MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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 7:45PM Update
Hurricane Warnings are now up for the South Carolina coast as Recon has now found 65MPH winds in Tropical Storm Gaston, and is expected now to strengthen into a hurricane before landfall sometime late Sunday.
Original Update
Two Storms, TD#7 has strengthened into Gaston, still meandering off the South Carolina coast, and recon found stronger than anticipated winds, so Hurricane Watches have been put up for the South Carolina coastiline.
Hurricane is now a Category 4 Hurricane still moving westward, the National Hurricane Center's forecast track puts it into the Bahamas mid week, so folks along the southeastern Coastline and Bahamas will need to pay attention to the system.
More to come later.
Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models
Gaston Models
All model "Spaghetti" for from hurricanealley
All model "Spaghetti" for Gaston from hurricanealley
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Storm Cooper
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Gaston is growing up....
REPORTS FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT GASTONS MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH
AND GASTON COULD LIKELY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING
THE COAST LATE SUNDAY. COMPLETE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN AN
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT 8 PM EDT.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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LI Phil
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Well well well...
Hurricane WARNINGS are now up for SC. Gaston may just ramp up onto a weak CAT I. ...can't add anything other than what has already been said...I think we really need to hold off on the potential landfall "guesses" until Tuesday...hell...she won't even be in the Bahamas by then.
Be ready, be prepared and be wise.
Robert, I made a comment in the last thread at the end of your post, but welcome back and you're welcome to post here. Mike & John have established a few simple rules...play by them and we're cool. I'd really rather not edit anything, so feel free to post but just make sure the post is kosher. BTW, are you psyched for the surf later this week or what?
OK, we've got one monster a week away and another threat in Gaston, and a possible third ("Hermine"?) down the road (the Bermuda puzzle). This is going to be one hell of a stressful week for a lot of people, so keep up the great posts and enjoy (???) the weather.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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DMFischer
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Loc: Palm Bay
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I was pondering....How many surfers become storm watchers..or visa versa...after all canes spawn some nice waves.
Also, since I have your attention, NOT that it could happen, but, what if Gaston and headed the same way and meet, would that be something like the "perfect storm" scenerio?
Thanks
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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zacros
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Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Quote:
BTW, are you psyched for the surf later this week or what?
Just spoke with a buddy that got back from beach (Sullivan's here in Charleston) - shoulder high in the sets. Looks like tomorrow will be blown out )to say the least), but I know Folly is pushing head to overhead. I am 4 months out of knee surgery (ACL) and wishing that I could enjoy the waves week a little more than I think I will be able to.
Parts of hurricane season I love (waves) - other parts make my stomach churn (landfall).
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VolusiaMike
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Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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I was a surfer years ago and learned to watch the weather for changes in the conditions. That experience comes in handy as I am now in Emergency Management for a City in Volusia County Florida. Regretfully, I have been very busy lately...
Michael
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javlin
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Phil seems the solution starting to possibly be the strong sceniro.The synoptic pattern is what some of the mets are looking at and that these can be fairly accurate that many days out.At least that is just of the conversation I got over at S2K.The synoptic patterns are basically using what we talk about having activity in the Pacific we look for something in the 10>14 range in the Atlantic.Please correct me if I am wrong.Still learning.
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Frank P
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Speaking of surfing I still have a vintage 1970 Hobie Cat surfboard hanging up in my garage... been there done that... check out the 06 forecast from hurricane alley... wow...
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06L.html
GSF and UKMET also don't bode well for S FL...
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LMDL04.html
then again for every model that show S Fl there are others that show something more to the north... I still don't see the Floyd scenario right now... maybe it will come at the 11th hour and save the great state of Florida ... maybe not
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Storm Cooper
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Hey Frank P, maybe time to put some wax on that board  I have not said much on the models yet but I direct my attention to the UKMET. I think it has the grasp on for now. Just gut more than anything. Things probably will change a few more times before the bell.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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WXMAN RICHIE
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Hope it's not following the UKMET, it shows going right into the exact same area of Dade County that Andrew did. I guess tomorrow night at this time the 5 day point will be right over Miami if all things stay the same.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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LI Phil
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>>> Phil seems the solution starting to possibly be the strong sceniro.The synoptic pattern is what some of the mets are looking at and that these can be fairly accurate that many days out.At least that is just of the conversation I got over at S2K.
Well, if S2K said it, then it's as good as done. NOT. For all the folks in FLA, I sure hope this recurves, but right now, that doesn't appear to be the first option. Ne'er the less, these CV monstah's want to recurve...will that happen??? Don't know and won't know for at least three more days. Of course, if it does recurve, then I'm somewhat under the bullseye, so I don't know what to think...or say...All I guess there is left to say is be ready...be smart...be safe.
Come Tuesday, well, then we'll have a better handle on things.
For now,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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zacros
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Loc: Johns Island, SC
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When is the next recon flight scheduled for Gaston?
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Phil, What do you make of this latest (1800z) loop? It seems to have moved it's track N a bit actually touching S Florida rather than S of Key West like on the OOz run. Also, maybe a tad East. Is the starting to agree with the UKMET do you suppose?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
Gaston appears to be 'on track, on target'. This makes me wonder, how many major hurricanes have made landfall in the same state in one season previously? How many named storms have done so in the past?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Frank P
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Coop, we get a Cat 5 in Biloxi and I'll be able to ride that surfboard right out of my garage as it will get about 5 feet of water in it right off the GOM (Camille put 22 feet where I live on the beach, and 25+ just to the east of the eye in Bay St. Louis MS (with her 190 sustained winds).... not counting on that to happen with , or at least certainly not hoping, but as everyone else I'm going to monitor this thing and make plans as necessary.... still could go NORTH as some models want to take it....... however, I did start restocking extra supplies today, this time of the year you need to be prepared.... if not , then something later.... I am not going to fight the masses and lines.... hey, the GOM is hot as hell and anything gets cranking could make for another major player down the road..... what a event next week will bring with this storm... if things continue to go as forecasted..... we'll see
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meto
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francis may turn around the west side of the ridge after it has come into fla. right up the middle of the state. or into the gulf after crossing statethen turn back.if ridge is strong and into the s.e. like i heard today. it will not be able to turn north. until it gets on other side of the high.floyd was curved off with help of a trof, there will be no trof in south this time.
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LI Phil
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Richard,
You are asking the wrong person, unfortunately. Although, I agree the has been behaving unusually well this year. I still think is going to "stair step" for the next day or so...that's why no point on the EC is out of the question until Tuesday...However, if my home were in Miami, I'd have my disaster kit ready and the car fully gassed up. It's weird, even up here on Long Island, I went to Costco (huge giant company for bulk purchases, and they have for sale, a terrorism kit...very similar to a hurricane kit...damn near bought the thing, just in case.) So, while it won't make you feel better, I'm ready to roll if decides to do what long-tracking CV storms like to do...turn north.
Just be ready to roll and keep watching the coast...if they tell you to leave...get the hell out of there.
Pray for our neighbors to the south..the Bahamas. It's damn near a given they're getting a CAT IV early next week.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Spent a good part of the day going over old storm tracks from a great book a good friend sent me. Historical Climo Series. As wonderful as playing with unisys online (and others) its not the same as a book you can flip back and forth and absorb the info better. I think.. good book, good friend. And...this is what I have come up with...
Following certain parameters...
Finding years with storm tracks through the S Carib.
Finding years with a hit on Florida west coast.
Finding years with sw to ne oriented hits on S. Carolina/Ga region
Finding storms in the current area (or extrapolated might have been before sat imagery)
This is what I find most interesting.
1871... storm in late August..
Comes in through the islands and makes a nw curve up over... into GA
That year features two NW florida hits but higher up...
1885... storm shows that it formed north of PR but there is no way of knowing if it started earlier. Shows a ridge in place and storm takes a sudden turn up and off and barely touching the Florida coast and coast into South Carolina.
That year had a storm come across Cuba into the Tampa/W Coast area as well as several storms fly through Ga on their way back out to the Atlantic from the Gulf. Though we didn't have much of a Gulf season and that one did.
1893... a Year no one wants to repeat. Ever especially in Ga/SC.
A storm going NW through Florida out thru GA to ocean and a storm from a similar place following similar projected path but turning in the Bahamas up the Florida coast and slamming into Ga/Sc region. Bad storm. Killed a lot of people. Infamous in that region. Acutually had two similar storm paths both hitting SC after heading towards Florida with a hard right turn.
1899
Storm went through the islands... moved up David like but went into South Carolina after a strong hard right turn. Also fetured a storm going through W Florida.
1937
Storm comes towards Florida from SE at a cord close to where could be tomorrow or the next day. Moves around a ridge and ends up pulling nnw up towards just north of the Cape.. say Daytona.. That year featured a storm moving across FL after a hit near Tampa.
1960...
Donna.. any "up and over the island" track reminds us of Donna.
1964
Dora... Dora came in higher than is but did take a path similar if a high builds in..
And features Cleo that took a path lower and came up from a much lower position than where is so..discounting but mentioning. More concerned on Dora track though that is very different from current thinking so..not really a big possibility.
All in all 1899 and 1893 are the two years that I think most reflect this year.
There are many years where a storm threatened from a similar place but I tried to choose years which had tracks that I thought this storm is and could continue following with similar other aspects.
Personally.. think it makes a hard right just before South Florida.. closer than Floyd. Worry more on say WPB to Melbourne in that turn but think its very possible a track similar to the infamous 1893 storm could occur.
Take care... I wish everyone here lots of luck.. we'll all need it.
Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Storm Cooper
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Frank P, just wax to maintain value and hopefully not for that actual use! I feel all of us on the GOM coast are ready and waiting... hopefully. I also agree there is a chance for the north turn.... it will do it sooner or later but now would be a good time. Just in case all please be ready.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here's a link I use for comparisons. It takes a while to get familiar with it.
Just use "last extent" for the last map.
Tracks by every parameter!
BTW- It gives the category you select and all above that category.
Broadband/DSL best for "All years" loading.
http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 29 2004 02:40 AM)
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SC Bill
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: South Carolina
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Been a rather eventful day here in the South Carolina lowcountry. Watching turn into a monster, Gaston churned up out of nowhere to everyone's surprise (at least to anyone's surprise who only watches ) . . . whew, time to go to bed.
Then loiscane/bobbistorm, whom I believe I remember from eons ago on an aol hurricane board, had to put year 1893 on the table.  Beaufort County, SC did not have a good year that year. I will private message you, my friend, when I can't sleep tonite . . . not from the alternately gusty then eerily still wind, but rather from the thought that will follow in Gaston's tiny footsteps with another one for the record books.
Let us all hope there is yet a way that is remembered as the disaster that might have been.
Good luck to all.
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