anony
Unregistered
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YOu  mean shift left I take it??
sc
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 90
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Frances is moving west, or I am blind. A good 3-4 hours of this, and the models will have to re-adjust. If it holds for 24 hours or so, we can definitely expect a U.S. landfall.
25 years ago, we got hammered by hurricane Frederic here in Mobile....
Anyone else see this definite heading of due west????
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Yes, my bad.... that's for the correction... I updated the post.... Heck, last night I referred to as "Sir".... and she a "Lady" .... sleep deprivation can cause delineriouness and retardation.... I'm a good example of that... 
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I'm glad this site is back up as well, Lois. Here's a fairly interesting statement from NWS discussion this afternoon (Melbourne office):
THU-SUN...FORECAST IS VERY HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND SPEED OF
VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE . LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK CONTINUES TO
BRING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN FL
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS EXACT
FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THE AVG TRACK ERROR FOR DAY 5 IS 325 NAUTICAL
MILES. NONETHELESS...AS EXPECTED HAS BENT MORE TO THE WEST
TODAY DUE TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF IT. THIS RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO STEER W/NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEN
POSSIBLY WEAKEN WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE N/NW MOTION. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THE UPPER RIDGING ERODES...IT COULD TURN TO OUR
EAST OR BRING IT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BREVARD COUNTY AS THE 12Z
UKMET AND DO. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW OFFICAL FORECAST WHICH
BRINGS ONSHORE NEAR JUPITER INLET. PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL
FL SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
Does the coordinate tracks beyond 120 hours with the NWS?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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I think over the past several hours it has averaged out to just north of due west... best guess around 280 degrees... but I have not checked in the past 20 minutes for an update... .will take another looksee... regardless, I think it is tracking south of the projection model, for the time being
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Redbird
Unregistered
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How does this compare to Isabel from last year? What is keeping from doing the same track? Lois this is for you.
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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They were almost right on with their 11 AM pressure estimate. Winds not up there, though, max flight wind 97 kt, but in the 11 AM discussion they did say that 115 kt was probably a little high, but they left it there.
URNT12 KNHC 291936
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/1935Z
B. 18 DEG 47 MIN N
55 DEG 14 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2685 M
D. 55 KT
E. 230 DEG 075 NM
F. 301 DEG 97 KT
G. 207 DEG 009 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 10 C/ 3023 M
J. 20 C/ 3076 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/7
O. 0.2/2 NM
P. AF861 0106A OB 06
MAX FL WIND 97 KT SW QUAD 1933Z.
Bill
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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I agree with you on the recent track and I think she is becoming stronger now also.
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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It's still a 115kt hurricane. Note that they went into the SW side of the storm first, the weakest of all four quadrants of the system. They'll find higher flight-level winds with subsequent vortex messages, and the concurs (thus the 5pm 115kt intensity).
We've got Hermine now too, making it the 8th storm of the season. Advisory isn't out yet, but the 5pm Gaston discussion references it picking up Hermine in the 48hr time frame. (Edit: now the advisory is out, 1008mb/35kt. Calls for strengthening to a 45kt storm before becoming absorbed by Gaston at T+48hr.)
Tropical storm watches have been issued for some of the northern islands in advance of as well.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 29 2004 08:52 PM)
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John C
Unregistered
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Sorry for the site going down, We are trying hard to figure out what is going on besides all the hits.
Please be patient the site may/will go down periodically so keep trying.
John C
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Redbird
Unregistered
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I thought it was my net connection that was flaking. I will keep checking this site as it seems to have a lot of up to date info. 
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MikeG
Unregistered
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The 8 of the Season
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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...And yet another tropical storm in August...
Satellite images indicate that Tropical Storm Hermine...the eighth
of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season...has formed in the North
Atlantic. At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm
Hermine was located near latitude 32.4 north...longitude 71.0 west
or about 325 miles...520 km...southeast of Cape Hatteras North
Carolina.
Hermine is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph ...17 km/hr. A
gradual turn to the north is expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...32.4 N... 71.0 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I should have qualified that with a "so far". They reported 112 kt winds in the supplementary vortex message.
Bill
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Per .....
Latest model runs are gradually shifting the track a
little more the north at the end of the forecast period. That
includes both the and the UK models which previously brough the
hurricane to near the Florida Keys or South Florida. These models
are still bringing the hurricane very close to Florida but at a
higher latitude. The official forecast remains unchanged and is
very close to the global model consensus. The next global model
runs will take advantage of data gather from the GPS dropsondes to
be launch from the NOAA high altitude jet. We will carefully
monitor the impact on these new observations in tonight's runs.........
Interesting to see how and if the models might change with the new data.....
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Maitland, FL
Unregistered
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I think that is just taking a little jog to the west, probably will resume wnw motion soon. I think that this system will probably go through a stair step motion because of little indentations in the ridge. I don't think we would know where its going to go for sure until Wednesday. 
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MikeG
Unregistered
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Something is going on with right now. I think another eyewll replacement looks to be taking shape. I am going to take a look at some recon data and see if that helps... something is up... think winds might go down overnight and refire in early morning....i thought it might be beacuse of the movement to the west durning mid-day threw the center off and allowed dry air to enter..... waiting to what hrd finds from data drops...
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Maitland, FL
Unregistered
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I was just about to say that, does seem like a eye replacment cycle is happening. Doesn't this mean it might intensify even further? :?:
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 90
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I see an eyewall replacement cycle as well. The storm is getting larger in overall size. All of these hurricanes breathe and flux at this stage.
Still don't know what to make of the fact I see just about due west...and yet long range forecasts haven't changed much. let's see...9 mph at 24 hours is another 230 miles west...extrapolating that...sure looks like a south florida hit to me...
Miami.....as a cat 4 or 5...then on to Mobile...
or....it will sweep the keys...and hit New Orleans.
Sure hope you Floridians get spared this one. I see a strike on the U.S. however...
How do our moderators see this?....
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Redbird
Unregistered
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How do you see this hitting south florida when the trends seem to pull it north? I think our area will be impacted instead. east central florida by melbourne and orlando. we are still not finished cleaning up after .
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