Anonymous
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warren madan on the weather channel said the front has stalled? what does that mean for our storm
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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To Lake To Ho Kissimmee,
your comment about local weather on TV. I think 9 does the best followed by 2 and then 6 a distant third. Very disappointed in six.
I'm afraid if the storm is indeed going East of previous track say over lakeland more toward Orlando that you'll see winds well above hurricane force.
I want to add just a word of commentary since its late at night.
I'm pretty much a life long Florida resident. The only real hurricane we've had in Central Florida was Donna some 44 years ago.
Although I enjoy weather and tracking the storms, the fact that one is coming over my roof tomorrow night is at least a bit unnerving. It's one thing to talk about them. It's quite another to experience one.
Sorry to be off topic a bit, please forgive me.
I'm both excited and nervous about . You always expect the storm to miss you but this time it's going to come right to my area. As we've been saying for years, we wer overdue.
Firiday the 13th will be scary indeed.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
What happened to CAT 3?
I feel like its already a cat 3 . Kind of weird that we saw the pressures fall most of the day with out the winds ever being bumped up .
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Was that the inland warning or the coastal warning? What I got was the High Wind Warning for Inland Counties....I'll try to find it.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I think the reason the winds were never upped was given by the , and was basically along the lines of "well, all of our planes couldn't find any sustainable winds at that speed, so we aren't upping it." I agree to some degree - I've kept up with the recon reports, and the planes simply haven't reported more than around 97kts most of the time, which is why they've kept it around 105mph.
I'm keeping a nervous watch on the recon data, waiting for the plane to start sending back data. They've sent out a RECCO report, but the winds are only 20kts, and I know they aren't in the red zone yet.
Londovir
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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there are just sooooooooo many warnings posted
whole thing seems surreal, look at radar (just w of north) and look at ir... all headed up into keys and dade...
wish i had a radar with a good overlay of havana
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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I don't know what that means. It may mean that it may go further north, may cause the storm to stall. I have not heard that on any of our local stations yet.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well eye now quite clear on short range radar from key west. Looks quite impressive. Looks to be moving north or just a smdge west of due north. Of all things NWS Tampa's radar has gone down and will be down until about 10am mabe earlier, power supply burned out.
Otherwise I'll give updates throughout the day on obs here in st.pete.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I agree with the pressure vs wind curve.
Quick research revealed that Andrew had :
1200 25.8 68.3 981 70 kts
1800 25.7 69.7 969 80 kts
on August 22,1992
0600 29.2 91.3 955 115 kts
1200 30.1 91.7 973 80 kts
1800 30.9 91.6 991 50 kts
On August 26,1992
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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sorry its not a cat 3,,,YET!!!! presures from 980mb down to 973mb average out to a general 85-95mph system. 105 is generous actually. To get to a Cat 3 pressures need to be down around 962 or less.
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wheatfields
Unregistered
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Am wondering what the chances are for Gainesville to take a hit with . I have two kids at college there with my grandchildren and am concerned.
Thank you!
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_east.html
rolling eyes
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Looks like the eye is exiting cuba!!!! here we go....
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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The GOES satellite is serving up some really good imagery, I'd say the eye is about over the exact middle of Cuba right now. Easy to see the eye against the land. Not to mention you can grab a pretty decent time amount (hours), and zoom right down to the island.
It's one of the greatest triumphs of the Internet age that I can look at an image taken by a satellite in space only 10 minutes before. Yes, it's terrifying having the huge storm bearing down on us, with heavens only knows what power and devastation, but in a day and age like this, I feel just a little better knowing I can fire up my computer and pull satellite imagery out of space rather than have to go by an NOAA radio broadcast.
Okay, done waxing philosophical. Here's the GOES link again for those who don't know it by heart:
GOES Satellite Imagery
I'm heading off to sleep for tonight. Good luck to all and God bless. Will be up in about 7 hours to begin a really, really long day.
Londovir
-------------------- Londovir
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Wxwatcher2
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Ref Gainesville, a lot depends on the exact path the storm takes but in general look for it to be a windy rainy night in Gatorland.
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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I found it:
Quote:
Urgent - Weather Message National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL 1156 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2004
1000- Hardee-Highlands-Polk-Sumter- Including The Cities Of...Bartow...Lakeland... Sebring And Winter Haven. 1156 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2004
...Inland Hurricane Wind Warning In Effect From 10 AM This Morning To 10 AM EDT Saturday...
The National Weather Service In Ruskin Has Issued An Inland Hurricane Wind Warning For Sumter...Polk...Highlands And Hardee Counties.
Winds Will Increase Rapidly From South To North On Friday...With Some Areas Receiving Gusts Over 40 Mph As Early As 10 AM EDT As The Outer Rain Bands Move Through. As Approaches The Coast In The Afternoon...Winds Will Increase To 50 To 60 Mph With Gusts To Hurricane Force.
An Inland Hurricane Wind Warning Is Issued When Sustained Winds Near Hurricane Force...Or Frequent Gusts At Or Above Hurricane Force...Are Expected Within The Next 12 To 24 Hours.
...Damaging Winds Expected...
Most Mobile Homes Will Experience Moderate To Substantial Damage. Some Of Poor Construction Will Be Uninhabitable Until Repaired. Houses Of Poor To Average Construction Will Have Damage To Shingles...Siding...And Gutters. Some Windows Will Be Blown Out. Many Lanai Screens And Pool Cages Will Be Damaged. Unfastened Home Items Of Light To Moderate Weight Will Become Airborne...Causing Additional Damage And Possible Injury. Dozens Of Wires Will Be Blown Down. Local Power Outages Will Affect Entire Neighborhoods.
Many Large Branches Of Healthy Trees Will Be Snapped...And Rotting Small To Medium Sized Trees Will Be Uprooted. Dozens Of Palm Fronds Will Be Blown Down...And Minor Damage Will Occur To Citrus Orchards And Newly Planted Lowland Crops.
&&
See Hurricane Local Statements Under Wmo Header Wtus82 Ktbw For More Information
For Additional Weather Information...Check Our Web Site At Http://Www.Srh.Noaa.Gov/Tbw (lower Case)
Not very promising, huh?
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Pressure is but one measure of a storm's intensity and is not always correlated with the system's wind speed. Pressures are higher over the western Caribbean than normal, and per the , this is why 105mph winds can be sustained with such a storm. They won't falsely say winds are higher or lower than they are, as there would be too much backlash from the general and scientific communities.
Charley looks to be about halfway across Cuba and should re-emerge in the Gulf around or just after 2am. He's taken a little wobble west over land, but it's not significant right now and a more general view of the track over the past 6 hours is preffered - i.e. NNW. The eye on satellite seems to be holding together over land, and Key West radar confirms this. Don't see any reason why some strengthening isn't possible overnight during the diurnal convective max. Waters are extremely warm around the Keys, running near 90 in some spots.
Recon will not be able to give a vortex report until after the entire center is over the water once again; can't drop a dropsonde while it's over land, particularly over Cuba! Even if it gets there before then, the recon won't be able to transmit a vortex report for another hour or two.
Charley is a compact storm and track errors will be critical when it comes time for landfall. The circulation envelope is large than with Bonnie, however, meaning I can't see the shear it will eventually encounter having nearly the same effect on as it did on Bonnie. BTW, it's worth noting that the cyclone phase analyses from the 18Z on Bonnie (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase) show that it made landfall as a cold-core low after having undergone transition prior to landfall. That's consistent with satellite and surface observations.
Bottom line on - strengthening is possible starting in about another 2 hours once the entire center is over the water, the full turn to the north (and NNE) has not yet begun, and residents in the warning area need to be on guard for anything. I am really surprised that there is not at least a TS warning north of the Suwannee River (where the hurricane warning abruptly ends); NWS/Tallahassee feels that any impacts on the NW side will be minimal and are putting heavy faith in the track (plus probably don't want to keep up the extra staff needed with watches & warnings in the area after just finishing up with Bonnie), but considering the large difference a small shift to the west will cause in the ultimate landfall position, I completely disagree and surely hope they aren't putting themselves in a very precarious position. I don't think it will get up there, but better safe than sorry.
I've targeted somewhere a bit north of Ft. Myers for a landfall, based mainly upon model consensus as well as the predominant upper steering pattern. When Bonnie came in, it lifted the Florida part of the trough up ever-so-slightly, which I think is allowing to track a bit further west than may have originally been anticipated. But, as the trough builds back in further as Bonnie weakens and races NE-ward, will eventually follow suit and turn. There's no good place for a storm like this to make landfall and I hope everyone up and down I-75 - especially west of the interstate - from Ocala southward are in a safe place, because it's only going to get worse (a lot worse) before it gets better. Flooding and surge will be the biggest impacts; unsecured structures will also see heavy wind impacts, though these will be dependent upon how much the storm strengthens.
I've got to turn in for the night, though, as I'm still really drained after chasing Bonnie. Stay safe everyone and if you have to get out, do so asap.
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Anyone have any idea how big/wide the eye is now?
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here's a great link that I use sometimes. This is the Key West Radar site. The colors are a little different from the ones you are used to seeing.They have enabled looping for all of the products but the VAD wind profiler.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?BYX
BTW: I took the base refl at 2.5deg and estimated the height of the eye area to be between 43,200 and 57,000 ft using a nexrad calculator. It probably goes beyond that altitude.
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B. Miami
Unregistered
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I went through Andrew, and this is nothing at all like Andrew, BUT, conditions are VERY VERY BAD, wind is howeling out of the South, terrible T-storms pounding us and power is out in Miami Beach -- South --- Caution to those on West Coast --Brace yourself if you haven't already, this one is BAD
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