meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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this hurricane may create its own enviroment. ive heard this will be a strong ridge. and extend into the souththeast. maybe a degree or 2 north but not much. it could turn north and split middle of fla. wonder what 1935 would have looked like on satt.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
NO area forecast this afternoon.....hmmmm
THE TRACK OF THE VERY STRONG HURRICANE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WHICH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AFTER DAY 7...NEXT SATURDAY.
Well Sir has gotten their attention ..... as I'm sure its going to get quite a few of the different area's long term forecast's attention..... you can't rule out the GOM at this time... maybe later in the week, but right now you can't rule out anything...
True enough. The just sent this exerpt: THE RUNNING TRACK ERRORS THROUGH 28/18Z ARE
44...71...AND 104 NMI AT 24-...48-...AND 72-HR...RESPECTIVELY.
THESE ERRORS ARE HALF OUR AVERAGE ERRORS...AND ARE BETTER THAN ALL
OF THE COMPUTER MODELS...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THEREFORE
...WE HAVE A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN OUR FORECAST TRACK...WHICH
REMAINS BETWEEN THE MODEL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UKMET MODEL TO
THE NORTH.
which to me says they are now pretty sure of themselves and apparantly taking the pretty seriously as a solution. Maybe it is time I start to 'buy-in' to that myself. I'll admit, I thought the Floyd scenereo was most likely, but I'm now less sure of that....'bout to be convinced otherwised.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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They should give a name to these storms such, like supertyphoons in the western pacific but more like super cyclones. This storm has un-limted potenial right now and is preforming exterme cyclongensis, very interesting. This system could easily break through any ridge, expect the semi-permanent.
It's got a name-Frances. I'm not so sure that the 'retirement' thing wasn't a hoax, as I've not been able to find any backup--James88 is always by the book, so if he posted it, I'll take it as gospel for now. However, we may be retiring for other reasons than the French Government's request.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Aug 28 2004 07:48 PM)
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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While it's only a theory, with some plausible basis in fact, when these storms get this strong, they create their own weather.
Rick....me thinks we've had this discussion before...remember and the old wives tale thread....I'm still on the old wives tale side of that belief but darned if I can figure *what* path will want to create for itself 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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meto
Weather Guru
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floyd was pulled north by a trof.looked at extended outlook for usa. and it shows dry par tly cloudy for north usa. and isolated showers in se. there arnt any trofs. or cold fronts coming down late next week. this looks to be close to Andrew and 1935 hurricane paths when they were going thru the bahamas.
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Maitland, FL
Unregistered
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This monster looks perfect on the satillite imagery, its beautiful infact. It's amazing that you love seeing a hurricane form, but you switch over to hating it as soon as it heads your way. I hope it doesn't hit in the middle of Florida, not sure if my house will be here anymore. A Cat. V is a unimaginable thing unless you've been in one, which I haven't. Hopefully I won't have to have my experience next weekend. 
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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This monster looks perfect on the satillite imagery, its beautiful infact. It's amazing that you love seeing a hurricane form, but you switch over to hating it as soon as it heads your way. I hope it doesn't hit in the middle of Florida, not sure if my house will be here anymore. A Cat. V is a unimaginable thing unless you've been in one, which I haven't. Hopefully I won't have to have my experience next weekend.
I have: Camille. BIloxi and Gulfport Ms were changed forever. It is starting to look like the closer you live to Miami, the worse your chances may be for escaping . It is *way* too early to predict landfall to be sure, but at the moment I'm not seeing any reason to doubt the 's path and by extrapolation of the chart showing the forecast wind coverage, S Florida will take the brunt but T.S. winds could include as far north as Orlando. Way too early to worry, but plenty of good reason to restock the batteries and other hurricane essentials.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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As the sun is setting we will catch the last glimspe of on visble imagery. This storm has grew a huge amount, and will continue to grow. In regard to the forecast, I don't think meterologists (mid-latitude) can predict if any cold fronts will be coming down to the se in 7 days, or later so we don't know if it will be a Floyd situation or not. This is a storm of a decade, or maybe a past storm of a century, the future may hold more new storms of this mangitude so be prepared.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Looking for cold fronts is easy! Go to one of your northern maps of Canada, or the Pacific coming from Alaska. Any fronts that might be available will be coming from there. I am going to go with . At about 60-65W and approximately 20-22N, there is a swirl of an upper level low. Its located between the new invest and . I think that No Gaps is thinking that this will nudge the cane towards the right, I am going with that notion while I go to the store tomorrow to restock my hurricane supplies. Fortunately I did not need a battery or an extra container of water, but this time, I am not seriously considering no impact if The hurricane were to come inland at Ft Lauderdale, or Vero Beacn, We saw what it did to the opposite side of the state when came in,.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Interesting day in the tropics. turned IV, Gaston got named and is probably headed for hurricane status tomorrow daytime, and 98L (or whatever it is now) look to be on the way. I wish I could cut and paste all the chaos Bastardi's got up toady. He's touched on everything from a triple pin-wheel solution to a westerly trend in the models to missing the US to the east. There are a lot of options. Great stuff and well worth a 30 day free trial even if you don't renew.
I'm still thinking South Carolina with Gaston (pretty evident). I originally had it going in as a potentially strong tropical storm. Though it could approach hurricane status, my hunch is that it gets up between 55-70mph before landfall. It's also doing a good job of chilling the waters off the Carolinas' coasts which could be key in the future should follow my idea and head for southern North Carolina. TD #8/98L or whatever it is is probably coming west with the ridge but at a farther north lattitude. I can't say if it will make landfall, play fujiwara or become absorbed into a frontal trof and become . Interesting week ahead. I predict lots of people find ways to steer the storm in their own direction.
Welcome back Robert. And rickonboat, I like your solution as usual. One of these days.../pinkfloyd
TPS
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Johns Island, SC
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A few days ago I was sitting in my office, checking the long range radar and noticed a nice little low sitting off of the coast of South Carolina. Also, all of this talk about growing toward hurricane strength rather rapidly. Now, I am sitting in Charleston watching Gaston grow toward hurricane strength and grow toward a CatV. Watching the sun set on was rather ominous as I began to wonder what tomorrow may hold. It will certainly be windy and rainy here. Hopefully, we will escape without to many problems. I also hope that Gaston can upwell enough cold water so that can not do what Hugo did 15 years ago (suddenly boom just before hitting south carolina). Enough cold water on the surface could be the difference between a CatIV or V hitting the coast and Cat II or III hitting. From a pure storm perspective, is a good looking storm. However, I am praying for anyone that may be in her path (including my own family and my sister in Florida).
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Last two recon vortex fixes have reported eyes with Gaston, first an open circular eyewall of 40 nmi., now a closed (with few breaks) elliptical eyewall of 38 - 45 nmi. in width along its axes. Estimated extrapolated pressure is down to 994mb, and the eye is beginning to appear on the infrared and visible satellite imagery. A nearby buoy on the west side of the storm reported a 1000mb pressure a couple of hours ago. The storm, sitting over the Gulf Stream, is certainly intensifying, even if it doesn't have a classic look to it on satellite. Max flight-level wind of 60kt was found on the SW side, kind of surprising since that is the weakest side of the storm, but things have probably changed on the E side since recon was in there 2-4 hrs. ago. See no reason to shift the landfall pattern with the storm pretty much on track.
Frances - don't think I need to rehash anything everyone else has said. The next two days will tell us a lot.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Maitland
Unregistered
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Looks like some of the models are taking a little nudge to the north. A little nudge here might be a great distance by the time it gets closer.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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I have to wonder what kind of influence the fast westward moving tropical disturbance south of Bermuda will have on Gaston? Appears to be DUI of Gaston more and more. Could make for a flooding heavy rain event over the Carolinas.
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Storm Cooper
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It does seem that Gaston will reach Cat 1 at least in the short term.... as for I can't add anything that has not already been said except my concerns grow for south FL as time goes on. If "wishcasting" worked I would see some spun fish on this one but it seems this may be close... still time to prepare and for things to change.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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There is no time like the present for everyone along the east coast, especially in Florida, to get their preparedness plan ready. I plan on doing all my shopping and preparations for the possibility of this storm tomorrow. We all know it is much harder during the work week to do this. After seeing , I think this storm will cause a huge panic on the entire east coast of Florida come early and mid week. Hopefully, she will turn out to sea and not bother anyone. Our local West Palm Beach tv station showed 2 possibilities. One , she heads west across South Florida because of the high pressure and two she follows a weakness left by Gaston up off the east coast of Florida.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Maybe we can call on the "god" of opposites. IF we all go out and spend too much money on hurricane supplies, get whipped up into sheer panic state, begin evacuations today, and clear out all the gasoline, candles, ice and outdoor cooking equipment, tents, tarps and what have you say, by Tuesday, then and maybe only then will catch a clump of dry air and deflate like a balloon. Just hoping!
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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Having just been through Hurricane <one of the million or so, caught off guard, in the Orlando area>, we have NO desire to go through Hurricane unprepared. Even though Hurricane is at least a week away from any type of landfall in the , we will be prepared by tomorrow for her arrival...wherever that may be...still a long way off but, not looking good for Florida...
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Mike has put up a new thread...all new responses should be directed there.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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