARE SO FAR NO HIGHER
THAN ON THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT. THE AIRCRAFT AND LAND BASED RADAR
FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA AND CIENFUEGOS CUBA HAVE SHOWN THE 15-20 NM
DIAMETER EYEWALL SPORADICALLY BREAKING OPEN. IN CONTRAST...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...
ALTHOUGH HAS THUS FAR NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN STRONG
SYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND IT. ALL THESE SIGNS POINT TO A SYSTEM
THAT IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT
DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 90 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 340/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER.
RADAR TRACKING SHOWED A DUE NORTHWARD MOTION FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING...WHICH RAISES THE QUESTION OF WHETHER IS TURNING
NORTHWARD A LITTLE PERMATURELY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD. IS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH HAS ITS
AXIS AT ABOUT 25N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR
12-24 HR...THEN ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS BASIC SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ALONG THE SAME LINE AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR
BUT SOMEWHAT SLOWER. IT IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE AND . AFTER 48
HR...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT TO COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE AND POSITIONS OF .
WHILE IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING SLOWLY...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO GIVEN THE FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE WARM WATER AND THE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ONE
POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTOR IS A DRY SLOT WHICH HAS WRAPPED ALL THE
WAY AROUND INNER CORE. THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES TO 97 KT IN
24 HR...WHILE THE BEINGS IT TO 112 KT. THE LATTER IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE INTENSIFICATION RATE INCREASES. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALL FOR TO PEAK AT 105 KT PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...BUT IT COULD BE STRONGER. AFTER LANDFALL...PASSAGE OVER
LAND AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND EVENTUALLY
CAUSE TRANSITION.
THE POSSIBILITY OF A PREMATURE NORTHWARD MOTION AND THE FORECAST
SIZE OF THE STORM REQUIRES TROPICAL STORM WATCHES TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE FORECAST TRACK
REQUIRES EXTENSION OF HURRICANE WARNINGS UP THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.
SINCE THE REST OF THE ADVISORY WAS TRANSMITTED...THE AIRCRAFT HAS
FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 973 MB.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 22.2N 82.4W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 24.0N 82.8W 100 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 26.8N 82.8W 105 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 31.0N 81.7W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 79.4W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 16/0000Z 43.5N 74.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 17/0000Z 48.5N 66.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
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