danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Some interesting questions from Clark's post.
Where is Recon.
How much difference between the water temp at Key West and the Gulf Stream off of Jacksonville to Wilmington. Shouldn't be too much difference this time of year?
I'll go with Clark on the intensity. Remember Alex.
I'm not convinced that the models look at the sea temperature as much as they look at the upper air.
Those that can, get some rest. Plenty more to come in days ahead, it appears.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>I recorded a barometric pressure of 29.50 as passed 8 miles East of my Apopka, Fl location.
The Sentinel's website has a couple of nice cloud shots from Apopka (worth a look).
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Temperatures from the buyos from the Natl. Data Buoy Center (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov) show that water temperatures are fairly steady offshore at between 80.5 and 82 degrees, getting cooler north of Cape Hatteras. They are also slightly cooler a bit closer to shore. Interesting to note that one of the buoys off of NC failed due to Hurricane Alex!
Not sure where recon is - a flight was scheduled to take off at 2145z and investigate between 0z and 6z, partially over land, but that has not happened. The next recon, over water, was scheduled for takeoff at about 0645z; I think this will probably be the next flight into the storm. The investigation is supposed to have fixes at 9z, 12Z, and 15z - so it may be overnight before we get another read on .
Models do look at SSTs, but remember that most of these are global models and not tropical models. The oceans aren't as important of a consideration in these models, nor are there many sources of data over the waters (due to the inherent lack of observing sites), meaning these observations and forecasts may not be so good. No global models can pick up a hurricane - the storm has to be put into the model. But, track forecasts are usually decent and intensity forecasts from the specialized models are usually decent as well, yet there remains room for improvement.
Rest is definitely a good thing, and I think I'm about to go get some myself. Good luck everyone, and here's hoping Earl isn't long for the coast either. Something tells me it is, however.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here is a link to the Amateur Radio observations in the central FL area. APRS equipment. Some obviously failed during the storm. I didn't check them all so some may have dead links on them.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/aprs_observations.htm
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Earl I'm afraid is going to be another Gulfer.  I don't see it pulling a by going over the FL Peninsula from the West side (Least I hope not for the people's sake down there!) That was rare for August.
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Well, I havent posted at all today or tonight. Basically I've just been watching this storm in awe. Kind of at a loss for words most of the afternoon/evening. I went to school this morning excited I'd be able to come home to a fairly common Cat 2 possibly a Cat 3, But I wasnt sure due to the interaction with Cuba if that might have screwed up in some way. 8 hours later and boy was I wrong. I never expected a Cat 4 out of this. I think it caught all of us by surprise. Im just really hoping there isnt to many casualties. From all I've gathered, the area around Punta Gorda, Sanibel and Captiva Islands are basically destroyed. Some of the video I've seen has been amazing. Im starting to wonder if this may cause more damage than Andrew. I mean took a path from the coast up to Orlando, all the way to Daytona Beach, 2 of the bigger cities in Flordia had direct hits. I think the damage estimates will start near 20 Billion....In Flordia. Thats not including the damage it could do to South Carolina and North Carolina. Especially if it strengthens anymore. I dont know though. Tonight has been unbelievable and its true that you can be the biggest, most hardcore weather fan in the world, and think you've seen everything but this just seems to tip the scale ya know. Almost surreal as if its just a game. LOL I dont even think Im making sense now. Well Im gonna be up at first light tomorrow looking for damage reports and pics. I pray that everyone in Flordia and The Southeast coast is safe. Talk about a Friday the 13th to remember for sure.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Just did a quick straight line plot on from Boca Grande to Daytona at A1A intersection. 158 nautical miles. He actually tracked more than that because the path wasn't a straight line.
Andrew, from A1A and I-395 to Naples was 89 miles.
If someone can give me better points i'll run them.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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URNT12 KNHC 140521
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/0521Z
B. 29 DEG 53 MIN N
80 DEG 56 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2989 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 225 DEG 79 KT
G. 139 DEG 30 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 9 C/ 3072 M
J. 13 C/ 3079 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 1/3 NM
P. AF980 1003A OB 02
MAX FL WIND 79 KT SE QUAD 0512Z.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Very early morning all,
Hoping all in the entire sunshine state made it thru (relatively) unscathed. This was definitely one for the record books. Realizing many of you are (at best) without power, I send my thoughts and prayers out to you and your loved ones. They're gonna be talking about this one for a LOOOOONNNNG time.
Looking down the road, Danielle has formed and Earl is right behind her. Let's hope spoke for Earl and he'll just be a rainmaker with some light winds...I wouldn't wish what happened yesterday on Saddam, much less a redux.
Right now, my neck of the woods is receiving Bonnie's remnants and s' are scheduled to give me more tomorrow...with a chance of TS strength winds. Given what the folks from FL just went through, I'm sure anyone of you would take it...TS warnings up to Sandy Hook (NJ) and TS watch through NE. This one is going to impact the entire eastern seaboard.
Once again, my thoughts and prayers go out to all affected by this monster. hasn't finished dishing it out, but thankfully, not on the scale that those in Punta Gorda et. al. saw a mere 12 hours ago.
To anyone who reads this and has power...back up or restored, godspeed. Morning light is going to shine on a whole world of hurt. As long as you made it out alive, that's the most important thing.
Peace and be safe,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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AngB
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: S. Merritt Island
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Here in South Merritt Island, FL...power was out for 6 hours. We had some pretty good winds but not too bad. Power came back on about 4:00 am.
Edited by AngB (Sat Aug 14 2004 09:12 AM)
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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At least Danielle will be a fish. It is forecast to continue turning in a northerly direction, so at the moment it looks like it may take a path ala Jeanne in 1998.
Hoping that eveyone affected by escaped with relatively few effects.
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RichD
Registered User
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Posts: 2
Loc: Wimbledon, London, England
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Does anybody know of any websites where all the strongest wind reports have been collated?
Many thanks
Richard
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I have just gotten back from walking the streets right around my house in Casselberry, 25 miles N of Orlando. Damage is quite severe, with trees down everywhere, some landing on roofs. Quite a few house lost their shingles. I have attached a couple images of the damage
-Lou
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Here is a tree on a house
-Lou
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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This tree has blocked the street
-Lou
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Here is some shingle damage to a roof on my street
--Lou
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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good pixs.... I bet there are zillions of trees down in the state of Florida.... MSNBC reporting a number of people killed who were living in a trailer part where the eye wall went inland (Punta Gorda which has been devastated), they are providing excellent coverage of the disaster.... this is going to be a really really bad I''m afraid.... looks like some of the people south of Tampa just did not evacuate...
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Recmod, nice photos, I guess...reminds me of Gloria up here. I'm sure what happened in Punta Gorda reminds FL residents of Andrew and Frank P of Camille...maybe not quite on that scale, but pretty damn bad, nonetheless.
Once again, hoping everyone is alive and safe, that's the most important thing. Clean up will take a while, but at least it's over for you. Earl...don't even want to mention that for the moment...he's down the road.
Whenever anyone is able, back on their feet and secure, love to hear storm stories, see pix, whatever. Regulars check back in when you can, one by one, and let us know how you did.
Wonder how ED is doing too.
Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Track of future Hurricane Earl not looking too good, that backed up by this in the NWS Melbourne Discussion
" BE KEEPING AN EYE ON TD 5 AS IT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. TPC DAY 5 POSITION
PLACES IT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH COULD PULL IT NORTHWARD. "
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Here in Polk County we got winds of approximately 75 mph. It lasted about an hour. At my house we have one dead palm frond down and some leaves off the oak trees in the back. The green naval oranges hung on to the trees. I had 3 rain guages out in the yard and one of the three made it through the storm with 2 1/2 inches of rain in it total from the entire day. Lakeland was on the outer fringes of the western wall according to the rain radar. I am sure those who were in a wind tunnel effect suffered more than we did. Glad it was no worse
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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