HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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6 PM Eastern, Thursday
Frances became a hurricane today, and is forecast to become a Category 3 over the weekend. Most track models have decided that the effects of the upper trough in the central Atlantic will be modest, and that the storm will be moving westward under the ridge in the western Atlantic during the coming week. People are already alluding to historic storms, but remember that there are usually systems like this every year and few make the history books. That said, I would be paying very close attention to it leading up to Labor Day weekend. There is also a chance it will come close enough to the Lesser Antilles to foul the weather up this weekend.
A low pressure area is consolidating off the South Carolina coast today, and some forecast models are now developing it. This system is forecast to move very little over the next couple of days, and will pose a threat days ahead of ' advance if it can organize. Another wave on the same old frontal boundary that has spawned the low off the Carolina coast is looking suspicious south of Bermuda this afternoon.
The days leading up to Labor Day promise to be active ones for storm trackers. Keep an eye on the tropics as August is on the wane.
HF
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Edited by John C (Thu Aug 26 2004 06:15 PM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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Frances is still getting better organized, and even there is no invest, so is the system off of the Carolinas. Could we have Gaston by Monday?
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Keith234
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All of a sudden everything has become very active in the Atlantic, Hurricane Fances, the low off the southeast and another devloping low by bermuda and there are more good waves coming off africa, it all seems so overwhelming, and seems like this will be a very active sept. I only perdicted seven storms by the end of August but that might be to low.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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WeatherNLU
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Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Well the models are starting to get into some agreement over a track for . I still think the forecast is a bit north of where it might be. I am sticking to 60W before 20N. track has it crossing 20N at around 57-58W. Really, it matters little, because in that timeframe, will certainly shift back nearly due west as she will not be able to make any poleward progress after 96 hours. This is going to be a sticky situation for the US. Unfourtuantely, will make a US landfall.
Edited by WeatherNLU (Thu Aug 26 2004 06:30 PM)
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Cycloneye
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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For those who may not know where I am I live in Puerto Rico.The key for this island and the other ones in the northern leewards and the virgin islands will be when after it moves WNW it will bend back west.I hope it does that after it passes 20 n to then not see the most bigger effects but mother nature has it's own thinking so I will watch what happens with the track in comming days.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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rickonboat
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A few more major hurricane strikes, and the property value of the coastal areas will plummet, since the insurance companies will either go bankrupt, or issue exceedingly expensive policies. At the very least, they will realize that the effects of hurricanes are NOT going to go away.
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ticka1
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Loc: Southeast Texas
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Quote:
For those who may not know where I am I live in Puerto Rico.The key for this island and the other ones in the northern leewards and the virgin islands will be when after it moves WNW it will bend back west.I hope it does that after it passes 20 n to then not see the most bigger effects but mother nature has it's own thinking so I will watch what happens with the track in comming days.
C-eye - stay safe and keep us updated on how affects you. We will all be watching.
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LI Phil
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>>> For those who may not know where I am I live in Puerto Rico.
Luis, you funny. It lists your location right next to your post 
All kidding aside, I don't think you can breathe easy until the system has actually tracked west of PR. However, based on the current modeling, you should be spared most of the bad weather.
BTW, watching , and we have had four hurricanes in the Atlantic thus far...tying the record for the most August hurricanes in the basin. Food for thought? Could Gaston break the record?
People up and down the East Coast really need to think about their preps...Said it before and I'll say it again, anything the models are indicating past 120 hours should be considered speculation...and the 72 hour forecasts still have a fairly large margin for error.
Frances is going to become a major hurricane before the weekend is over...perhaps some similarity to other canes from oh, say, 1992, 1999 & 2003. Names being withheld to protect the guilty. You know which ones I'm talking about.
Frances is a classic CV storm...whether she makes the classic CV track remains to be seen. However, from the models and the discussions, it appears will strengthen, possibly considerably, for at least the next 48 hours. Upper level conditions are favorable for development. She should continue to track northwest for at least the next day or two, at which point we can probably expect some due west movement...that's when things get dicey and it will become time to fish or cut bait. By 72 hours, we should know, with a fair degree of confidence, whether the area from Hattaras south to Miami or Hattaras north to Nova Scotia may be the preferred destination.
By the end of the weekend, the trof is forecasted to back off and the ridge will build in...hence the westward component. At such time, ' future will become more clear.
Few things are a certainty now, but I'm fairly confident this is an East Coast hit. I'm also fairly convinced it could be another major hit...god do I hope I'm wrong with that. A couple of posters, Clark being one, mentioned they just don't have a good "feel" about this one, and I totally agree. There is no meterology involved there, just knowing what these long tracking CV storms are capable of. Got a bad feeling about this, and I've had that feeling ever since 96L was first classified.
Anyway, we've got 10-13 days or so before we receive ' answer to "Where are you going to go?" so it's wait and see time. In the meantime, we may have Gaston brewing off of the Carolina's (though to my mind, Gaston should be a GOM storm, destination n'awlins...or as Steve informed me...new oar-leeens).
Everyone start getting more sleep than usual...Frances may promise some looonnngg nights ahead.
Be safe everyone,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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rickonboat
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when the moderators are uneasy about this..I suppose it means we are all in for a ride next week. The is really firing up, and I think the strength might be more rapid than they anticipate. Doesn't matter though, cause it IS a long way off. Plenty of time to fret and worry...probably too much time.
No one has mentioned the possibility of it entering the gulf...or ripping a swath through Florida, and then hitting us...but we all know a double whammy is a distinct possiblity.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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worried is a bit of a stretch on this end. i've got reason to believe the picture we're currently seeing is going to get a lot more complicated. there is threat potential.. but the pieces haven't come together yet, and we need a few more of the big ones before the worry starts here.
i'm nowhere near 100% on what's happening just off the coast in my home state. that could easily be a weak, clueless low, or get organized and spin up into something bothersome over the weekend. right now i'm favoring the latter, but not confident in any sense. if either the low southeast of charleston or the low south of bermuda develop, it will greatly confuse the picture upstream of .. the ridge in the western atlantic will not be a solid driving force but frayed at the edges.
frances of course has major longtracker written into it's future, but that's nothing special per se.. it is forecast to track close to the islands at a westward trajectory.. and many of those threaten the east coast when they do that.. but by no means do all. is the crystal ball we gaze into for answers, and it still alternately recurves it and drives it straight across florida.. or takes it into the carolinas. until it stops changing its mind every run we won't have the foggiest, other than just a deepening storm with threat as a caption. assuming an inertial path off the forecast track, the storm will be near the east coast around september 4th.. so until about monday or tuesday we won't be close enough in for the models to start drawing a convincing picture. for this weekend, watch and wait... unless you're in the virgin islands and the storm makes a habit of staying left of the forecast track.
just to be presumptive, yes, there is a good chance gaston pops up somewhere prior to the closure of august. just to add fuel to the fire, staying negative almost all august has brought some significant warming to the western pacific, and the atmosphere should be transitioning to a weak el nino as autumn sets in. the breakneck pace we've set in august may be clipped off sometime in october.
HF 0004z27august
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Clark
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My local chapter of the AMS featured one of the preeminant experts in tropical meteorology speaking tonight, Dr. T.N. Krirshnamurti (he of the Superensemble, among many other things). The five day forecast is basically the same as the 's official forecast...by the 's doing, not 's...and his "subjective" forecast is for landfall in the 8-9 day time frame in the Carolinas.
Take it for what it's worth.
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GuppieGrouper
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I don't wish a land fall on any one but maybe by that time it will have decreased to a "used to was" since it is insisting on early intensity now.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Keith234
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Frances looks impressive, and an eye seems to be trying to form. I bet that the intensity will be increased to 90kts and even higher if a visble eye forms on radar by 11PM. As other people have said, this storm is giving a certain feeling that this will cause some damage but who knows where, the models are all over the place. It may hit land hopefully not.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LoisCane
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Loc: South Florida
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Good post Hank. I think its all very premature today to say what might do in 4 days when there is a situation off the SC coast ..as well as the ULL to the east of the SC system and to the N of . If she continues moving more west north west than northwest with all that going on..then we will have a better clue. But the steering conditions have not jelled yet in my opinon. Her path is not very set in stone.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
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We don't have ten to thirteen days.. I don't know where you get that number and we only have those days if the storm slows down as it is forecasted to do. Until it does... we don't have that much time. And...if the ridge did build in as some models say.. it could speed up and we'd end up with less time.
timing is as always everything
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LI Phil
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OK, Roberta, I'll speed up the schedule...10 days, from whence I originally posted, would be next Saturday...lets compromise and make it 8 days. That's next Friday early morning, or late Thursday. I don't think landfalls until Labor Day. That's when we can, with confidence approaching 75%, predict a landfall. If you want my best guess...right now...gotta go with Hattaras...poor piece of land sticks out like a sore thumb into the Atl. But then, I could say in January we'll get a Hattaras hit, and I'd have been correct three times already...
Lets say we "only have" five days...which we don't, I couldn't tell you whether this is a Miami or Portland (ME) hit. All I'm saying is that the whole eastern seaboard needs to watch this, but at 10 days out (my call), we'll know within 200 miles north or south, the expected landfall. If she's faster, then she's faster... I just know my CV storms, and that's my time frame.
If it's a Hattaras hit, I don't want any credit for the call, just as I don't want any grief if it tracks into the GOM...ATTM.
All I'm saying, again, is that anyone with interests on the East Coast should carefully monitor ' progress.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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Frank P
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I posted on Tuesday morning that based on current position, speed, strength, model runs and climatology, I gave the system about a 50/50 chance for either fishing or affecting the .... for the past two days everything has consistently shifted west.... this is still NOT etched in stone by no means, but I'm starting to up that probability that someone will experience a close encounter of the most unwelcome kind for the , if not a direct hit....
critical to me will be the strength of the Bermuda high at the time interval when enters the Bahamas.... a strong ridge would not bode well at all for Florida, especially from the SE coast to central area, and a strong ridge could also eventually send this thing into the GOM.. similar to a Andrew track....a weaker ridge, then the track goes more north, GA, SC, NC... pick em.... strength of the ridge will be a such key factor.... ridge falls apart..... then we might all be OK... .not betting on this one at the moment..
also another wild card factor which could play a hugh role in all of this....will there be any strong fronts work down off the SE coast.... a timing issue.... does slow down at any time... which could allow time for a front drop down, although not that likely this time of the year.... something to consider ..... and could draw more to the north.....
a lot of unknowns.... still... but needless to say it will be watch by a plethora of people, and after , I would expect areas under hurricane warnings, if they come to fruition for the US, will not get the apathetic treatment that Charles received... if this is a major hurricane threatening to strike the you will see the largest evacuation ever undertaken... so if your in the zone and the evacuation order is given... a word to the wise... don't wait to long to go....this should be a most interesting week for storm tracking... this has been a most interesting hurricane season to boot...
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meto
Weather Guru
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here in fla. mets are saying ridge will build farther west into fla. this would not allow to go north. turks and cacois in bahamas will be in danger from this major hurricane. then central and western bahamas. and then fla.
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h2ocean
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Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Still way too far away to say for sure...by the weekend hopefully we will have a better handle on this. I took the hurricane panels down last week wondering if I really should. I will be mad if I have to put them up again! I have had panels in the last two houses I have lived here on the East-Central FL coast in the last 10 years and have only had to put them up three times. If I have to do it twice in one season...geez! My last place wasn't too bad but now I have over 20 windows to cover....sigh. At least was a practice run for us...just some gusts in the 50 mph range here.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Okay...I see the lows. I have watched them for a while tonight between the football game and IMs.
I think the timing on the ridge building in is off.. I currently see evidence that the ridge is beginning to build in. If that is happening (spend more time on water vapor and ir4 and less time on model runs) ...then she won't have much of a nw component and if that is the case...
the models you are watching will move more to the left soon
my thoughts... if you watch a wide loop you can see where the system moving east thru tennessee towards the atlantic where another arm is reaching west. The lows have lost color while this has happened and if that area moves east faster it will clear out and stop whatever is happening off the coast of the Carolinas. IF... lots of ifs here.
We are going to be doing a lot of watching next few days.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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