Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Quote:
973 mb. Your just full of good news, aren't you.
I don't have any clue why, but that comment made me laugh so hard I was crying. I think it was a pressure release. A lot of conflicting emotions going on right now....Thanks for the break. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Another thing to remember, once the weather goes downhill, that's pretty much it. In a doomsday Cat V (Gilbert-esque) moving up from the south, hurricane force winds would be there hours before the IH winds. In 's case, it's probably going to be a few bands with big gusts and heavy downpours until you get into the concentric part of the storm where it's chaos. passing over an area from the south looks to be a wild ride of about 8-12 hours @ 14mph. Also, you usually won't see much thunder and lightning with a strong hurricane. But the outer bands can (and do) often spawn short-lived tornadoes that touch down for a brief time and pick back up. That's what killed all of those people in LaPlace, LA (10-12 miles west of me) when Andrew came ashore in St. Mary Parish. So definitely beware the first squall line coming through your area if you've never experienced a strong hurricane before. And I could be wrong, but I think tornaodes rotate in from the SE (any mets could correct that if it's wrong).
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Can someone explain this to me. Does this mean that they are leaning towards the east side of the forecast track or am I just really tired? (Got this from the 11pm discussion) It just seems contradictory.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ALONG THE SAME LINE AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR
BUT SOMEWHAT SLOWER. IT IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE AND . AFTER 48
HR...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT TO COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE AND POSITIONS OF .
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Eastern edge of the models for the first 48 hours then shifting to the left..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Steve,
Local TV weather radar here in South Florida just showed 4,299 lightning strikes with the bands in the keys in just the last 1 hour.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Yeah, you'll get them over water with the fringe. But I'm inland so we don't usually get the lightning. 5000 is a lot of strikes btw.
An interesting phenominon could send either way. As noted in the 11:00pm discussion, a dry slot has rotated in all the way to the core. This is a - for development. However, both Bonnie and had tended to organize a bit in the wee hours through the early daylight. Hopefully that isn't the case this time because that would mean development right on top of people. 973 is low. How low can it get?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looking at the most recent Key West radar, the eye appears to again be moving more on that NNW course, as opposed to due N
--Lou
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I would not go scrapping the now laid ideas of the for an apparent N jog.This might be occurring for simple reason possibly of the interaction with land.I tend to think of these systems as mass because they are.In fluids you treat the atmosphere as a fluid and everything has mass and some coefficient of friction.Charley over the last three hrs. has slowed down to 12mph at this rate yea could turn but I would wait till it got to the other side to post judgement.The I would have to say has had a good handle on this one.Have to give them an A up to this point.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Looks like the eye is going to go right over or just to the west of Havana just after the clock strikes Friday the 13th. Worst case scenario for them.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Does anyone know what the purpose is for turning off the main breaker to the power at your house if you are evacuating? I've been hearing all day that we should do this, but I don't understand why.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Richie,
I know you're a fanatic like me (I can't ever sleep more than a wink here or there when under a threat). But here are some good articles you might browse through if you have a chance. The first one is about Dr. John Hallet who researches the relatively rare occurrence:
Lightning Associated with Storms 1
This is a story about tornadoes in the right front quadrant:
Tornadoes & Hurricanes
And finally, here's the answer from Research Met Robert A. Black as to why lightning is so infrequent in storms.
All the articles are short and hopefully will provide everyone (including me) with a bit more edu-ma-cation on the subject.
Why so little lightning in storms
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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To protect your box from a power surge when power is restored.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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lived here all my life so i've been thru a few... like steve says generally the lighting comes with the first bands of the hurricane. (grew up on the coast and still live there so don't know if it is just over water) after that just rain usually sideways because the wind blows so hard.. also just about all your shrubs die. my grandmother said it was the salt water rain.. course she predicted hurricanes from her corns hurting or the way the sea gulls acted. (btw she was right alot of times)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I think lightning is very common in the bands far removed from the center, but very uncommon near or in the eyewall.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I think that's what they mean based on the happy faces of the local mets here in Lakeland. They're all getting a little goofy.
This is such a weird feeling that I am having now. I'm almost releived to finally know where it's going to go. Even though it's near me. When I was at the boys' football practice tonight, the weather was so beautiful that I could not imagine a hurricane coming through here tomorrow. Everything seemed brighter for some reason. It's a hard thing to put into words. Maybe I'm just weird. 
That being said, I have some other news to pass along: apparantly, Tallahassee forgot to mention to the toll booth workers NOT to charge the people evacuating. It was bumbper to bumper for almost 4 hours. Then there was one toll road where they only had 2 toll booth lanes open instead of 4. I would have rammed my 'Burb right through those barricades, believe you me.  Finally, the Governer had to get on TV to tell the toll workers they were not supposed to charge (I didn't know they had TV's in the toll booths, did you?  ).........and they wonder why we had problems in the 2000 Elections????? Sheesh. 
My NOAA weather radio is working just fine. My husband nearly had a heart attack at 4:40 or so when they issued a Flood Watch and Hurricane Watch/Warning. It has a very LOUD TONE. At least he has a sense of humor...he came outside and said, "Hey, Catwoman, the Bat Phone is going off in the Bat Cave."
Does anyone expect the winds to catch up with pressures at the 2am advisory? Are they going to jump another 15 mph or more? Or are they waiting for it to cross over Cuba?
To the moderators: sorry if I am going off topic a little bit; just a wee bit stressed and venting it makes me feel better. Thanks.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by Colleen A. (Fri Aug 13 2004 03:55 AM)
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TropicsGuy
Unregistered
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Looking at the latest KW radar, heavy rain squalls are approaching the South Florida mainland.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p37cr/si.kbyx.shtml
TG
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Colleen:
Same story, different night, eh? Tracks going back left and back right all day, trying to settle down. It's back over Lakeland's head once again. I guess, as some people said, that's a good news-bad news sort of thing. Bad news is direct overhead hit, but good news is it should go by fast, rather than force us to sit through an entire ring of hurricane force winds.
Hang tight, going to be interesting night/day tomorrow. Hope this apartment holds up to the abuse.
Londovir
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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maybe i can get away with off topic because its slow right now but i don't leave because of that reason.. i would have road rage... the one time i left (opal) i went to paw-n-laws house and it was about 11 miles inland. took me about a hour to get there with all the traffic leaving town. don't know if the winds will catch up with the pressure but they will increase once it gets back in the gulf... is the front that is suppose to make it curve back east still doing what it is suppose to? it looked like it was still way north to me.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Can you believe Accuweather still has this storm off shore, and are predicting only 70 mph winds on West Coast of Florida.. They have been showing that same old tired track for a couple days now.. Even channel 6 in Orlando was showing it for the past couple days including this evening. I wrote them an email and complained that they are sending the wrong message to their viewers.. No response..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Nothing like a little stress breaker. ED please grab the "Catwoman" post for the next edition of weather snickers.
Throwing your breaker outside at the meter also prevents you home burning should flood water short the receptacle boxes out. Power company usually pulls the meters if they have time, but I don't think they have enough staff for this one. Don't pull the meter yourself! It's very dangerous and deadly!
Keep the links coming Steve.
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