Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Looking at this Visible loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
Do you think there is circulation there?
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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Is the wave that is about at 45w10n going to slam into Nicguraga(spelling) or head wnw near barbados? On the loops I can't really tell which way it's going.
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I looks like a piece of energy is splitting north over the Yucatan...might be something to watch
floater 1
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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I think you mean Venezuela/Columbia Lonny. Wave axis is actually to the ENE of the convection.
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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Oh yeh . My geography is not good. Any models picking up on that wave? Not that any models picked up on Charlie. I was reading in the discussion that a shortwave trough was pushing down from NW africa. That should inhibit some waves till they get farther west. 
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Not to get in the way at all, but how come the wave is actually increasing over land when it is technically a tropical wave? I thought tropical waves died over land.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I would like an answer to that question too. However, I think, the answer is the reaction to the heat of the land such as in afternoon thunderstorms.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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met
Registered User
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Posts: 8
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look at meteosat photos a strong disturbance has come off. and there are alot more ready to come. afraid its going to be a very dangerous CV season.............
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The tropical waves themselves weaken over land; however, they provide enhanced energy and a focus for convection to develop along the axis, even while over land, as a result of increase convergence (of the winds) at the surface. Couple this with instability derived from daytime heating (think sort of like the seabreeze, albeit maybe not quite the same effect) and ample moisture from the nearby bodies of water, and you have an increased likelihood for/strength to the convection over land.
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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usually it's august 20th or so that we go into an active spell, as per the recent years where the atlantic THC is in overdrive. this year has been different so far (five storms between july 31 and august 13).. but with the arrival of the traditional time for things to start going off, the current wave train, occasionally nosediving , and near-future arrival of should get things started right back in a matter of days.
details some different from yesterday.
danielle is shearing out, going into loiter mode. was on to something after all.. a compromise between it and the other globals leaves us with a recurving, weak system... that may want to drift around. the upper low to the northwest is neatly cut off and progged to retrograde east under a blocking ridge up to the north.. with a weak frontal tail low coming into the area from the west, and danielle's entrained energy.. there's a shot at some hybrid development, though models aren't jumping the gun on anything.
wave near 40w skewed by a trade surge, with the convection front and the now low amplitude wave tailing it. still a bit of convergence ahead, so some chance at it perking back up as it gets further west.. globals no longer predicting much, but some older runs did follow the recent succession of events more or less.. so it's still worth attention. don't know if that call for an invest by saturday is going to pan. and if it does there's always the fact that new storms entering the caribbean at low latitude tend to be typecast as speeding open waves.
higher amplitude wave crossing the coast about now.. expect 8pm twd to make mention of it's signature. it looks decent, but indications of it's mid level intensity will be more telling than meteosat IR stills.
earl went splat.. score one for the globals. those early recon fixes with the small center and the steady acceleration should have clued me in earlier.. but of course i'd just watched charlie ride the same wave to a different future and all memories of bonnie.. and chantal and jerry in 2001.. were on the back burner.
anywho, a break in the action as the heart of the season draws nigh.
HF 2244z18august
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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>>atlantic THC is in overdrive
Surf's like way up dude. Think I'll go make a bloody mary in its honor.
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I'd like to add that the NAO has flopped back negative after a temporary return to neutral. The ensembles predicted neutral then positive, but this valley seems to be a bump in the road. Last NAO tank brought us Alex, Bonnie, Charlie, Danielle and Oil (/St. Bernard Parish speak). It will be interesting to see whether or not we get development in the next day or two. After that, NAO forecasted to positive.
Here are the 4 month daily values
And here are the ensemble forecasts and verifications
Steve
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Maybe this will help some folks out!
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED 18 AUG 2004
TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF T.S. EARL...IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 KT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS INLAND WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 88W-91W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
30N FROM N FLORIDA TO E TEXAS. RESULTING SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ARE FROM THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE
MOSTLY TO THE REMNANTS OF T.S. EARL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
80W-82W DUE TO AIR MASS HEATING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR
22N77W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 30-50 KNOTS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
ON THE SURFACE...STRONG EASTERLIES DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FROM
8N-18N BETWEEN 82W-85W...ALSO DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF T.S. EARL.
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER TRINIDAD AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
55W-63W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N63W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
N OF 15N BETWEEN 56W-70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 63W-80W.
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Steve,
Great links, thanks! Looks like things should settle down in a day or two, we'll see.
Bill
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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Thank goodness Earl is just a wave...My family and I wave goodbye to him!!!...We just regained power here in our part of Orlando and we want NO more tropical ANYTHING in this area for many years to come!!!
We have read and followed the posts on this site for several years (as well as wished for storms to hit here)...NO MORE!!!..We will still read but we will no longer wish for a storm that has the potential to do this type of damage. .We've now lived through a major storm and want nothing else to do with one...What a mess we have...
We'll still be here on a daily basis...however, we'll be "wishcasting' the storms the other way!!!
k___g
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1234
Registered User
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Posts: 7
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I'm glad that Earl is also dead or it would have been a busy weekened on the central gulf coast
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Sissy
Registered User
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Posts: 7
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Hi Everyone,
Sissy here reporting in from Orlando...My mom has her power on today but mine is still out. My area was hit fairly hard, but I am grateful to have a roof over my head. My prayers go out to Southwest Florida.
Sissy
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Cutting and pasting discusssions and outlooks is OK if only you can follow up with a layman's interpretation. That is what this site should be all about, don't you think?
yeah, it helps. if there was an active storm i'd be more nitpicky. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 19 2004 10:00 PM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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The reply was from me, i forgot to log in.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Hi Sissy! Glad everything is OK and you got your power back. Still teaching in O-town?? Things are quiet right now in the Atlantic, but we still need to keep a watchful eye. Hope you guys don't see another threatening situation there. Here in Palm Bay we got gusty winds but no damage as the windfield stayed in northern Brevard. See the east coast as a problem later on.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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After reading through the discussion on the NAO and its tilts I was wondering when the arrives into the basin and can anyone tell how the NAO will be then? And, give any vague timing on it please.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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