meto
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 140
|
|
frances is exploding. she is rapidly intensifying. the eye is in the center of the .....very scary pics. she very well could become the most powerful hurricane in this part of the atlantic. the pressure is now in the 27....im afraid she's a very strong cat. 4 now. a 5 down the road. goes12 has the pics......wow...
|
rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 90
|
|
I'm not even noticing Gaston much. Gaston is just gonna cause a rainy and wet period wherever it goes...unless it stalls out there. If it doesn, rapid building is certainly not out of the question. Gaston has already built to near hurricane strength, and few thought that might happen.
Frances has as good a chance to get to a biggee soon. It will be interesting to see how long can stay at this level. I had heard of a "life-cycle" on the bigger canes, and watching this might make us take a little credence to that theory.
Moving just fast enough, and over open waters...watch what happens if it kicks more west. Then the old theory of "making it's own weather" kicks in. The upper level high it builds strengthens, and it becomes somwhat impervious to anything in its way, except happless land masses....like Mobile, for instance....oh,, well, first will punish MIami with cat 5 gnashing of the teeth.....then loop to Mobile as a docile category 4...or perhaps....graze the keys...and then loop toward New Orleans, and wipe that city out...
this year looks like it might punish the insurance companies...
a real widow-maker
|
Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
I don't think she'll be the strongest hurricane in that part of the ocean, because then she'll have to beat 888 milibars remember Gilbert? And that would be crazy.
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Couldn't leave for the beach...damn weather...can't live without it!
This WV loop ought to put the fear of god into every resident on the east coast...While it's only a theory, with some plausible basis in fact, when these storms get this strong, they create their own weather. Look at outflow...blowing the dry air away...holy S--T! I got a feeling that she's gonna blow right thru any ridge that may be in her way and take the path of least resistance right to the coast. Good god this is one strong storm. I don't toss around "CAT V" casually, but if I were a resident of the Bahamas, I'd be on the first plane out of there. For those Bahamians who can't afford to get away, they better add another couple layers of mud to their huts...
I hope no one scorned , cause hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.
Edit: Rick, didn't read your post about "making it's own weather," just saw it now. You thinkin' what I'm thinkin'?
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Aug 28 2004 04:39 PM)
|
meto
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 140
|
|
gilbert did not get that low until it was in central carrib. this is in the atlantic. and it reminds me of gilbert very much.
|
MikeG
Unregistered
|
|
Cat 4 Hurricane! winds are up
|
meto
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 140
|
|
you can see just how dangerous this hurricane is by the satt photos. it is a classic c.v. hurricane. winds prob near 140
|
Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
|
|
Geez Rick can you cool it just a bit. While I can appreciate what your saying, I think most folks would just as soon take a bit more serious approach to about now. A lot happening on the tropical scene almost hourly now and some observations on what is happening and not big time speculation on what coulda mighta happen might be more reasonable.
Hurric
Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Frances officially a CAT IV, Hurricane watches up for SC with Gaston.
Hurric, that just our Rick...let him go...one of these years a CAT V will end up in Mobile Bay and then we can all look back fondly and say...that sumbitch was RIGHT. Until such time, it's just funny.
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
|
|
Do you know how many days Isabelle maintained cat 5 winds?
I know she didn't "wind down" like exspected.
|
rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 90
|
|
Course, now that is so strong, look for another eye replacement cycle...at least one or two more, and she will also increase in overall size. Additionally, one might surmise the models don't deal as realistically with a cat 4-5 cane, since they probably don't understand all the data, rare as they are. My gut feel is that the general wnw direction, as I see it heading now...will not vary much. I could be dead wrong, cause I am a real novice. Just remember how "straight" a path GIlbert and Andrew,....the biggies....tended to run.
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
Well, the French scorned - they didn't like the name, asking for it to be retired. It was agreed that this would be the last time, and boy is this one going to go out with a bang. The 5-day track is scary, placing it in the central Bahamas as a 125-kt hurricane on a beeline for Miami in 7 or so days.
(FYI: the official track, almost since the beginning, has been following the Superensemble nearly to a T. If I could get on campus to take a look at it right now, I'd expect more of the same.)
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
|
|
Phil, You would think he'd be loadin up the boat and headin south to Panama about now instead of playing on the net.
Hurric
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Yo Rick, my good neighbor to the east... as I've said numerous times, this is going to be all about the ridge of high pressure that will be steering this monster... you're gonna need something to make this beast change, weakness in the ridge, front, something... if the ridge holds out to be as stong as most of the models make it out to be, then this thing is not going to pull a Floyd... and Fl is right in its path, maybe down the road the models miss an undetected weakness in the ridge and slips through, and we get the north component, very possible, maybe.. .... another wide card.. Gaston should be well out of the way and if anything might help pump up the ridge reinforcing that wnw track down the road..... eventually its going to turn NW then N, where, is the million dollar question... or perhaps a 40 billion dollar question if this hits as a Cat 4 or 5... and that's still a big IF
|
Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
|
|
Well I Crawled away becuse of phil, but i will also crawl back for this storm. Phil I did not major in english so please exuse me if my spelling is not perfect. water temps in the bahamas are 30 - 32 degrees celsius. Lets not forget its 7 days away (7) A lot can happen joe dose not have a clue but he hints @ carolinas. But If it does enter the bahamas it will hit florida and lets not forget 1935 labor day hurricane should things pan out as forcast today 888 and 180-200 mile per hour plus are not a far out possibility.
Robert...I'm not trying to drive you or anyone away...it's just that Mike & John have established a few simple rules. Play by them and you're always welcome to post here. Cheers, LI Phil
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Aug 28 2004 07:44 PM)
|
rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 90
|
|
....eyewall seems 50% larger...heading wnw
|
ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
|
|
I agree - the eye has been steadily growing through the day, and taking a more westerly component in movement as far as I can tell by the grid lines.
|
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
|
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Just incredible.
The storm basically fills in the box.
50-55 and 15-20
What is that 310 square miles?
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
NO area forecast this afternoon.....hmmmm
THE TRACK OF THE VERY STRONG HURRICANE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WHICH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AFTER DAY 7...NEXT SATURDAY.
Well Sir has gotten their attention ..... as I'm sure its going to get quite a few of the different area's long term forecast's attention..... you can't rule out the GOM at this time... maybe later in the week, but right now you can't rule out anything...
|
Ricreig
User
Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
|
|
Quote:
another wide card.. Gaston should be well out of the way and if anything might help pump up the ridge reinforcing that wnw track down the road..... eventually its going to turn NW then N, where, is the million dollar question... or perhaps a 40 billion dollar question if this hits as a Cat 4 or 5... and that's still a big IF
The solution http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_p06_l_loop.shtml is starting to look better (or worse depending on where you live, than it did this morning. I think the is starting to think so also as it is now showing a track S of the UKMET which had been almost neck and neck with the official NCH track.
-------------------- Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
|