LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Bugs, both my main link to the & my FNMOC backup are down...can't imagine why.
>>> I wouldn't even venture into the city today even, us (LI Phil and me) are very worried about the fate of the city.
While I agree with the first part of your statement, about not venturing into the City (dats what we Lon Guylanders call it), I'm not particularly worried about the fate of the city. RNC, US Open Tennis (which is right next to Shea Stadium), local baseball...what a mess.
Coupla things, as long as I'm posting. I'm not too confident in much with this storm (Frances), but I am pretty confident of two things. US Mainland Strike and eventual recurvature (ie no Gulf mischief). Whether she recurves prior to a Florida landfall is the $50 billion question. For all you under the gun, I sure hope it does recurve, but then you're just shifting the danger further north. However, since FL has already taken a CAT IV this year, I vote we shift the danger north.
Second, this storm will definitely regain CAT IV status...question is...what status will it be at as landfall nears? That too is the $50 billion question. As rickonboat stated earlier, CAT IV's can be catastrophic (I didn't know that), and the damage inflicted is not additive but multiplicative.
Until Wednesday at the earliest, all we can do is watch and wait (and for anyone under the gun, PREPARE!). I'm sure will slightly shift tracks with each update. Listen to them...they are the experts. Gas up the vehicle, batten down the hatches, whatever you need to do...
And last but not least, as long as we're bashing , did you know that Maginot means "Welcome" in French?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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If a CAT 5 comes through Florida, which is not out of the question it would cause much more damage then a CAT 4, because the strength of wind is doubled by it's square or something along those lines.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
I don't know if that's what your looking for, but it works for me. By the way, great editorial/commentaries Ricreig and LI Phil. A bit of comic relief in this unfolding greek tragedy is greatly accepted.
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BillD
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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NRL site working for me here.
I think it is too early to tell. Still a chance that the rdige builids even stronger and pushes south of the Keys, not likely, but possible.
Bill
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etuck1516
Unregistered
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just went to lowes on amelia island they recvd 48 generators today and they were flying out of there tonight and will all be gone tomorrow. also mayport naval station has notified all crews of inport ships to cancel all weekend time off. this maybe the real deal our luck up here has been too good.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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seems to have gone out for about 10 minutes
btw, is it me, or is looking more ragged on satellite imagery?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
also, go to
Gaston is now a tropical storm again
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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Gaston's back -- the put out a 7pm update to say that they will be issuing the next advisory on the storm, as opposed to the HPC, at 11pm. Their webpage now references Tropical Storm Gaston yet again, as opposed to Tropical Depression Gaston. I think the center is trying to reform a bit further north, nearest the strongest convection south of the D.C. area, and would not be surprised to see a minimal tropical storm for a day or two over the Atlantic.
Other topics of interest -- Hermine is basically shooting out from it's convection and well on it's way to being declassified. Don't think it has too much longer before it's done -- and I'm not even sure it'll make much of an system either.
Frances is the big topic, and one on which I'm going to ignore the football posts here as they aren't relevant. If the storm goes through here, the game just gets moved to later in the season...and no, the model here has no "football coefficient." In any case, the storm is going through a minor period of flux while the new, larger eye gets itself together. Later tonight or tomorrow morning, I expect we'll see a storm looking a lot like Isabel did last year with a large eye (last recon reported a 45mi eye), albeit at a weaker intensity. For now though, it has been obscured.
The upper low to it's west is retrograding to the west and I expect it to either dissipate or, at the least, not have a major influence on the storm; right now, the ridge is building in around it. The trough to the west may be held up just a bit by Gaston, assuming it lingers around a bit. It will pick up at some point -- but when is the big key. still could miss the coast entirely, but that possibility is growing slimmer by the hour. The keeps trending west, the AVN is still pretty far south, and the UKMET takes the storm in over Miami and then up Apalachee Bay -- not a good scenario. Coupled with the Superensemble model I referenced before and talks with some people here, I feel like Florida is very much under the gun from this one. Everyone up and down the coast needs to be wary, but those in Florida - east, west, and Gulf coasts - need to pay close attention. Model consensus right now says Cape Canveral and the Superensemble says north Miami. Intensity? Most models are near the cat3/4 level in 5 days, with a peak just before then. In other words, this could be the first year since 1916 - and first unambiguous year since before 1900 - with two U.S. landfall cat. 4+ storms.
In other words -- stay tuned.
The invest off of Africa is decently organized, but it's pretty far to the north and I think the mid and low-level circulations may well be separated by a few degrees of latitude -- that or the thing shooting west ahead of the main convection is a figment of my imagination. It's got developmental potential, but is most likely one for the fish and not something that will develop rapidly (if much at all). If it doesn't do it soon, it'll meet it's demise in the westerlies near 20°N. The wave just off of Africa has more potential to be a long-tracker; the particularly likes it, while other models pick up on something out there. We are near the peak of the season, so anything's possible.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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No...Bill..I don't think waiting until Wednesday is lame at all. I was telling everyone at work (since they know I read and post this forum) to wait until Wednesday then I might tell you something. It is better to wait and watch rather than to cause what might be unecessary panic. Not to make lite' of everyones concerns, but we have a couple of days. Let the professionals guide you in your evacuation plan. And be careful even at that. fooled a few out there in the 11th hour. With fluctuating in speed like today, the forecasted models will vary more than a storm that has a more consistant speed.
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Glad to see the site back up.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
over the Bahamas now, another low trying to form?
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
If you need plywood, there are plenty of candidate signs around. Come tomorrow if you know who lost the primary elections I don’t think they will mind if you clean up there signs. Just joking , better ask before you take! 
Those things have to be indestructible. I think every single one of the survived !
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Here is an email I received at 9:30 pm from a friend who is a meteorologist. What do you guys think of it?
Hurricane Francis seems to be experiencing less SW wind shear at this moment and eyewall reorganization/replacement seems to be finished for now, so she may be slowly strengthening again. As I forecasted though, it's pretty clear that she will be north of 20 deg. north latitude when she reaches 63 deg. west latitude. So at worst the northern Leeward Islands "will" experience tropical storm force wind gusts. She still has to fight some shearing though through approximately 70 deg. west longitude, so I do not expect rapid strengthening to a CAT 5 in the next few days.
I'm getting an enormous amount of email from old customers, friends, storm chasers and even foes but have really said little about other then on a couple of hobby weather eGroups. BUT if I were still in business I would be warning customers of a better then 60% chance of landfall on the SE coast of Florida next weekend. A Miami to Fort Myers track or maybe a Ft. Lauderdale to Sarasota track, hard to say that far in advance. A landfall forecast error of under 200 miles would be pretty good this many days out.
I've looked at all of the models again today and I see a continuing westward track bias. But as most already know I feel that if you live by the model you die by the model. But if you ignore what the models say about an actual track for and look at what weather systems are in place now and what's being progged at mid levels over mid latitudes in North America, it's a no brainer. My hoped for mid level weakness to be left behind by Hurricane Gaston and Tropical Storm Hermine will not linger or even exist. And the strong longwave trough will be out over the western U.S. and unable to eject shortwaves SE-E'ward due to strong ridging along the U.S. East Coast . Hurricanes turn NW into troughs when within approximately 10 deg. west longitude. So there is nothing to turn NW-N east of Florida like I originally hoped for.
BUT what does a lower latitude more westward track mean if it continues to occur? The good news would be a close brush with Hispaniola and/or Cuba. This close brush would continue to inhibit ' growth to a CAT 5 cyclone, even knock her back to a CAT 3. Also like with CAT 4 Hurricane coming ashore in SW Florida, speed divergence could pull ' eye wall onshore into one of the Great Antilles further disrupting the cyclone.
We can also hope for an unseen unprogged disturbance in the subtropical jet stream sneaking in under a dirty ridge to turn NW-N east of Florida but that's unlikely.
A note though, last year while in semi retirement I committed to a similar forecast on Hurricane Isabel making a landfall on the east coast of Florida, when she reached approximately 22 N 60 W. At this time though is at approximately 19.5 N 60 W, but that southerly difference in latitude can make all the difference. In any event last years forecast brought upon me a blistering attack by the media and colleagues. I was even accused of being obsessed and neurotic.
Once again though I add this disclaimer. As I've officially retired from space and atmospheric weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is lower as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Upper level low...that has been discussed in previous posts.
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Jason Kelley
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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Clark,
Great post as always. Since everyone else is talking about , I'd rather comment on the rest. I did not think we had seen the last of Gaston, and think we might get 24-48 hours of a TS still. As far as the invest, I agree with you, and I don't think it is a figment of your imagination (either that or we are both imagining the same thing). This system is literally all over the map. It needs to get its act together or it isn't going to end up as anything.
Bill
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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It will begin to weaken as the eye replacement cycle takes place, as the one eye is cut off and the new eye forms, it's like it sheding it's skin. Glad to see the site back up
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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I live on South Merritt Island (between Melbourne and Cocoa Beach)...the house was built after the new March Hurricane code and was build to withstand 130 mph winds. I also added the heaviest aluminum panels for all coverings which are rated for Cat 5. The flood maps say it would take a Cat 5 to flood here as we are one of the higher locations on the island. My question is this...what threshold would you evacuate for...I am thinking about 110 to 120 mph. I am worried that we won't find somewhere to evacuate to and get caught on the road.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Its a valid worry. I spent a lot of time in Wachula after and I know they have old Building codes but I saw brick buildings demolished.
I would leave if approaches as a Cat 3 or better. Decide early and go. If misses you then all you will have done is waste a little time and money.
My opinion.
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Jara
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I could see this thing doing like Hurricane Erin in 1995 (or Andrew). Going over South or Central Florida-and entering the gulf to make a second landfall.
It could hit FL then skim the coast up to the Carolinas.
Could miss Florida altogether and hit the Carolinas AKA Floyd?
Who knows?
I think it's going to stay South of where the track is and hit near the Florida Keys.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The Florida Division of Emergency Mgmt. has a hurricane evacuation map available through their public mapping tool at:
http://public.mapping.floridadisaster.org/PublicMap/index.htm
You will have to zoom pretty close in on an area of interest to be able to check the "Evacuation Zone" map. You can also see storm surge maps for the coastal zones as well.
For instance, the Merritt Island area is rated, in parts, at Cat 5 storm surge, but the entire area is rated as evacuation for a Cat 1 storm. It's entirely up to the person there to make the final decision, but knowing that area at least somewhat well, I'd be inland if a storm was threatening - at least in Cocoa or Melbourne or someplace off of the islands.
The map is a pretty useful tool for those of you in Florida; if you get a chance, check it out. It requires you to install a plug-in from Autodesk, but it's not spyware or anything (for those worried about that).
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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I live in Titusville, and if this thing brings wind less than 90 mph, I'll be going on my thirteenth storm chase
the first were:
TS Jerry 1995, 40 mph (not technically a "chase", but i consider it one because on teh bus ride home from school I got a few pics
Coastal storm, March 1996, 60 mph (parents drove)
Bertha, 1996 at beach after storm missed
Earl 1998-outer bands
Georges, 1998-outer bands (from north Titusville)
Mitch, 1998--65 mph winds at concrete/metal pier at Jetty Park near Cocoa Beach
Floyd, 1999-60 mph, morning after
Irene, 1999-morning at peak 65 mph
Gabrielle, 2001, 60 mph
Henri, 03--actually walked because the wind was only 30 with very light rain
severe storm, 6-7-04, Melbourne to Titusville, first I drove in
Hurricane , 85mph, first hurricane Ive chased on my own
dont really know if my several attempts from my car to photograph lightning count as storm chases
If brings winds higher than 90mph I'll be doing all the chasing form inside my house
(I am certain the winds will not exceed 100mph)
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