Lisa NC
Weather Guru
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Loc: North Carolina
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Was just looking at water vapor and shortwave and visible sats. Its looks to have good rotation and convection building at the center. IN front of (over the islands already). Maybe some models are picking this up?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
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Edited by Lisa NC (Tue Aug 31 2004 05:32 AM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Lisa, we have discussed this about 80 posts back...lol...it is an upper low out ahead of ...not a tropical surface low. For more info scroll back about 80 or so posts...
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Jason Kelley
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
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Loc: North Carolina
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Thank you Jason
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Just logged in. I'll have to say I second the kudos to Jason and the gang for the updates. You do a great job here.
I noticed the has added quite a few FL cities to the Strike Probs. Since I'm not much good at the models, I went back and checked their stats against . had Venice/ Ft Myers with the highest prob up to 36 hrs prior to landfall. I realize that just means that the possibility of the storm passing within 65nm was there. However, both of those cities continued to get higher probs. when was giving Tampa lower probs. That's just my opinion and not necessarily those of the management. It may be a storm by storm situation. They hit dead on with some and miss with the others.
With that said, Miami and West Palm both have the highest probs as of the 11pm Advisory. Both have a 7 in column 'D'.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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Yikes new model plots
new model plots
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http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Day 7
Anybody want to be in my shoes?
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Jason Kelley
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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Saw that, and a few other globals getting close to the same situation.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Florida
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Looks like we all will be in your shoes here in Central Florida two days before you. Another direct hit in Orlando seems to be the trend. I hope fools everone in the 11th hour like .
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Florida
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Quote:
Looks like we all will be in your shoes here in Central Florida two days before you. Another direct hit in Orlando seems to be the trend. I hope fools everone in the 11th hour like .
and steers it way right....sorry its late.......
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Charley surprised more than he fooled.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Has anybody noticed that the numerical models, well at least two of them, and maybe the as well, got feed something into them that caused to slow way, way down between 36-72 hrs.??? This is one of the most radical changes I've ever seen in a six hour period. Really goes completely against the 11pm forecast, as well as most of the eariler globals. Wonder what's going on with that?
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Kimmie in LA
Unregistered
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Hi Jason, my parents just moved to PCB. Do you have a handle on the probabilites of this thing entering the Gulf? Should I tell my folks to high tail it over to our house in Louisiana? I know that they are watching closely and will be wanting to make a decision by Thursday morning. Thanks for all you do. Kimmie
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Joe, judging from the number of dropsondes they released today I would venture to say they obtained quite a bit of extra data. I'm not sure if the data from that kind of dropsonde is comparable to the Gulfstream IV drops data. There should be some format that would let them utilize both types. Just my opinion.
Satellites are back up and looks quite a bit healthier than at 0345Z.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Kimmie,
In all honesty, tell them to watch me...it is WAAAAAY too early to make that call., but you can bet if the call needs to be made, I'll make it early and often.
If you or they have any questions I can answer, contact me directly.
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Jason Kelley
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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...21.0 63.5 308mb flight level wind070deg at 50kts.
That looks to be due west of the eye, at the western edge of the cloud mass. I'm not sure what 300mb equals in altitude, but it's fairly high. This is from the last recon observation at 0620Z.
**Clarification-this IS Not the new position, just a reporting position on the way into or out of the storm. They have to send a report every 20-30 minutes or so, with data in it, and that position was where they were on their way out it looks like. They make all kinds of criss-crosses and zig-zags sometimes.**
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 31 2004 07:12 AM)
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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welp they just got in there,,its not at 21N we can all see that, maybe 20 or was that just a misprint?
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Kimmie and others. You don't have to be registered, but if you will, when you can, register so we can send you Personal Messages without having to post them on the board. Then again, lots of the questions we have for the mets and others probably belong on the board. Thanks.
BTW-it's free to register!
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 31 2004 08:11 AM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Naahhhh....that was a recon leg report, not a vortex center fix....the center of is NOT at 21N, nor is that what the message says...the highest wind gust for that leg of the run was in that position.
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Jason Kelley
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Sorry about that! I went back and put a clarification of the bottom of the post.
They have 105nm legs they fly, criss-crossing the storm. The 105nm is not set in stone and they can alter the leg as they see fit. There are about 5 different patterns they fly and they appear to be headed out of the storm to turn left and make another pass through the storm. I'll see if I can find a link for you to look at.
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/alpha.htm
Better link, with more patterns.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/cyclo/
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 31 2004 07:25 AM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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with the pressure of bouncing around everywhere (948, 956, 945, 951) and not showing any general trend of continuous dropping, it is looking less likely that will reintensify to Cat IV
It also appears now that it will take the more southerly track as it has been moving nearly due west for about a day now
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